Federal Voting Intention
Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?
[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?
| Q | This week
01/02 |
Two weeks ago
18/01 |
14/12 | 30/11 | 16/11 | 02/11 | 19/10 |
| Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals | 35% | 37% | 34% | 37% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| Nationals | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total: Coalition | 37% | 40% | 37% | 41% | 38% | 39% | 39% |
| Labor | 35% | 33% | 35% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Greens | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 7% |
| Undecided | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% |
| 2 Party Preferred (2PP+) | |||||||
| TOTAL: Coalition | 44% | 48% | 45% | 49% | 45% | 44% | 48% |
| Labor | 47% | 45% | 46% | 43% | 47% | 46% | 45% |
| Undecided | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% |
Federal Voting Intention
Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?
[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?
| This week
27/07 |
Two weeks ago
13/07 |
29/06 | 22/06 | 15/06 | 08/06 | |
| Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals | 36% | 35% | 36% | 37% | 36% | 37% |
| Nationals | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Total: Coalition | 38% | 37% | 39% | 39% | 38% | 40% |
| Labor | 35% | 34% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 33% |
| Greens | 9% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% |
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 4% |
| Other/Independent | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
| Undecided | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
| 2 Party Preferred (2PP+) | ||||||
| TOTAL: Coalition | 45% | 45% | 47% | 48% | 47% | 47% |
| Labor | 47% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 45% |
| Undecided | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
Federal parliament sittings
Q. Which of the following solutions would you prefer was used by the Federal parliament given the travel restrictions mean some MPs are not able to attend sessions in Canberra in person?
| Voting intention | |||||
| Total | Labor | NET: Coalition | Greens | NET: Other | |
| Parliament sitting face-to-face as normal with social distancing in place for those who can attend | 17% | 16% | 20% | 18% | 20% |
| Parliament sitting face-to-face with video conference for those who cannot attend in person | 57% | 59% | 57% | 64% | 62% |
| Parliament not sitting until travel restrictions are relaxed for all MPs | 13% | 15% | 14% | 8% | 9% |
| Unsure | 13% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% |
| Base (n) | 1,058 | 334 | 428 | 81 | 107 |
| Gender | Age group | ||||||
| Total | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | ||
| Parliament sitting face-to-face as normal with social distancing in place for those who can attend | 17% | 21% | 13% | 21% | 18% | 12% | |
| Parliament sitting face-to-face with video conference for those who cannot attend in person | 57% | 55% | 59% | 46% | 53% | 72% | |
| Parliament not sitting until travel restrictions are relaxed for all MPs | 13% | 14% | 12% | 18% | 13% | 9% | |
| Unsure | 13% | 9% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 8% | |
| Base (n) | 1,058 | 538 | 520 | 341 | 331 | 386 | |
The large majority of people want to see parliament continue to sit, either with social distancing measures, (17%), or using video conferencing options (57%). Only 13% would prefer parliament not to sit during the travel restrictions due to Covid-19.
Federal voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | Last week 2/5/17 | 2 weeks ago 25/4/17 | 4 weeks ago 11/4/17 | Election 2 Jul 16 | |||
| Liberal | 35% | 35% | 34% | 35% | |||
| National | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 37% | 38% | 37% | 37% | 42.0% | ||
| Labor | 38% | 37% | 36% | 36% | 34.7% | ||
| Greens | 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10.2% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | |||
| Other/Independent | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 13.1% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 46% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 50.4% | ||
| Labor | 54% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 49.6% |
Sample = 1,795. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.
Federal voting intention
Q: If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | Last week
17/5/16 |
2 weeks ago
10/5/16 |
4 weeks ago
26/4/16 |
Election 7 Sep 13 | |||
| Liberal | 38% | 39% | 38% | 36% | |||
| National | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 41% | 42% | 42% | 40% | 45.6% | ||
| Labor | 37% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 33.4% | ||
| Greens | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 8.6% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 3% | 3% | na | na | – | ||
| Palmer United Party | na | na | 1% | 1% | 5.5% | ||
| Other/Independent | 9% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 6.9% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 49% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 53.5% | ||
| Labor | 51% | 51% | 51% | 52% | 46.5% |
NB. Sample = 1,794. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal voting intention
If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Total |
|
Last week5/4/16 |
2 weeks ago29/3/16 |
4 weeks ago15/3/16 |
|
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
| Liberal | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% | |||
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 42% | 42% | 43% | 42% | 45.6% | ||
| Labor | 35% | 37% | 38% | 36% | 33.4% | ||
| Greens | 11% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 8.6% | ||
| Palmer United Party | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5.5% | ||
| Other/Independent | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 6.9% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 53.5% | ||
| Labor | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 46.5% |
NB. Sample = 1,792. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q: If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q: If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
(sample size = 1,774 respondents)
| First preference/leaning to | Election
7 Sep 13 |
4 weeks ago
8/09/15 |
2 weeks ago 22/09/15 | Last week
29/9/15 |
This week 6/10/15 | |
| Liberal | 36% | 37% | 40% | 41% | ||
| National | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | ||
| Total Liberal/National | 45.6% | 40% | 41% | 44% | 44% | |
| Labor | 33.4% | 38% | 37% | 35% | 35% | |
| Greens | 8.6% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | |
| Palmer United Party | 5.5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | |
| Other/Independent | 6.9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| 2 Party Preferred | Election
7 Sep 13 |
4 weeks ago
8/09/15 |
2 weeks ago 22/09/15 | Last week
29/9/15 |
This week 6/10/15 | |
| Liberal National | 53.5% | 48% | 49% | 52% | 52% | |
| Labor | 46.5% | 52% | 51% | 48% | 48% |
NB. Except The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,756 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 26/8/14 |
2 weeks ago 9/9/14 |
Last week 16/9/14 |
This week 23/9/14 |
| Liberal |
|
36% |
36% |
35% |
36% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Liberal/National |
45.6% |
39% |
39% |
39% |
39% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
37% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
10% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
6% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 26/8/14 |
2 weeks ago 9/9/14 |
Last week 16/9/14 |
This week 23/9/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
48% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
52% |
52% |
53% |
53% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.
Download this week's ReportEssential Report
Two Party Preferred:
In this week's report:
- Performance of Scott Morrison
- Performance of Anthony Albanese
- Preferred Prime Minister
- Federal government response to Covid-19
- State government response to Covid-19
- Better leadership during Covid-19 – PM vs state leader
- Attitudes towards Craig Kelly controversy and Scott Morrison’s leadership
- Views towards federal vs state government responsibility to manage Covid-19 hotel quarantine system
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