Essential Report

Federal Voting Intention

Feb 2, 2021

Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?

[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?

Q       This week

01/02

Two weeks ago

18/01

14/12 30/11 16/11 02/11 19/10
Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals 35% 37% 34% 37% 36% 36% 36%
Nationals 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Total: Coalition 37% 40% 37% 41% 38% 39% 39%
Labor 35% 33% 35% 33% 35% 35% 35%
Greens 10% 10% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3%
Other/Independent 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 7%
Undecided 8% 7% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8%
 
2 Party Preferred (2PP+)
TOTAL: Coalition 44% 48% 45% 49% 45% 44% 48%
Labor 47% 45% 46% 43% 47% 46% 45%
Undecided 8% 7% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8%

 

Performance of Scott Morrison

Jan 19, 2021

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister?

Jan’21 Dec’20 Nov’20 Oct’20 Sep’20 Aug’20 Jul’20 Jun’20 May’20 Apr’20 Mar’20 Feb’20
TOTAL: Approve 61% 62% 66% 63% 64% 66% 63% 65% 64% 59% 41% 39%
TOTAL: Disapprove 30% 28% 25% 27% 28% 23% 27% 26% 27% 31% 49% 52%
Don’t know 9% 11% 9% 10% 8% 11% 10% 8% 9% 10% 10% 9%
Base (n) 1,084 1,071 1,010 1,082 1,076 1,010 1,054 1,059 1,093 1,069 1,096 1,056

 

  Total Federal Voting Intention
Labor Coalition Greens TOTAL: Other
Strongly approve 20% 8% 42% 4% 9%
Approve 40% 39% 48% 31% 30%
Disapprove 18% 30% 6% 22% 22%
Strongly disapprove 13% 18% 2% 35% 20%
Don’t know 9% 5% 2% 8% 19%
TOTAL: Approve 61% 47% 90% 35% 39%
TOTAL: Disapprove 30% 48% 8% 57% 42%
Base (n) 1,084 334 431 118 106
  • The Prime Minister’s approval rating is at 61%, unchanged since last month.
  • Approval of the Prime Minister is at 90% among Coalition supporters and 47% among Labor voters, both also unchanged since last month (90% and 48%).

Performance of Anthony Albanese

Jan 19, 2021

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Anthony Albanese is doing as Opposition Leader?

Jan’21 Dec’20 Nov’20 Oct’20 Sep’20 Aug’20 Jul’20 Jun’20 May’20 Apr’20 Mar’20 Feb’20
TOTAL: Approve 42% 43% 40% 44% 44% 44% 44% 43% 42% 44% 41% 41%
TOTAL: Disapprove 33% 29% 33% 29% 29% 30% 28% 30% 27% 29% 33% 31%
Don’t know 25% 28% 27% 27% 27% 25% 28% 26% 31% 27% 26% 28%
Base (n) 1,084 1,071 1,010 1,082 1,076 1,010 1,054 1,059 1,093 1,069 1,096 1,056

 

  Total Federal Voting Intention
Labor Coalition Greens TOTAL: Other
Strongly approve 9% 16% 8% 8% 3%
Approve 32% 47% 26% 37% 20%
Disapprove 23% 14% 33% 22% 25%
Strongly disapprove 10% 3% 16% 7% 22%
Don’t know 25% 19% 16% 26% 30%
TOTAL: Approve 42% 63% 35% 45% 24%
TOTAL: Disapprove 33% 18% 49% 29% 47%
Base (n) 1,084 334 431 118 106
  • The Opposition Leader’s approval rating is now 42%, consistent with ratings seen throughout last year.

Preferred Prime Minister

Jan 19, 2021

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese?

  Jan’21 Dec’20 Nov’20 Oct’20 Sep’20 Aug’20 Jul’20 Jun’20 May’20 Apr’20 Mar’20 Feb’20
Scott Morrison 51% 50% 53% 50% 49% 52% 50% 53% 50% 46% 40% 36%
Anthony Albanese 25% 24% 24% 25% 26% 22% 27% 23% 25% 27% 35% 36%
Don’t know 25% 26% 24% 25% 25% 26% 23% 24% 25% 27% 25% 28%
Base (n) 1,084 1,071 1,010 1,082 1,076 1,010 1,054 1,059 1,093 1,069 1,096 1,056

 

    Federal Voting Intention
Total Labor Coalition Greens TOTAL: Other
Scott Morrison 51% 28% 83% 24% 45%
Anthony Albanese 25% 47% 8% 49% 16%
Don’t know 25% 26% 9% 27% 39%
Base (n) 1,084 334 431 118 106
  • Half of participants believe that Scott Morrison would make a better PM than Anthony Albanese (51%), while a quarter would prefer the Opposition Leader (25%). A further quarter (25%) of participants don’t know who would make the better PM.
  • Morrison is strongly favoured by Coalition voters, with 83% believing Morrison makes the better PM, compared to Albanese (8%).
  • Just under half of Labor voters believe Albanese would make the better PM (47%). 26% of Labor voters said they don’t know who would make the better leader.

Federal Voting Intention

Oct 20, 2020

Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?

[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?

Q       This week

19/10

Last week

12/10

Two weeks ago

05/10

21/09 07/09 24/08 10/08
Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals 36% 38% 37% 38% 35% 36% 36%
Nationals 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2%
Total: Coalition 39% 40% 39% 41% 38% 39% 38%
Labor 35% 33% 34% 31% 32% 35% 34%
Greens 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 9%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 3% 3% 5% 4% 3% 4% 4%
Other/Independent 7% 5% 6% 5% 9% 6% 5%
Undecided 8% 9% 7% 9% 8% 7% 10%
               
2 Party Preferred (2PP+)              
TOTAL: Coalition 48% 47% 47% 49% 45% 47% 46%
Labor 45% 44% 46% 42% 47% 45% 44%
Undecided 8% 9% 7% 9% 8% 7% 10%

 

Performance of Scott Morrison

Oct 20, 2020

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister?

Oct’20 Sep’20 Aug’20 Jul’20 Jun’20 May’20 Apr’20 Mar’20 Feb’20 Jan’20 Dec’19 Nov’19
TOTAL: Approve 63% 64% 66% 63% 65% 64% 59% 41% 39% 40% 45% 45%
TOTAL: Disapprove 27% 28% 23% 27% 26% 27% 31% 49% 52% 52% 43% 41%
Don’t know 10% 8% 11% 10% 8% 9% 10% 10% 9% 8% 13% 13%
Base (n) 1,082 1,076 1,010 1,054 1,059 1,093 1,069 1,096 1,056 1,081 1,035 1,075

 

  Total Federal Voting Intention
Labor Coalition Greens TOTAL: Other
Strongly approve 23% 10% 43% 13% 20%
Approve 40% 35% 46% 41% 39%
Disapprove 15% 24% 6% 13% 21%
Strongly disapprove 12% 24% 2% 21% 13%
Don’t know 10% 7% 3% 12% 7%
TOTAL: Approve 63% 45% 89% 54% 58%
TOTAL: Disapprove 27% 48% 8% 34% 35%
Base (n) 1,082 352 421 84 123
  • The Prime Minister’s approval rating is consistent with last month, now at 63% compared to 64% in September.
  • Approval of the Prime Minister among is at 89% among Coalition supporters and just under half among Labor voters (45%). More Greens and independent/other party voters approve of the Prime Minister, than disapprove.

Performance of Anthony Albanese

Oct 20, 2020

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Anthony Albanese is doing as Opposition Leader?

Oct’20 Sep’20 Aug’20 Jul’20 Jun’20 May’20 Apr’20 Mar’20 Feb’20 Jan’20 Dec’19 Nov’19
TOTAL: Approve 44% 44% 44% 44% 43% 42% 44% 41% 41% 43% 39% 37%
TOTAL: Disapprove 29% 29% 30% 28% 30% 27% 29% 33% 31% 30% 28% 34%
Don’t know 27% 27% 25% 28% 26% 31% 27% 26% 28% 27% 33% 29%
Base (n) 1,082 1,076 1,010 1,054 1,059 1,093 1,069 1,096 1,056 1,081 1,035 1,075

 

  Total Federal Voting Intention
Labor Coalition Greens TOTAL: Other
Strongly approve 10% 15% 7% 16% 11%
Approve 33% 50% 27% 27% 30%
Disapprove 20% 12% 30% 16% 19%
Strongly disapprove 10% 1% 18% 4% 19%
Don’t know 27% 21% 18% 36% 20%
TOTAL: Approve 44% 65% 34% 43% 41%
TOTAL: Disapprove 29% 13% 47% 21% 38%
Base (n) 1,082 352 421 84 123
  • The Opposition Leader’s approval rating remains consistent for the fourth consecutive month at 44%.
  • Albanese’s approval among Labor voters is steady at 65% following the decline from 70% to 62% between July and August. The proportion of Labor voters who strongly approve of his performance remains at 15%.

Preferred Prime Minister

Oct 20, 2020

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese?

  Oct’20 Sep’20 Aug’20 Jul’20 Jun’20 May’20 Apr’20 Mar’20 Feb’20 Jan’20 Nov’19 Oct’19
Scott Morrison 50% 49% 52% 50% 53% 50% 46% 40% 36% 36% 44% 43%
Anthony Albanese 25% 26% 22% 27% 23% 25% 27% 35% 36% 39% 28% 28%
Don’t know 25% 25% 26% 23% 24% 25% 27% 25% 28% 25% 29% 29%
Base (n) 1,082 1,076 1,010 1,054 1,059 1,093 1,069 1,096 1,056 1,081 1,075 1,088

 

    Federal Voting Intention
Total Labor Coalition Greens TOTAL: Other
Scott Morrison 50% 25% 82% 32% 48%
Anthony Albanese 25% 50% 8% 38% 20%
Don’t know 25% 24% 10% 29% 32%
Base (n) 1,082 352 421 84 123
  • Half of participants believe that Scott Morrison would make a better PM than Anthony Albanese (50%), while a quarter would prefer the opposition leader. A further quarter (25%) of participants don’t know who would make the better PM.
  • Morrison is strongly favoured by Coalition voters, with 82% believing Morrison makes the better PM, compared to Albanese (8%).
  • Half of Labor voters believe Albanese would make the better PM (50%, up from 46% in September). 24% of Labor voters said they didn’t know who would make the better leader.
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