Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 22, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,888 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

24/9/12

2 weeks ago

8/10/12

Last week

15/10/12

This week

22/10/12

Liberal

45%

44%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

47%

47%

47%

Labor

38.0%

35%

37%

36%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

7%

8%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

53%

53%

53%

Labor

50.1%

45%

47%

47%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 24, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1992 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

27/08/12

2 weeks ago

10/9/2012

Last week 17/09/2012

This week

Liberal

46%

44%

45%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

47%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

32%

34%

34%

35%

Greens

11.8%

10%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 27/08/12

2 weeks ago

10/9/2012

This week

17/09/2012

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

55%

55%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

45%

45%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Liberal Party and WorkChoices

Jul 23, 2012

Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?

 

31 May 10

12 July 10

21 Nov 11

Total

23 Jul 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Total likely

58%

56%

51%

53%

78%

40%

55%

53%

53%

Total unlikely

21%

24%

27%

22%

11%

34%

14%

24%

15%

Very likely

28%

26%

22%

26%

52%

9%

38%

27%

23%

Quite likely

30%

30%

29%

27%

26%

31%

17%

26%

30%

Not very likely

18%

18%

19%

16%

6%

26%

13%

18%

11%

Not at all likely

3%

6%

8%

6%

5%

8%

1%

6%

4%

Don’t know

20%

20%

22%

26%

11%

26%

30%

23%

32%

Respondents were a little more likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked last year. 53% (up 2%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 22% (down 5%) think it is unlikely.

78% of Labor voters and 55% of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters are split 40% likely (up 7%) to 34% unlikely (down 10%).

Concern about Liberals Bringing Back WorkChoices

Jul 23, 2012

Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?  

 

31 May 10

12 July 10

21 Nov 11

Total

23 Jul 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Very concerned

28%

29%

26%

30%

60%

7%

39%

33%

28%

Quite concerned

17%

19%

15%

16%

16%

14%

17%

16%

21%

A little concerned

20%

16%

20%

15%

11%

18%

20%

14%

17%

Not concerned

24%

25%

27%

26%

7%

48%

5%

28%

19%

Don’t know

11%

11%

11%

14%

6%

12%

20%

11%

15%

Respondents were also more concerned about the re-introduction of WorkChoices than last year. 46% (up 5%) would be quite or very concerned if WorkChoices or similar laws were re-introduced and 41% (down 6%) were only a little or not concerned.

76% of Labor voters and 56% of Greens voters would be concerned. 66% of Liberal/National voters would be a little/not concerned and 21% concerned.  49% of full-time workers and part-time workers said they would be very/quite concerned.

51% of those aged 45-64 said they would be very/quite concerned.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 9, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,876 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

12/6/12

2 weeks ago

25/6/12

Last week

2/7/12

This week

9/7/12

Liberal

46%

46%

45%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

32%

33%

32%

31%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

8%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 2, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,846 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

4/6/12

2 weeks ago

18/6/12

Last week

25/6/12

This week

2/7/12

Liberal

47%

46%

46%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

50%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

33%

33%

32%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

8%

8%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Carbon Tax

Jun 25, 2012

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which, from July 2012, will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

 

7 Mar 2011

18 Apr

23 May

14 Jun

18 Jul

1 Aug

19 Sep

17 Oct

21 Nov

Total

25 Jun 12

Vote ALP

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Total support

35%

39%

41%

38%

39%

39%

37%

39%

38%

35%

67%

13%

74%

Total oppose

48%

49%

44%

49%

49%

51%

52%

53%

53%

54%

21%

81%

21%

Strongly support

9%

13%

14%

13%

15%

15%

14%

14%

14%

14%

28%

4%

38%

Support

26%

26%

27%

25%

24%

24%

23%

25%

24%

21%

39%

9%

36%

Oppose

19%

15%

15%

19%

16%

19%

17%

17%

17%

19%

12%

24%

13%

Strongly oppose

29%

34%

29%

30%

33%

32%

35%

36%

36%

35%

9%

57%

8%

Don’t know

18%

12%

15%

13%

12%

10%

12%

9%

10%

11%

12%

7%

6%

Support for the carbon pricing scheme has fallen a little since this question was asked in November last year. 35% (down 3%) support the scheme and 54% oppose (up 1%).

All demographic groups were more likely to oppose than support – although younger respondents showed higher support than older respondents. Support/oppose by age was 39%/45% for aged 18-34, 32%/56% for aged 35-54 and 33%/61% for aged 55+.

Likelihood of Repealing the Carbon Tax

Jun 25, 2012

Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total likely

44%

28%

64%

42%

Total unlikely

40%

62%

22%

41%

Very likely

17%

15%

24%

14%

Quite likely

27%

13%

40%

28%

Not very likely

24%

29%

18%

24%

Not at all likely

16%

33%

4%

17%

Don’t know

17%

11%

14%

17%

44% think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax if they won the next election and 40% think it is unlikely.

Views were broadly similar across demographic groups – although those aged 45-64 split 44% likely/44% unlikely.

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