Federal Voting Intention

Feb 2, 2021

Q. If a Federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?

[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?

Q       This week

01/02

Two weeks ago

18/01

14/12 30/11 16/11 02/11 19/10
Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals 35% 37% 34% 37% 36% 36% 36%
Nationals 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Total: Coalition 37% 40% 37% 41% 38% 39% 39%
Labor 35% 33% 35% 33% 35% 35% 35%
Greens 10% 10% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3%
Other/Independent 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 7%
Undecided 8% 7% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8%
 
2 Party Preferred (2PP+)
TOTAL: Coalition 44% 48% 45% 49% 45% 44% 48%
Labor 47% 45% 46% 43% 47% 46% 45%
Undecided 8% 7% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8%

 

Views towards early federal election

Feb 2, 2021

Q. Some have suggested that the Prime Minister might call an early election later in 2021. It is not due until 2022.

Which of the following is closer to your view?

  Total Gender Age Group Federal Voting Intention
  Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Labor TOTAL: Coalition Greens TOTAL: Other
An early federal election in 2021 will be good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election 42% 42% 43% 50% 46% 31% 47% 39% 50% 41%
It would just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election, and the federal election should stay in 2022 58% 58% 57% 50% 54% 69% 53% 61% 50% 59%
Base (n) 1,092 532 560 318 391 383 361 400 97 126
  • More Australians think it would just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election, and the federal election should stay in 2022 (58%), than those who think an early federal election in 2021 will be good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election (42%).
  • Most of those over 55 think the federal election should stay in 2022 (69%), compared to just over half of those 35-54 (54%) and half (50%) of those 18-34.
  • The majority of Coalition voters (61%) and Labor voters (53%) would prefer to keep the election for the next scheduled date in 2022.

Federal voting intention

Apr 12, 2016

If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

 
Total
 
Last week
5/4/16
2 weeks ago
29/3/16
4 weeks ago
15/3/16
 
Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 39% 39% 39% 39%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Liberal/National 42%   42% 43% 42%   45.6%
Labor 35%   37% 38% 36%   33.4%
Greens 11% 10% 9% 11% 8.6%
Palmer United Party 1% 1% 1% 1% 5.5%
Other/Independent 10% 10% 10% 9% 6.9%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 50% 50% 50% 50% 53.5%
Labor 50% 50% 50% 50% 46.5%

NB.  Sample = 1,792. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Next election

Dec 16, 2014

Q. Which party do you think is most likely to win the next Federal election due in 2016? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Labor Party

46%

84%

16%

66%

40%

Liberal/National Party

27%

2%

64%

7%

16%

Can’t say

27%

14%

20%

27%

44%

46% think the Labor Party is most likely to win the next election and 27% think the Liberal/National Party is most likely to win. 27% could not give an opinion.

84% of Labor voters think the Labor Party is most likely to win and 64% of Liberal/National voters think the Liberal/National Party will win.

Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 7, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to? 

Sample size = 1,796 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 9/9/14

2 weeks ago

23/9/14

Last week

30/9/14

This week

7/10/14

Liberal

 

36%

36%

37%

38%

National

3%

3%

2%

2%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

39%

39%

40%

40%

Labor

33.4%

38%

39%

39%

39%

Greens

8.6%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

4%

4%

4%

4%

Other/Independent

6.9%

9%

8%

8%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 9/9/14

2 weeks ago

23/9/14

Last week

30/9/14

This week

7/10/14

Liberal National

53.5%

48%

47%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

52%

53%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 9, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

 Sample size = 1,775 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 12/8/14

2 weeks ago

26/8/14

Last week

2/9/14

This week

9/9/14

Liberal

 

38%

36%

36%

36%

National

3%

3%

4%

3%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

41%

39%

40%

39%

Labor

33.4%

39%

37%

38%

38%

Greens

8.6%

8%

10%

9%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

5%

6%

5%

4%

Other/Independent

6.9%

7%

8%

8%

9%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 12/8/14

2 weeks ago

26/8/14

Last week

2/9/14

This week

9/9/14

Liberal National

53.5%

49%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

46.5%

51%

52%

52%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Most important election issues

Apr 22, 2014

Q.  Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?

 

Total

22 Apr 14

 

Vote ALP

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Grn

Vote other

 

23 Jul 13

30 Jul 12

6 June 11

25 Jan 10

Management of the economy

54%

43%

75%

22%

44%

45%

64%

61%

63%

Ensuring a quality education for all children

27%

35%

18%

38%

20%

25%

26%

26%

23%

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

50%

54%

43%

62%

52%

42%

47%

49%

48%

Protecting the environment

13%

12%

7%

42%

14%

12%

11%

15%

16%

A fair industrial relations system

12%

17%

11%

8%

12%

10%

12%

8%

na

Political leadership

15%

11%

24%

6%

13%

21%

25%

17%

23%

Addressing climate change

10%

13%

4%

28%

9%

11%

9%

15%

16%

Controlling interest rates

9%

9%

11%

2%

7%

13%

9%

13%

15%

Australian jobs and protection of local industries

37%

39%

37%

18%

37%

39%

41%

32%

33%

Ensuring a quality water supply

4%

5%

3%

3%

5%

3%

3%

5%

12%

Housing affordability

17%

18%

16%

13%

19%

17%

13%

16%

14%

Ensuring a fair taxation system

20%

19%

20%

9%

23%

20%

18%

17%

14%

Security and the war on terrorism

5%

3%

8%

3%

5%

8%

5%

8%

9%

Treatment of asylum seekers

8%

5%

5%

32%

9%

14%

10%

5%

na

Managing population growth

9%

6%

10%

8%

16%

9%

8%

12%

na

54% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 50% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 37% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 27% ensuring a quality education for all children.

Main changes since this question was asked last July – management of the economy up 9%, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system up 8%, political leadership down 6% and treatment of asylum seekers down 6%.

Voting decision

Aug 5, 2013

Q. Thinking about the Federal election to be held this year, when do you expect you will make your final decision about who you will vote for?

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party

Don’t know

I have already decided

53%

55%

69%

36%

29%

8%

During the election campaign

15%

19%

12%

24%

18%

6%

In the last week before the election

12%

11%

9%

15%

25%

7%

The day before the election

3%

4%

2%

9%

1%

2%

On the day of the election

8%

7%

4%

9%

20%

18%

Don’t know

9%

5%

4%

8%

7%

60%

53% say they have already decided who they will be voting for in the Federal election, 30% will finally make up their mind at some stage before election day and 8% will decide on election day.

Those least likely to have made up their mind were aged 18-24 (33%), Greens voters (36%), other party/independent voters (29%) and respondents with university education (48%).

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