Pauline Hanson in Parliament
Q. Pauline Hanson has announced she will run for the Senate in New South Wales in the next Federal election. How likely would Pauline Hanson be to make a positive contribution to Federal Parliament?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
Julian Assange Apr 13 |
|
| Total likely |
30% |
27% |
34% |
13% |
32% |
||
| Total not likely |
58% |
62% |
58% |
78% |
50% |
||
| Very likely |
10% |
7% |
10% |
4% |
12% |
||
| Somewhat likely |
20% |
20% |
24% |
9% |
20% |
||
| Not very likely |
20% |
17% |
24% |
23% |
25% |
||
| Not at all likely |
38% |
45% |
34% |
55% |
25% |
||
| Don’t know |
12% |
11% |
8% |
8% |
17% |
30% think it is very or somewhat likely that Pauline Hanson would make a positive contribution if elected to Federal Parliament and 58% think it is not very or not at all likely. Those most likely to think she would make a positive contribution were Liberal/National voters (34%), voters for other parties or independents (48%) and those on incomes less than $600pw (38%).
When a similar question was asked about Julian Assange in April, 32% thought it likely he would make a positive contribution and 50% thought it not likely.
Updated: NSW State Voting Intention
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| First preference /leaning to | Total | Men | Women | Sydney | Other NSW | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ |
| Sample | 971 | 481 | 490 | 622 | 349 | 309 | 391 | 271 |
| Labor | 23% | 23% | 24% | 20% | 29% | 21% | 24% | 25% |
| Liberal/National | 55% | 56% | 53% | 60% | 46% | 55% | 54% | 55% |
| Greens | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 9% |
| Independent/Other | 11% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 15% | 10% | 13% | 11% |
| 2PP | ||||||||
| Labor | 34% | 33% | 35% | 29% | 42% | 32% | 35% | 34% |
| Liberal/National | 66% | 67% | 65% | 71% | 58% | 68% | 65% | 66% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by separately distributing the votes of the Greens and the Independents/other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. This calculation excludes exhausted votes.
NSW State Voting Intention
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| First preference /leaning to | Total | Men | Women | Sydney | Other NSW | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ |
| Sample | 967 | 483 | 484 | 615 | 352 | 300 | 396 | 271 |
| Labor | 24% | 24% | 23% | 21% | 27% | 25% | 23% | 23% |
| Liberal/National | 54% | 54% | 53% | 57% | 47% | 50% | 53% | 58% |
| Greens | 12% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 9% |
| Independent/Other | 11% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 11% | 11% |
| 2PP | ||||||||
| Labor | 35% | 35% | 35% | 31% | 41% | 38% | 35% | 32% |
| Liberal/National | 65% | 65% | 65% | 69% | 59% | 62% | 65% | 68% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by separately distributing the votes of the Greens and the Independents/other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. This calculation excludes exhausted votes.
NSW State Voting Intention
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| First preference/leaning to
(sample) |
Jan/Feb 2011
(1,247) |
Sept/Oct 10
(1,953) |
Election
Mar 07 |
Change |
| Liberal/National | 51% | 50% | 37.0% | +14.0% |
| Labor | 27% | 29% | 39.0% | -12.0% |
| Greens | 12% | 11% | 9.0% | +3.0% |
| Other/Independent | 11% | 10% | 15.0% | -4.0% |
| 2PP | Jan/Feb 2011 | Sept/Oct 10 | Election
Mar 07 |
Change |
| Liberal/National | 59% | 58% | 47.7% | +11.3% |
| Labor | 41% | 42% | 52.3% | -11.3% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 4-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election.
NSW State Voting Intention – Demographic Analysis
| First preference /leaning to | Total | Men | Women | Sydney | Other NSW | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ |
| Sample | 1248 | 625 | 623 | 799 | 449 | 404 | 491 | 353 |
| Labor | 27% | 27% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 20% |
| Liberal/National | 51% | 49% | 53% | 54% | 46% | 46% | 48% | 59% |
| Greens | 12% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 9% | 15% | 12% | 8% |
| Independent/Other | 11% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 15% | 7% | 11% | 13% |
| 2PP | ||||||||
| Labor | 41% | 42% | 40% | 39% | 44% | 46% | 43% | 32% |
| Liberal/National | 59% | 58% | 60% | 61% | 56% | 54% | 57% | 68% |
NSW – voting intention
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,953
| First preference/leaning to | Total | Election
Mar 07 |
Change |
| Liberal | 47% | 26.9% | |
| National | 3% | 10.1% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 50% | 37.0% | +13.0% |
| Labor | 29% | 39.0% | -10.0% |
| Greens | 11% | 9.0% | +2.0% |
| Other/Independent | 10% | 15.0% | -5.0% |
| 2PP | Total | Election
Mar 07 |
Change |
| Total Lib/Nat | 58% | 47.7% | +10.3% |
| Labor | 42% | 52.3% | -10.3% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 6-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. Comments »
Special Essential Report – Federal Voting Intention by State
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
First preference
| Total | NSW | Victoria | Queensland | SA | WA | |
| Liberal | 40% | 42% | 37% | 42% | 39% | 47% |
| National | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | – | 2% |
| Coalition | 43% | 46% | 40% | 46% | 40% | 49% |
| Labor | 40% | 38% | 43% | 36% | 39% | 37% |
| Greens | 10% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 10% |
| Others | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 5% |
2PP
| Total | NSW | Victoria | Queensland | SA | WA | |
| Liberal/National | 49% | 52% | 45% | 53% | 46% | 53% |
| Labor | 51% | 48% | 55% | 47% | 54% | 47% |
| Labor 2PP 2007 election | 52.7% | 53.7% | 54.3% | 50.4% | 52.4% | 46.7% |
| Shift in Labor vote since 2007 election | -1.7 | -5.7 | +0.7 | -3.4 | +1.6 | +0.3 |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
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