Federal voting intention
If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Total |
|
Last week5/4/16 |
2 weeks ago29/3/16 |
4 weeks ago15/3/16 |
|
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
| Liberal | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% | |||
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 42% | 42% | 43% | 42% | 45.6% | ||
| Labor | 35% | 37% | 38% | 36% | 33.4% | ||
| Greens | 11% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 8.6% | ||
| Palmer United Party | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5.5% | ||
| Other/Independent | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 6.9% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 53.5% | ||
| Labor | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 46.5% |
NB. Sample = 1,792. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Next election
Q. Which party do you think is most likely to win the next Federal election due in 2016?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
| Labor Party |
46% |
84% |
16% |
66% |
40% |
|
| Liberal/National Party |
27% |
2% |
64% |
7% |
16% |
|
| Can’t say |
27% |
14% |
20% |
27% |
44% |
46% think the Labor Party is most likely to win the next election and 27% think the Liberal/National Party is most likely to win. 27% could not give an opinion.
84% of Labor voters think the Labor Party is most likely to win and 64% of Liberal/National voters think the Liberal/National Party will win.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,796 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 9/9/14 |
2 weeks ago 23/9/14 |
Last week 30/9/14 |
This week 7/10/14 |
| Liberal |
|
36% |
36% |
37% |
38% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
|
| Total Liberal/National |
45.6% |
39% |
39% |
40% |
40% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
38% |
39% |
39% |
39% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 9/9/14 |
2 weeks ago 23/9/14 |
Last week 30/9/14 |
This week 7/10/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
48% |
47% |
48% |
48% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
52% |
53% |
52% |
52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,775 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 12/8/14 |
2 weeks ago 26/8/14 |
Last week 2/9/14 |
This week 9/9/14 |
| Liberal |
|
38% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
|
| Total Liberal/National |
45.6% |
41% |
39% |
40% |
39% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
39% |
37% |
38% |
38% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
8% |
10% |
9% |
10% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
5% |
6% |
5% |
4% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 12/8/14 |
2 weeks ago 26/8/14 |
Last week 2/9/14 |
This week 9/9/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
49% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
51% |
52% |
52% |
52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Most important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
|
Total 22 Apr 14 |
|
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Grn |
Vote other |
|
23 Jul 13 |
30 Jul 12 |
6 June 11 |
25 Jan 10 |
|
| Management of the economy |
54% |
43% |
75% |
22% |
44% |
45% |
64% |
61% |
63% |
||
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
27% |
35% |
18% |
38% |
20% |
25% |
26% |
26% |
23% |
||
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
50% |
54% |
43% |
62% |
52% |
42% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
||
| Protecting the environment |
13% |
12% |
7% |
42% |
14% |
12% |
11% |
15% |
16% |
||
| A fair industrial relations system |
12% |
17% |
11% |
8% |
12% |
10% |
12% |
8% |
na |
||
| Political leadership |
15% |
11% |
24% |
6% |
13% |
21% |
25% |
17% |
23% |
||
| Addressing climate change |
10% |
13% |
4% |
28% |
9% |
11% |
9% |
15% |
16% |
||
| Controlling interest rates |
9% |
9% |
11% |
2% |
7% |
13% |
9% |
13% |
15% |
||
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
37% |
39% |
37% |
18% |
37% |
39% |
41% |
32% |
33% |
||
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
4% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
12% |
||
| Housing affordability |
17% |
18% |
16% |
13% |
19% |
17% |
13% |
16% |
14% |
||
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
20% |
19% |
20% |
9% |
23% |
20% |
18% |
17% |
14% |
||
| Security and the war on terrorism |
5% |
3% |
8% |
3% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
8% |
9% |
||
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
8% |
5% |
5% |
32% |
9% |
14% |
10% |
5% |
na |
||
| Managing population growth |
9% |
6% |
10% |
8% |
16% |
9% |
8% |
12% |
na |
54% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 50% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 37% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 27% ensuring a quality education for all children.
Main changes since this question was asked last July – management of the economy up 9%, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system up 8%, political leadership down 6% and treatment of asylum seekers down 6%.
Voting decision
Q. Thinking about the Federal election to be held this year, when do you expect you will make your final decision about who you will vote for?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party |
Don’t know |
|
| I have already decided |
53% |
55% |
69% |
36% |
29% |
8% |
|
| During the election campaign |
15% |
19% |
12% |
24% |
18% |
6% |
|
| In the last week before the election |
12% |
11% |
9% |
15% |
25% |
7% |
|
| The day before the election |
3% |
4% |
2% |
9% |
1% |
2% |
|
| On the day of the election |
8% |
7% |
4% |
9% |
20% |
18% |
|
| Don’t know |
9% |
5% |
4% |
8% |
7% |
60% |
53% say they have already decided who they will be voting for in the Federal election, 30% will finally make up their mind at some stage before election day and 8% will decide on election day.
Those least likely to have made up their mind were aged 18-24 (33%), Greens voters (36%), other party/independent voters (29%) and respondents with university education (48%).
Next election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until later in 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
|
5 |
5 |
30 |
5 |
30 |
Total 29 |
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
|
| Should run to later in 2013 |
40% |
47% |
48% |
46% |
48% |
51% |
84% |
25% |
76% |
| Should hold election now |
48% |
41% |
41% |
44% |
42% |
35% |
4% |
66% |
12% |
| Don’t know |
12% |
12% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
14% |
12% |
8% |
12% |
51% think the Labor Government should run its full term until later in 2013 and 35% think an election should be held now. 14% don’t know.
Opinions have shifted away having an early election since this question was polled in April 2012.
Voting behaviour in a federal election
Q. Thinking about Federal elections, which of the following best describes you how you vote?
|
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| I usually vote for the same party but have voted for another party occasionally |
36% |
|
41% |
40% |
34% |
| I always vote for the same party |
30% |
|
36% |
34% |
25% |
| I don’t have any usual party preference and just decide who to vote for each election on its own |
13% |
|
8% |
9% |
19% |
| I often switch my vote between Labor and Liberals or Nationals. |
9% |
|
5% |
15% |
3% |
| I often switch my vote between a major party (Labor or Liberal) and a minor party (e.g. Greens) or an independent |
5% |
7% |
1% |
11% |
|
| Don’t know |
8% |
4% |
1% |
7% |
The greatest portion of respondents claim to usually vote for the same party but have voted for another party occasionally (36%). A slightly smaller portion of respondents claim to always vote for the same party (30%).
Thirteen percent (13%) of respondents don’t have any usual party preference. Nine percent (9%) claim to switch their vote between Labor and Liberals/Nationals (9%) and 5% claim to switch their vote between a major party and a minor party.
Looking at the results by voting intention, 41% of Labor voters and 40% of Lib/Nat voters usually vote for the same party but have voted for another party occasionally. Again, a fairly equal portion of Labor voters (36%) and Lib/Nat voters (34%) claim to always vote for the same party.
Greens voters are the most likely to claim that don’t have a usual party preference (19%) and that they often switch their vote between a major party and a minor party (11%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 14 May 2019
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