Essential Report
Federal Voting Intention
Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?
[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?
| Q | This week
01/02 |
Two weeks ago
18/01 |
14/12 | 30/11 | 16/11 | 02/11 | 19/10 |
| Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals | 35% | 37% | 34% | 37% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| Nationals | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total: Coalition | 37% | 40% | 37% | 41% | 38% | 39% | 39% |
| Labor | 35% | 33% | 35% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Greens | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 7% |
| Undecided | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% |
| 2 Party Preferred (2PP+) | |||||||
| TOTAL: Coalition | 44% | 48% | 45% | 49% | 45% | 44% | 48% |
| Labor | 47% | 45% | 46% | 43% | 47% | 46% | 45% |
| Undecided | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% |
Performance of Scott Morrison
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister?
| Jan’21 | Dec’20 | Nov’20 | Oct’20 | Sep’20 | Aug’20 | Jul’20 | Jun’20 | May’20 | Apr’20 | Mar’20 | Feb’20 | |
| TOTAL: Approve | 61% | 62% | 66% | 63% | 64% | 66% | 63% | 65% | 64% | 59% | 41% | 39% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 30% | 28% | 25% | 27% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 26% | 27% | 31% | 49% | 52% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% |
| Base (n) | 1,084 | 1,071 | 1,010 | 1,082 | 1,076 | 1,010 | 1,054 | 1,059 | 1,093 | 1,069 | 1,096 | 1,056 |
| Total | Federal Voting Intention | ||||
| Labor | Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | ||
| Strongly approve | 20% | 8% | 42% | 4% | 9% |
| Approve | 40% | 39% | 48% | 31% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 18% | 30% | 6% | 22% | 22% |
| Strongly disapprove | 13% | 18% | 2% | 35% | 20% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 5% | 2% | 8% | 19% |
| TOTAL: Approve | 61% | 47% | 90% | 35% | 39% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 30% | 48% | 8% | 57% | 42% |
| Base (n) | 1,084 | 334 | 431 | 118 | 106 |
- The Prime Minister’s approval rating is at 61%, unchanged since last month.
- Approval of the Prime Minister is at 90% among Coalition supporters and 47% among Labor voters, both also unchanged since last month (90% and 48%).
Performance of Anthony Albanese
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Anthony Albanese is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Jan’21 | Dec’20 | Nov’20 | Oct’20 | Sep’20 | Aug’20 | Jul’20 | Jun’20 | May’20 | Apr’20 | Mar’20 | Feb’20 | |
| TOTAL: Approve | 42% | 43% | 40% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 43% | 42% | 44% | 41% | 41% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 33% | 29% | 33% | 29% | 29% | 30% | 28% | 30% | 27% | 29% | 33% | 31% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 28% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 26% | 31% | 27% | 26% | 28% |
| Base (n) | 1,084 | 1,071 | 1,010 | 1,082 | 1,076 | 1,010 | 1,054 | 1,059 | 1,093 | 1,069 | 1,096 | 1,056 |
| Total | Federal Voting Intention | ||||
| Labor | Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | ||
| Strongly approve | 9% | 16% | 8% | 8% | 3% |
| Approve | 32% | 47% | 26% | 37% | 20% |
| Disapprove | 23% | 14% | 33% | 22% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 10% | 3% | 16% | 7% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 19% | 16% | 26% | 30% |
| TOTAL: Approve | 42% | 63% | 35% | 45% | 24% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 33% | 18% | 49% | 29% | 47% |
| Base (n) | 1,084 | 334 | 431 | 118 | 106 |
- The Opposition Leader’s approval rating is now 42%, consistent with ratings seen throughout last year.
Preferred Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese?
| Jan’21 | Dec’20 | Nov’20 | Oct’20 | Sep’20 | Aug’20 | Jul’20 | Jun’20 | May’20 | Apr’20 | Mar’20 | Feb’20 | |
| Scott Morrison | 51% | 50% | 53% | 50% | 49% | 52% | 50% | 53% | 50% | 46% | 40% | 36% |
| Anthony Albanese | 25% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 22% | 27% | 23% | 25% | 27% | 35% | 36% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 24% | 25% | 27% | 25% | 28% |
| Base (n) | 1,084 | 1,071 | 1,010 | 1,082 | 1,076 | 1,010 | 1,054 | 1,059 | 1,093 | 1,069 | 1,096 | 1,056 |
| Federal Voting Intention | |||||
| Total | Labor | Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | |
| Scott Morrison | 51% | 28% | 83% | 24% | 45% |
| Anthony Albanese | 25% | 47% | 8% | 49% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 26% | 9% | 27% | 39% |
| Base (n) | 1,084 | 334 | 431 | 118 | 106 |
- Half of participants believe that Scott Morrison would make a better PM than Anthony Albanese (51%), while a quarter would prefer the Opposition Leader (25%). A further quarter (25%) of participants don’t know who would make the better PM.
- Morrison is strongly favoured by Coalition voters, with 83% believing Morrison makes the better PM, compared to Albanese (8%).
- Just under half of Labor voters believe Albanese would make the better PM (47%). 26% of Labor voters said they don’t know who would make the better leader.
Federal Voting Intention
Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?
[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?
| Q | This week
19/10 |
Last week
12/10 |
Two weeks ago
05/10 |
21/09 | 07/09 | 24/08 | 10/08 |
| Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals | 36% | 38% | 37% | 38% | 35% | 36% | 36% |
| Nationals | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Total: Coalition | 39% | 40% | 39% | 41% | 38% | 39% | 38% |
| Labor | 35% | 33% | 34% | 31% | 32% | 35% | 34% |
| Greens | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% |
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 5% |
| Undecided | 8% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 10% |
| 2 Party Preferred (2PP+) | |||||||
| TOTAL: Coalition | 48% | 47% | 47% | 49% | 45% | 47% | 46% |
| Labor | 45% | 44% | 46% | 42% | 47% | 45% | 44% |
| Undecided | 8% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 10% |
Performance of Scott Morrison
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister?
| Oct’20 | Sep’20 | Aug’20 | Jul’20 | Jun’20 | May’20 | Apr’20 | Mar’20 | Feb’20 | Jan’20 | Dec’19 | Nov’19 | |
| TOTAL: Approve | 63% | 64% | 66% | 63% | 65% | 64% | 59% | 41% | 39% | 40% | 45% | 45% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 27% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 26% | 27% | 31% | 49% | 52% | 52% | 43% | 41% |
| Don’t know | 10% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 13% | 13% |
| Base (n) | 1,082 | 1,076 | 1,010 | 1,054 | 1,059 | 1,093 | 1,069 | 1,096 | 1,056 | 1,081 | 1,035 | 1,075 |
| Total | Federal Voting Intention | ||||
| Labor | Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | ||
| Strongly approve | 23% | 10% | 43% | 13% | 20% |
| Approve | 40% | 35% | 46% | 41% | 39% |
| Disapprove | 15% | 24% | 6% | 13% | 21% |
| Strongly disapprove | 12% | 24% | 2% | 21% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 10% | 7% | 3% | 12% | 7% |
| TOTAL: Approve | 63% | 45% | 89% | 54% | 58% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 27% | 48% | 8% | 34% | 35% |
| Base (n) | 1,082 | 352 | 421 | 84 | 123 |
- The Prime Minister’s approval rating is consistent with last month, now at 63% compared to 64% in September.
- Approval of the Prime Minister among is at 89% among Coalition supporters and just under half among Labor voters (45%). More Greens and independent/other party voters approve of the Prime Minister, than disapprove.
Performance of Anthony Albanese
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Anthony Albanese is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Oct’20 | Sep’20 | Aug’20 | Jul’20 | Jun’20 | May’20 | Apr’20 | Mar’20 | Feb’20 | Jan’20 | Dec’19 | Nov’19 | |
| TOTAL: Approve | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 43% | 42% | 44% | 41% | 41% | 43% | 39% | 37% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 29% | 29% | 30% | 28% | 30% | 27% | 29% | 33% | 31% | 30% | 28% | 34% |
| Don’t know | 27% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 26% | 31% | 27% | 26% | 28% | 27% | 33% | 29% |
| Base (n) | 1,082 | 1,076 | 1,010 | 1,054 | 1,059 | 1,093 | 1,069 | 1,096 | 1,056 | 1,081 | 1,035 | 1,075 |
| Total | Federal Voting Intention | ||||
| Labor | Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | ||
| Strongly approve | 10% | 15% | 7% | 16% | 11% |
| Approve | 33% | 50% | 27% | 27% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 12% | 30% | 16% | 19% |
| Strongly disapprove | 10% | 1% | 18% | 4% | 19% |
| Don’t know | 27% | 21% | 18% | 36% | 20% |
| TOTAL: Approve | 44% | 65% | 34% | 43% | 41% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 29% | 13% | 47% | 21% | 38% |
| Base (n) | 1,082 | 352 | 421 | 84 | 123 |
- The Opposition Leader’s approval rating remains consistent for the fourth consecutive month at 44%.
- Albanese’s approval among Labor voters is steady at 65% following the decline from 70% to 62% between July and August. The proportion of Labor voters who strongly approve of his performance remains at 15%.
Preferred Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese?
| Oct’20 | Sep’20 | Aug’20 | Jul’20 | Jun’20 | May’20 | Apr’20 | Mar’20 | Feb’20 | Jan’20 | Nov’19 | Oct’19 | |
| Scott Morrison | 50% | 49% | 52% | 50% | 53% | 50% | 46% | 40% | 36% | 36% | 44% | 43% |
| Anthony Albanese | 25% | 26% | 22% | 27% | 23% | 25% | 27% | 35% | 36% | 39% | 28% | 28% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 24% | 25% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 25% | 29% | 29% |
| Base (n) | 1,082 | 1,076 | 1,010 | 1,054 | 1,059 | 1,093 | 1,069 | 1,096 | 1,056 | 1,081 | 1,075 | 1,088 |
| Federal Voting Intention | |||||
| Total | Labor | Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | |
| Scott Morrison | 50% | 25% | 82% | 32% | 48% |
| Anthony Albanese | 25% | 50% | 8% | 38% | 20% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 24% | 10% | 29% | 32% |
| Base (n) | 1,082 | 352 | 421 | 84 | 123 |
- Half of participants believe that Scott Morrison would make a better PM than Anthony Albanese (50%), while a quarter would prefer the opposition leader. A further quarter (25%) of participants don’t know who would make the better PM.
- Morrison is strongly favoured by Coalition voters, with 82% believing Morrison makes the better PM, compared to Albanese (8%).
- Half of Labor voters believe Albanese would make the better PM (50%, up from 46% in September). 24% of Labor voters said they didn’t know who would make the better leader.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.
Essential Report
In this week's report:
- Federal government response to Covid-19
- State government response to Covid-19
- Views towards reopening international borders
- Views towards state border closures
- Comprehension and confidence in PM’s plan to ‘safely reopen’ Australia
- Uptake of a Covid-19 vaccine
- Necessity of mandatory vaccinations in specific situations
- Views towards easing restrictions for fully vaccinated people
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