Federal voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | Last week 11/7/17 | 2 weeks ago 4/7/17 | 4 weeks ago 20/6/17 | Election 2 Jul 16 | |||
| Liberal | 33% | 33% | 35% | 35% | |||
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 36% | 36% | 38% | 38% | 42.0% | ||
| Labor | 38% | 36% | 36% | 35% | 34.7% | ||
| Greens | 10% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 10.2% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 7% | 7% | 7% | 9% | |||
| Other/Independent | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 13.1% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 46% | 46% | 47% | 48% | 50.4% | ||
| Labor | 54% | 54% | 53% | 52% | 49.6% |
NB. Sample = 1,830. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.
Federal voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | Last week 2/5/17 | 2 weeks ago 25/4/17 | 4 weeks ago 11/4/17 | Election 2 Jul 16 | |||
| Liberal | 35% | 35% | 34% | 35% | |||
| National | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 37% | 38% | 37% | 37% | 42.0% | ||
| Labor | 38% | 37% | 36% | 36% | 34.7% | ||
| Greens | 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10.2% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | |||
| Other/Independent | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 13.1% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 46% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 50.4% | ||
| Labor | 54% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 49.6% |
Sample = 1,795. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.
Federal voting intention
Q: If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | Last week
17/5/16 |
2 weeks ago
10/5/16 |
4 weeks ago
26/4/16 |
Election 7 Sep 13 | |||
| Liberal | 38% | 39% | 38% | 36% | |||
| National | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 41% | 42% | 42% | 40% | 45.6% | ||
| Labor | 37% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 33.4% | ||
| Greens | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 8.6% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 3% | 3% | na | na | – | ||
| Palmer United Party | na | na | 1% | 1% | 5.5% | ||
| Other/Independent | 9% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 6.9% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 49% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 53.5% | ||
| Labor | 51% | 51% | 51% | 52% | 46.5% |
NB. Sample = 1,794. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal voting intention
If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Total |
|
Last week5/4/16 |
2 weeks ago29/3/16 |
4 weeks ago15/3/16 |
|
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
| Liberal | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% | |||
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 42% | 42% | 43% | 42% | 45.6% | ||
| Labor | 35% | 37% | 38% | 36% | 33.4% | ||
| Greens | 11% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 8.6% | ||
| Palmer United Party | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5.5% | ||
| Other/Independent | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 6.9% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 53.5% | ||
| Labor | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 46.5% |
NB. Sample = 1,792. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q: If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q: If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
(sample size = 1,774 respondents)
| First preference/leaning to | Election
7 Sep 13 |
4 weeks ago
8/09/15 |
2 weeks ago 22/09/15 | Last week
29/9/15 |
This week 6/10/15 | |
| Liberal | 36% | 37% | 40% | 41% | ||
| National | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | ||
| Total Liberal/National | 45.6% | 40% | 41% | 44% | 44% | |
| Labor | 33.4% | 38% | 37% | 35% | 35% | |
| Greens | 8.6% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | |
| Palmer United Party | 5.5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | |
| Other/Independent | 6.9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| 2 Party Preferred | Election
7 Sep 13 |
4 weeks ago
8/09/15 |
2 weeks ago 22/09/15 | Last week
29/9/15 |
This week 6/10/15 | |
| Liberal National | 53.5% | 48% | 49% | 52% | 52% | |
| Labor | 46.5% | 52% | 51% | 48% | 48% |
NB. Except The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,781 respondents
|
First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
4 weeks ago 9/6/15 |
2 weeks ago 23/6/15 |
Last week 30/6/15 |
This week 7/7/15 |
|
|
Liberal |
38% |
38% |
38% |
38% |
||
|
National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
||
|
Total Liberal/National |
45.6% |
41% |
41% |
41% |
41% |
|
|
Labor |
33.4% |
40% |
39% |
39% |
39% |
|
|
Greens |
8.6% |
9% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
|
|
Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
|
Other/Independent |
6.9% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
|
2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
4 weeks ago 9/6/15 |
2 weeks ago 23/6/15 |
Last week 30/6/15 |
This week 7/7/15 |
|
|
Liberal National |
53.5% |
48% |
48% |
47% |
48% |
|
|
Labor |
46.5% |
52% |
52% |
53% |
52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Occupation by voting intention
Q. Which of the following best describes your occupation?
|
First preference/leaning to |
Total |
Profess- ional |
Manager |
Admin or sales |
Trades |
|
Home duties |
Retired |
Not working |
Student |
|
|
Labor |
39% |
39% |
27% |
36% |
42% |
|
45% |
43% |
33% |
48% |
|
|
Liberal/National |
41% |
41% |
48% |
50% |
39% |
|
42% |
41% |
28% |
21% |
|
|
Greens |
11% |
11% |
15% |
9% |
4% |
|
3% |
6% |
13% |
25% |
|
|
Other/Independent |
9% |
9% |
11% |
6% |
15% |
|
11% |
9% |
26% |
6% |
Those more likely to vote Labor were home duties (45%) and students (48%).
Those more likely to vote Liberal/National were managers (48%), admin/sales (50%) and semi/unskilled workers (46%).
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,796 respondents
|
First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
4 weeks ago 19/5/15 |
2 weeks ago 2/6/15 |
Last week 9/6/15 |
This week 16/6/15 |
|
|
Liberal |
38% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
||
|
National |
3% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
||
|
Total Liberal/National |
45.6% |
41% |
41% |
41% |
42% |
|
|
Labor |
33.4% |
39% |
40% |
40% |
39% |
|
|
Greens |
8.6% |
10% |
10% |
9% |
10% |
|
|
Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
|
Other/Independent |
6.9% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
|
2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
4 weeks ago 19/5/15 |
2 weeks ago 2/6/15 |
Last week 9/6/15 |
This week 16/6/15 |
|
|
Liberal National |
53.5% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
|
|
Labor |
46.5% |
52% |
52% |
52% |
52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 14 May 2019
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