Federal Voting Intention
Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?
[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?
| Q | This week
01/02 |
Two weeks ago
18/01 |
14/12 | 30/11 | 16/11 | 02/11 | 19/10 |
| Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals | 35% | 37% | 34% | 37% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| Nationals | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total: Coalition | 37% | 40% | 37% | 41% | 38% | 39% | 39% |
| Labor | 35% | 33% | 35% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Greens | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 7% |
| Undecided | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% |
| 2 Party Preferred (2PP+) | |||||||
| TOTAL: Coalition | 44% | 48% | 45% | 49% | 45% | 44% | 48% |
| Labor | 47% | 45% | 46% | 43% | 47% | 46% | 45% |
| Undecided | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% |
Views towards early federal election
Q. Some have suggested that the Prime Minister might call an early election later in 2021. It is not due until 2022.
Which of the following is closer to your view?
| Total | Gender | Age Group | Federal Voting Intention | |||||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Labor | TOTAL: Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | ||||
| An early federal election in 2021 will be good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election | 42% | 42% | 43% | 50% | 46% | 31% | 47% | 39% | 50% | 41% | ||
| It would just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election, and the federal election should stay in 2022 | 58% | 58% | 57% | 50% | 54% | 69% | 53% | 61% | 50% | 59% | ||
| Base (n) | 1,092 | 532 | 560 | 318 | 391 | 383 | 361 | 400 | 97 | 126 | ||
- More Australians think it would just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election, and the federal election should stay in 2022 (58%), than those who think an early federal election in 2021 will be good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election (42%).
- Most of those over 55 think the federal election should stay in 2022 (69%), compared to just over half of those 35-54 (54%) and half (50%) of those 18-34.
- The majority of Coalition voters (61%) and Labor voters (53%) would prefer to keep the election for the next scheduled date in 2022.
Federal voting intention
If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Total |
|
Last week5/4/16 |
2 weeks ago29/3/16 |
4 weeks ago15/3/16 |
|
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
| Liberal | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% | |||
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 42% | 42% | 43% | 42% | 45.6% | ||
| Labor | 35% | 37% | 38% | 36% | 33.4% | ||
| Greens | 11% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 8.6% | ||
| Palmer United Party | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5.5% | ||
| Other/Independent | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 6.9% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 53.5% | ||
| Labor | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 46.5% |
NB. Sample = 1,792. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Next election
Q. Which party do you think is most likely to win the next Federal election due in 2016?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
| Labor Party |
46% |
84% |
16% |
66% |
40% |
|
| Liberal/National Party |
27% |
2% |
64% |
7% |
16% |
|
| Can’t say |
27% |
14% |
20% |
27% |
44% |
46% think the Labor Party is most likely to win the next election and 27% think the Liberal/National Party is most likely to win. 27% could not give an opinion.
84% of Labor voters think the Labor Party is most likely to win and 64% of Liberal/National voters think the Liberal/National Party will win.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,796 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 9/9/14 |
2 weeks ago 23/9/14 |
Last week 30/9/14 |
This week 7/10/14 |
| Liberal |
|
36% |
36% |
37% |
38% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
|
| Total Liberal/National |
45.6% |
39% |
39% |
40% |
40% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
38% |
39% |
39% |
39% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 9/9/14 |
2 weeks ago 23/9/14 |
Last week 30/9/14 |
This week 7/10/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
48% |
47% |
48% |
48% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
52% |
53% |
52% |
52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,775 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 12/8/14 |
2 weeks ago 26/8/14 |
Last week 2/9/14 |
This week 9/9/14 |
| Liberal |
|
38% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
|
| Total Liberal/National |
45.6% |
41% |
39% |
40% |
39% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
39% |
37% |
38% |
38% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
8% |
10% |
9% |
10% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
5% |
6% |
5% |
4% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 12/8/14 |
2 weeks ago 26/8/14 |
Last week 2/9/14 |
This week 9/9/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
49% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
51% |
52% |
52% |
52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Most important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
|
Total 22 Apr 14 |
|
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Grn |
Vote other |
|
23 Jul 13 |
30 Jul 12 |
6 June 11 |
25 Jan 10 |
|
| Management of the economy |
54% |
43% |
75% |
22% |
44% |
45% |
64% |
61% |
63% |
||
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
27% |
35% |
18% |
38% |
20% |
25% |
26% |
26% |
23% |
||
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
50% |
54% |
43% |
62% |
52% |
42% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
||
| Protecting the environment |
13% |
12% |
7% |
42% |
14% |
12% |
11% |
15% |
16% |
||
| A fair industrial relations system |
12% |
17% |
11% |
8% |
12% |
10% |
12% |
8% |
na |
||
| Political leadership |
15% |
11% |
24% |
6% |
13% |
21% |
25% |
17% |
23% |
||
| Addressing climate change |
10% |
13% |
4% |
28% |
9% |
11% |
9% |
15% |
16% |
||
| Controlling interest rates |
9% |
9% |
11% |
2% |
7% |
13% |
9% |
13% |
15% |
||
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
37% |
39% |
37% |
18% |
37% |
39% |
41% |
32% |
33% |
||
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
4% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
12% |
||
| Housing affordability |
17% |
18% |
16% |
13% |
19% |
17% |
13% |
16% |
14% |
||
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
20% |
19% |
20% |
9% |
23% |
20% |
18% |
17% |
14% |
||
| Security and the war on terrorism |
5% |
3% |
8% |
3% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
8% |
9% |
||
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
8% |
5% |
5% |
32% |
9% |
14% |
10% |
5% |
na |
||
| Managing population growth |
9% |
6% |
10% |
8% |
16% |
9% |
8% |
12% |
na |
54% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 50% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 37% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 27% ensuring a quality education for all children.
Main changes since this question was asked last July – management of the economy up 9%, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system up 8%, political leadership down 6% and treatment of asylum seekers down 6%.
Voting decision
Q. Thinking about the Federal election to be held this year, when do you expect you will make your final decision about who you will vote for?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party |
Don’t know |
|
| I have already decided |
53% |
55% |
69% |
36% |
29% |
8% |
|
| During the election campaign |
15% |
19% |
12% |
24% |
18% |
6% |
|
| In the last week before the election |
12% |
11% |
9% |
15% |
25% |
7% |
|
| The day before the election |
3% |
4% |
2% |
9% |
1% |
2% |
|
| On the day of the election |
8% |
7% |
4% |
9% |
20% |
18% |
|
| Don’t know |
9% |
5% |
4% |
8% |
7% |
60% |
53% say they have already decided who they will be voting for in the Federal election, 30% will finally make up their mind at some stage before election day and 8% will decide on election day.
Those least likely to have made up their mind were aged 18-24 (33%), Greens voters (36%), other party/independent voters (29%) and respondents with university education (48%).
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.
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Two Party Preferred:
In this week's report:
- Performance of Scott Morrison
- Performance of Anthony Albanese
- Preferred Prime Minister
- Federal government response to Covid-19
- State government response to Covid-19
- Confidence in Labor government handling of Covid-19 pandemic
- Satisfaction with speed of Covid-19 vaccine rollout
- Party most responsible for slow vaccine rollout
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