Essential Report

Federal voting intention

Jul 20, 2021

Q. If a federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?

[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?

Q       This week

19/07

Two weeks ago

05/07

21/06 07/06 24/05 10/05 26/04 12/04 29/03 15/03 01/03 15/02
Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals 34% 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 36% 34% 36% 35% 35% 36%
Nationals 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3%
Total: Coalition 37% 37% 38% 38% 37% 38% 39% 37% 39% 38% 37% 39%
Labor 36% 36% 36% 35% 35% 36% 34% 36% 36% 34% 34% 35%
Greens 10% 8% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 10% 8% 9% 9% 8%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%
Other/Independent 6% 5% 5% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7%
Undecided 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6%
 
2 Party Preferred (2PP+)
TOTAL: Coalition 45% 44% 45% 44% 44% 44% 46% 45% 46% 47% 45% 47%
Labor 47% 48% 47% 48% 48% 48% 46% 48% 47% 47% 48% 47%
Undecided 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6%

 

Federal Voting Intention

Feb 2, 2021

Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?

[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?

Q       This week

01/02

Two weeks ago

18/01

14/12 30/11 16/11 02/11 19/10
Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals 35% 37% 34% 37% 36% 36% 36%
Nationals 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Total: Coalition 37% 40% 37% 41% 38% 39% 39%
Labor 35% 33% 35% 33% 35% 35% 35%
Greens 10% 10% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3%
Other/Independent 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 7%
Undecided 8% 7% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8%
 
2 Party Preferred (2PP+)
TOTAL: Coalition 44% 48% 45% 49% 45% 44% 48%
Labor 47% 45% 46% 43% 47% 46% 45%
Undecided 8% 7% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8%

 

Federal Voting Intention

Jul 28, 2020

Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?

[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?

  This week

27/07

Two weeks ago

13/07

29/06 22/06 15/06 08/06
Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals 36% 35% 36% 37% 36% 37%
Nationals 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3%
Total: Coalition 38% 37% 39% 39% 38% 40%
Labor 35% 34% 33% 33% 35% 33%
Greens 9% 10% 9% 10% 9% 9%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4%
Other/Independent 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6%
Undecided 8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 8%
             
2 Party Preferred (2PP+)            
TOTAL: Coalition 45% 45% 47% 48% 47% 47%
Labor 47% 46% 45% 46% 47% 45%
Undecided 8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 8%

 

Federal parliament sittings

Jul 27, 2020

Q. Which of the following solutions would you prefer was used by the Federal parliament given the travel restrictions mean some MPs are not able to attend sessions in Canberra in person?

    Voting intention
  Total Labor NET: Coalition Greens NET: Other
Parliament sitting face-to-face as normal with social distancing in place for those who can attend 17% 16% 20% 18% 20%
Parliament sitting face-to-face with video conference for those who cannot attend in person 57% 59% 57% 64% 62%
Parliament not sitting until travel restrictions are relaxed for all MPs 13% 15% 14% 8% 9%
Unsure 13% 10% 9% 10% 10%
Base (n) 1,058 334 428 81 107

 

    Gender Age group
  Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+
Parliament sitting face-to-face as normal with social distancing in place for those who can attend 17% 21% 13% 21% 18% 12%
Parliament sitting face-to-face with video conference for those who cannot attend in person 57% 55% 59% 46% 53% 72%
Parliament not sitting until travel restrictions are relaxed for all MPs 13% 14% 12% 18% 13% 9%
Unsure 13% 9% 16% 15% 16% 8%
Base (n) 1,058 538 520 341 331 386

 

The large majority of people want to see parliament continue to sit, either with social distancing measures, (17%), or using video conferencing options (57%). Only 13% would prefer parliament not to sit during the travel restrictions due to Covid-19.

Federal voting intention

May 9, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 2/5/17 2 weeks ago 25/4/17 4 weeks ago 11/4/17   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 35%   35% 34% 35%    
National 2%   2% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 37%   38% 37% 37%   42.0%
Labor 38%   37% 36% 36%   34.7%
Greens 10%   9% 10% 10%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 6%   7% 8% 8%    
Other/Independent 6%   6% 6% 6%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 46%   47% 47% 47%   50.4%
Labor 54%   53% 53% 53%   49.6%

Sample = 1,795. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Federal voting intention

May 24, 2016

Q: If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

17/5/16

2 weeks ago

10/5/16

4 weeks ago

26/4/16

  Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 38%   39% 38% 36%    
National 3%   3% 4% 4%    
Total Liberal/National 41%   42% 42% 40%   45.6%
Labor 37%   38% 38% 39%   33.4%
Greens 9%   9% 10% 10%   8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% na na  
Palmer United Party na   na 1% 1%   5.5%
Other/Independent 9%   8% 9% 11%   6.9%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 49%   49% 49% 48%   53.5%
Labor 51%   51% 51% 52%   46.5%

NB. Sample = 1,794. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Federal voting intention

Apr 12, 2016

If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

 
Total
 
Last week
5/4/16
2 weeks ago
29/3/16
4 weeks ago
15/3/16
 
Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 39% 39% 39% 39%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Liberal/National 42%   42% 43% 42%   45.6%
Labor 35%   37% 38% 36%   33.4%
Greens 11% 10% 9% 11% 8.6%
Palmer United Party 1% 1% 1% 1% 5.5%
Other/Independent 10% 10% 10% 9% 6.9%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 50% 50% 50% 50% 53.5%
Labor 50% 50% 50% 50% 46.5%

NB.  Sample = 1,792. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 6, 2015

Q: If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q: If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

(sample size = 1,774 respondents)

First preference/leaning to Election

7 Sep 13

  4 weeks ago

8/09/15

2 weeks ago 22/09/15 Last week

29/9/15

This week 6/10/15
Liberal   36% 37% 40% 41%
National 4% 4% 4% 3%
Total Liberal/National 45.6% 40% 41% 44% 44%
Labor 33.4% 38% 37% 35% 35%
Greens 8.6% 11% 11% 11% 10%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 2% 2% 2% 1%
Other/Independent 6.9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
2 Party Preferred Election

7 Sep 13

  4 weeks ago

8/09/15

2 weeks ago 22/09/15 Last week

29/9/15

This week 6/10/15
Liberal National 53.5% 48% 49% 52% 52%
Labor 46.5% 52% 51% 48% 48%

NB. Except The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

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