Essential Report

Angry Punter’s NSW Election Form Guide

Mar 25, 2011

Tomorrow voters across NSW will be lining up to take a punt on their next government.  Who are the favourites, who are the outsiders, and where are the value bets?  The Angry Punter has cast his eye over the political horse flesh and provided his tips exclusively for The Unspun.

Race 1 – Premier of NSW Cup

This is supposedly a two-horse race, but the burly stallion Bazza O’Fazza will start at shorter odds than Black Caviar.  Little value for punters in this one.

Bazza O’Fazza – Long considered to be little more than a plodder, Bazza O’Fazza has developed into a genuine stayer with a wily sense of timing.  Has been set for this race, and will be very hard to beat.

Nobody’s Puppet – The imported glamour filly from has always been highly regarded, but has been hampered by a terrible preparation this time around.  A number of her ALP stable mates have been very frisky in the mounting yards, and this has caused endless distractions for young trainer Sam Dastyari.  Nobody’s Puppet has earned respect for simply getting to the starting gates under the circumstances.  Anything better than last by 15 lengths will be considered a success.

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Updated: NSW State Voting Intention

Mar 23, 2011

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

First preference /leaning to Total Men Women Sydney Other NSW Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Sample 971 481 490 622 349 309 391 271
Labor 23% 23% 24% 20% 29% 21% 24% 25%
Liberal/National 55% 56% 53% 60% 46% 55% 54% 55%
Greens 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 14% 9% 9%
Independent/Other 11% 10% 12% 10% 15% 10% 13% 11%
2PP
Labor 34% 33% 35% 29% 42% 32% 35% 34%
Liberal/National 66% 67% 65% 71% 58% 68% 65% 66%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by separately distributing the votes of the Greens and the Independents/other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. This calculation excludes exhausted votes.

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NSW State Voting Intention

Mar 18, 2011

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

First preference /leaning to Total Men Women Sydney Other NSW Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Sample 967 483 484 615 352 300 396 271
Labor 24% 24% 23% 21% 27% 25% 23% 23%
Liberal/National 54% 54% 53% 57% 47% 50% 53% 58%
Greens 12% 12% 13% 12% 13% 15% 13% 9%
Independent/Other 11% 10% 11% 9% 13% 10% 11% 11%
2PP
Labor 35% 35% 35% 31% 41% 38% 35% 32%
Liberal/National 65% 65% 65% 69% 59% 62% 65% 68%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by separately distributing the votes of the Greens and the Independents/other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. This calculation excludes exhausted votes.

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