Pauline Hanson in Parliament

Jun 11, 2013

Q. Pauline Hanson has announced she will run for the Senate in New South Wales in the next Federal election. How likely would Pauline Hanson be to make a positive contribution to Federal Parliament?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

 

Julian Assange Apr 13

Total likely

30%

27%

34%

13%

32%

Total not likely

58%

62%

58%

78%

50%

Very likely

10%

7%

10%

4%

12%

Somewhat likely

20%

20%

24%

9%

20%

Not very likely

20%

17%

24%

23%

25%

Not at all likely

38%

45%

34%

55%

25%

Don’t know

12%

11%

8%

8%

17%

30% think it is very or somewhat likely that Pauline Hanson would make a positive contribution if elected to Federal Parliament and 58% think it is not very or not at all likely. Those most likely to think she would make a positive contribution were Liberal/National voters (34%), voters for other parties or independents (48%) and those on incomes less than $600pw (38%).

When a similar question was asked about Julian Assange in April, 32% thought it likely he would make a positive contribution and 50% thought it not likely.

Updated: NSW State Voting Intention

Mar 23, 2011

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

First preference /leaning to Total Men Women Sydney Other NSW Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Sample 971 481 490 622 349 309 391 271
Labor 23% 23% 24% 20% 29% 21% 24% 25%
Liberal/National 55% 56% 53% 60% 46% 55% 54% 55%
Greens 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 14% 9% 9%
Independent/Other 11% 10% 12% 10% 15% 10% 13% 11%
2PP
Labor 34% 33% 35% 29% 42% 32% 35% 34%
Liberal/National 66% 67% 65% 71% 58% 68% 65% 66%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by separately distributing the votes of the Greens and the Independents/other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. This calculation excludes exhausted votes.

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NSW State Voting Intention

Mar 18, 2011

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

First preference /leaning to Total Men Women Sydney Other NSW Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Sample 967 483 484 615 352 300 396 271
Labor 24% 24% 23% 21% 27% 25% 23% 23%
Liberal/National 54% 54% 53% 57% 47% 50% 53% 58%
Greens 12% 12% 13% 12% 13% 15% 13% 9%
Independent/Other 11% 10% 11% 9% 13% 10% 11% 11%
2PP
Labor 35% 35% 35% 31% 41% 38% 35% 32%
Liberal/National 65% 65% 65% 69% 59% 62% 65% 68%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by separately distributing the votes of the Greens and the Independents/other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. This calculation excludes exhausted votes.

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NSW State Voting Intention

Feb 18, 2011

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

First preference/leaning to

(sample)

Jan/Feb 2011

(1,247)

Sept/Oct 10

(1,953)

Election

Mar 07

Change
Liberal/National 51% 50% 37.0% +14.0%
Labor 27% 29% 39.0% -12.0%
Greens 12% 11% 9.0% +3.0%
Other/Independent 11% 10% 15.0% -4.0%
2PP Jan/Feb 2011 Sept/Oct 10 Election

Mar 07

Change
Liberal/National 59% 58% 47.7% +11.3%
Labor 41% 42% 52.3% -11.3%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 4-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election.

NSW State Voting Intention – Demographic Analysis

Feb 18, 2011
First preference /leaning to Total Men Women Sydney Other NSW 18-34 35-54 55+
Sample 1248 625 623 799 449 404 491 353
Labor 27% 27% 27% 26% 30% 31% 29% 20%
Liberal/National 51% 49% 53% 54% 46% 46% 48% 59%
Greens 12% 12% 12% 13% 9% 15% 12% 8%
Independent/Other 11% 13% 9% 7% 15% 7% 11% 13%
2PP
Labor 41% 42% 40% 39% 44% 46% 43% 32%
Liberal/National 59% 58% 60% 61% 56% 54% 57% 68%

NSW – voting intention

Nov 5, 2010

 

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,953

First preference/leaning to  Total Election

Mar 07

Change
Liberal 47% 26.9%  
National 3% 10.1%  
Total Lib/Nat 50% 37.0% +13.0%
Labor 29% 39.0% -10.0%
Greens 11% 9.0% +2.0%
Other/Independent 10% 15.0% -5.0%

 

2PP Total Election

Mar 07

Change
Total Lib/Nat 58% 47.7% +10.3%
Labor 42% 52.3% -10.3%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 6-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. Comments »

Special Essential Report – Federal Voting Intention by State

Aug 17, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

First preference

Total NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA
Liberal 40% 42% 37% 42% 39% 47%
National 3% 4% 3% 4% 2%
Coalition 43% 46% 40% 46% 40% 49%
Labor 40% 38% 43% 36% 39% 37%
Greens 10% 7% 11% 10% 12% 10%
Others 7% 8% 6% 8% 9% 5%

2PP

Total NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA
Liberal/National 49% 52% 45% 53% 46% 53%
Labor 51% 48% 55% 47% 54% 47%
Labor 2PP 2007 election 52.7% 53.7% 54.3% 50.4% 52.4% 46.7%
Shift in Labor vote since 2007 election -1.7 -5.7 +0.7 -3.4 +1.6 +0.3

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

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