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Federal Voting Intention
Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?
[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?
| Q | This week
19/10 |
Last week
12/10 |
Two weeks ago
05/10 |
21/09 | 07/09 | 24/08 | 10/08 |
| Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals | 36% | 38% | 37% | 38% | 35% | 36% | 36% |
| Nationals | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Total: Coalition | 39% | 40% | 39% | 41% | 38% | 39% | 38% |
| Labor | 35% | 33% | 34% | 31% | 32% | 35% | 34% |
| Greens | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% |
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 5% |
| Undecided | 8% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 10% |
| 2 Party Preferred (2PP+) | |||||||
| TOTAL: Coalition | 48% | 47% | 47% | 49% | 45% | 47% | 46% |
| Labor | 45% | 44% | 46% | 42% | 47% | 45% | 44% |
| Undecided | 8% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 10% |
Performance of Scott Morrison
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister?
| Oct’20 | Sep’20 | Aug’20 | Jul’20 | Jun’20 | May’20 | Apr’20 | Mar’20 | Feb’20 | Jan’20 | Dec’19 | Nov’19 | |
| TOTAL: Approve | 63% | 64% | 66% | 63% | 65% | 64% | 59% | 41% | 39% | 40% | 45% | 45% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 27% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 26% | 27% | 31% | 49% | 52% | 52% | 43% | 41% |
| Don’t know | 10% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 13% | 13% |
| Base (n) | 1,082 | 1,076 | 1,010 | 1,054 | 1,059 | 1,093 | 1,069 | 1,096 | 1,056 | 1,081 | 1,035 | 1,075 |
| Total | Federal Voting Intention | ||||
| Labor | Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | ||
| Strongly approve | 23% | 10% | 43% | 13% | 20% |
| Approve | 40% | 35% | 46% | 41% | 39% |
| Disapprove | 15% | 24% | 6% | 13% | 21% |
| Strongly disapprove | 12% | 24% | 2% | 21% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 10% | 7% | 3% | 12% | 7% |
| TOTAL: Approve | 63% | 45% | 89% | 54% | 58% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 27% | 48% | 8% | 34% | 35% |
| Base (n) | 1,082 | 352 | 421 | 84 | 123 |
- The Prime Minister’s approval rating is consistent with last month, now at 63% compared to 64% in September.
- Approval of the Prime Minister among is at 89% among Coalition supporters and just under half among Labor voters (45%). More Greens and independent/other party voters approve of the Prime Minister, than disapprove.
Performance of Anthony Albanese
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Anthony Albanese is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Oct’20 | Sep’20 | Aug’20 | Jul’20 | Jun’20 | May’20 | Apr’20 | Mar’20 | Feb’20 | Jan’20 | Dec’19 | Nov’19 | |
| TOTAL: Approve | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 43% | 42% | 44% | 41% | 41% | 43% | 39% | 37% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 29% | 29% | 30% | 28% | 30% | 27% | 29% | 33% | 31% | 30% | 28% | 34% |
| Don’t know | 27% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 26% | 31% | 27% | 26% | 28% | 27% | 33% | 29% |
| Base (n) | 1,082 | 1,076 | 1,010 | 1,054 | 1,059 | 1,093 | 1,069 | 1,096 | 1,056 | 1,081 | 1,035 | 1,075 |
| Total | Federal Voting Intention | ||||
| Labor | Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | ||
| Strongly approve | 10% | 15% | 7% | 16% | 11% |
| Approve | 33% | 50% | 27% | 27% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 12% | 30% | 16% | 19% |
| Strongly disapprove | 10% | 1% | 18% | 4% | 19% |
| Don’t know | 27% | 21% | 18% | 36% | 20% |
| TOTAL: Approve | 44% | 65% | 34% | 43% | 41% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 29% | 13% | 47% | 21% | 38% |
| Base (n) | 1,082 | 352 | 421 | 84 | 123 |
- The Opposition Leader’s approval rating remains consistent for the fourth consecutive month at 44%.
- Albanese’s approval among Labor voters is steady at 65% following the decline from 70% to 62% between July and August. The proportion of Labor voters who strongly approve of his performance remains at 15%.
Preferred Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese?
| Oct’20 | Sep’20 | Aug’20 | Jul’20 | Jun’20 | May’20 | Apr’20 | Mar’20 | Feb’20 | Jan’20 | Nov’19 | Oct’19 | |
| Scott Morrison | 50% | 49% | 52% | 50% | 53% | 50% | 46% | 40% | 36% | 36% | 44% | 43% |
| Anthony Albanese | 25% | 26% | 22% | 27% | 23% | 25% | 27% | 35% | 36% | 39% | 28% | 28% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 24% | 25% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 25% | 29% | 29% |
| Base (n) | 1,082 | 1,076 | 1,010 | 1,054 | 1,059 | 1,093 | 1,069 | 1,096 | 1,056 | 1,081 | 1,075 | 1,088 |
| Federal Voting Intention | |||||
| Total | Labor | Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | |
| Scott Morrison | 50% | 25% | 82% | 32% | 48% |
| Anthony Albanese | 25% | 50% | 8% | 38% | 20% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 24% | 10% | 29% | 32% |
| Base (n) | 1,082 | 352 | 421 | 84 | 123 |
- Half of participants believe that Scott Morrison would make a better PM than Anthony Albanese (50%), while a quarter would prefer the opposition leader. A further quarter (25%) of participants don’t know who would make the better PM.
- Morrison is strongly favoured by Coalition voters, with 82% believing Morrison makes the better PM, compared to Albanese (8%).
- Half of Labor voters believe Albanese would make the better PM (50%, up from 46% in September). 24% of Labor voters said they didn’t know who would make the better leader.
Most important issues when voting
Q. If a federal election were held today, how important would the following issues be in deciding which party you vote for?
| Very important | Quite important | A little important | Neither important nor unimportant | A little unimportant | Quite unimportant | Very unimportant | |
| Stop community transmission of Covid-19 as soon as possible | 62% | 18% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| Manage the economy | 54% | 25% | 10% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Create jobs | 51% | 27% | 10% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Provide support for those in financial need | 42% | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Reduce national debt | 34% | 28% | 17% | 12% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Work with other countries’ leaders appropriately | 34% | 32% | 16% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Improve the education system | 33% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| VERY IMPORTANT | Federal Voting Intention | ||||
| Total | Labor | Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | |
| Stop community transmission of Covid-19 as soon as possible | 62% | 64% | 64% | 49% | 64% |
| Manage the economy | 54% | 54% | 66% | 29% | 63% |
| Create jobs | 51% | 53% | 54% | 33% | 57% |
| Provide support for those in financial need | 42% | 49% | 39% | 38% | 45% |
| Reduce national debt | 34% | 31% | 41% | 19% | 45% |
| Work with other countries’ leaders appropriately | 34% | 39% | 35% | 23% | 31% |
| Improve the education system | 33% | 39% | 28% | 28% | 27% |
| Base (n) | 1,010 | 311 | 413 | 78 | 94 |
- Stopping community transmission of Covid-19 as soon as possible is the most important issue at present with 62% of participants saying it’s ‘very important’ compared to more than half who said ‘manage the economy’ (54%).
- At this time, reducing the national debt (34%), working with international leaders (34%) and improving the education system (33%) were seen of lesser importance.
Federal Voting Intention
Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?
[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?
| This week
27/07 |
Two weeks ago
13/07 |
29/06 | 22/06 | 15/06 | 08/06 | |
| Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals | 36% | 35% | 36% | 37% | 36% | 37% |
| Nationals | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Total: Coalition | 38% | 37% | 39% | 39% | 38% | 40% |
| Labor | 35% | 34% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 33% |
| Greens | 9% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% |
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 4% |
| Other/Independent | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
| Undecided | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
| 2 Party Preferred (2PP+) | ||||||
| TOTAL: Coalition | 45% | 45% | 47% | 48% | 47% | 47% |
| Labor | 47% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 45% |
| Undecided | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
Federal voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | 2 weeks ago 22/5/18 | 4 weeks ago 8/5/18 | Election 2 Jul 16 | |
| Liberal | 34% | 38% | 35% | |
| National | 3% | 2% | 3% | |
| Total Liberal/National | 36% | 40% | 38% | 42.0% |
| Labor | 37% | 36% | 37% | 34.7% |
| Greens | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10.2% |
| Nick Xenophon Team | 2% | 1% | 2% | |
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 8% | 8% | 6% | |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 6% | 6% | 13.1% |
| 2 party preferred | ||||
| Liberal National | 46% | 49% | 47% | 50.4% |
| Labor | 54% | 51% | 53% | 49.6% |
Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.
Federal Voting Intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | 2 weeks ago 24/4/18 | 4 weeks ago 10/4/18 | Election 2 Jul 16 | |||
| Liberal | 35% | 35% | 35% | |||
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 38% | 37% | 38% | 42.0% | ||
| Labor | 37% | 36% | 37% | 34.7% | ||
| Greens | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10.2% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 2% | 2% | 2% | |||
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 6% | 8% | 7% | |||
| Other/Independent | 6% | 6% | 7% | 13.1% | ||
| 2 party preferred | ||||||
| Liberal National | 47% | 47% | 47% | 50.4% | ||
| Labor | 53% | 53% | 53% | 49.6% |
- Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.
Download this week's ReportEssential Report
Two Party Preferred:
Labor
45%
Coalition
48%
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