050813, 2PP, 5 August 2013, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,903 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 8/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 23/7/13 |
Last week 29/7/13 |
This week 5/8/13 |
| Liberal |
|
42% |
42% |
41% |
40% |
|
| National |
4% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
||
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
46% |
45% |
44% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
38% |
39% |
39% |
38% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
7% |
9% |
9% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
10% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 8/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 23/7/13 |
Last week 29/7/13 |
This week 5/8/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
52% |
51% |
51% |
51% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
48% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
050813, 5 August 2013, firmness of vote, swing voters
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
44% |
40% |
59% |
23% |
18% |
|
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
30% |
35% |
25% |
36% |
25% |
|
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
21% |
18% |
14% |
35% |
49% |
|
| Don’t know |
5% |
7% |
3% |
3% |
9% |
44% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 30% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 21% say it is quite possible they will change.
Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (35%), other party and independent voters (49%), aged 18-24 (32%) and women (25%).
5 August 2013, 50813, affordable housing, climate change, environment, health system, leader trust, management of the economy, quality education, trust to handle issues, water supply
Q. Which party leader – Kevin Rudd or Tony Abbott – would you trust most to handle the following issues?
|
Kevin Rudd |
Tony Abbott |
No difference |
Don’t know |
Net difference |
Difference for parties 23 Jul 13 |
|
| Management of the economy |
32% |
35% |
21% |
11% |
-3 |
-15 |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
41% |
25% |
24% |
10% |
+16 |
+9 |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
37% |
27% |
25% |
11% |
+10 |
+1 |
| Protecting the environment |
33% |
22% |
31% |
14% |
+11 |
na |
| A fair industrial relations system |
41% |
28% |
19% |
12% |
+13 |
+11 |
| Political leadership |
37% |
32% |
22% |
9% |
+5 |
-7 |
| Addressing climate change |
35% |
21% |
31% |
13% |
+14 |
na |
| Controlling interest rates |
24% |
32% |
32% |
12% |
-8 |
-14 |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
32% |
30% |
25% |
13% |
+2 |
-1 |
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
26% |
23% |
36% |
15% |
+3 |
-7 |
| Housing affordability |
26% |
25% |
34% |
15% |
+1 |
-2 |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
31% |
32% |
26% |
11% |
-1 |
-2 |
| Security and the war on terrorism |
25% |
29% |
33% |
13% |
-4 |
-15 |
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
26% |
31% |
32% |
11% |
-5 |
-11 |
| Managing population growth |
21% |
28% |
37% |
15% |
-7 |
-13 |
Substantially more respondents said they would trust Kevin Rudd more than Tony Abbott to handle a quality education for all children, a fair industrial relations system, addressing climate change, protecting the environment and ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system. Tony Abbott is more trusted to control interest rates and manage population growth.
When compared with a similar question about trust in the parties asked last month, Kevin Rudd rates considerably better that the Labor Party on management of the economy, political leadership and security and the war on terrorism.
050813, 5 August 2013, approach to asylum seekers, kevin rudd, Operation sovereign borders, PNG policy, tony abbott
Q. The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and the Opposition leader Tony Abbott have both recently made statements about the handling of asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat.
Do you think Kevin Rudd’s approach to handling asylum seekers is too harsh, too soft or about right?
Do you think Tony Abbott’s approach to handling asylum seekers is too harsh, too soft or about right?
|
Kevin Rudd |
|
Tony Abbott |
|||||||
|
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Too harsh |
20% |
19% |
18% |
49% |
21% |
38% |
5% |
42% |
|
| Too soft |
24% |
12% |
35% |
13% |
20% |
21% |
16% |
21% |
|
| About right |
40% |
53% |
33% |
25% |
31% |
11% |
61% |
7% |
|
| Don’t know |
16% |
16% |
14% |
13% |
27% |
31% |
18% |
30% |
|
40% of respondents think Kevin Rudd’s approach to handling asylum seekers is about right and 31% think Tony Abbott’s approach is about right. Views are similar for both approaches in terms of whether they are too soft or too harsh – about one in five selected each option.
Kevin Rudd’s approach was more favoured by Labor voters (53%), aged 45-64 (45%) and tradespeople (51%). Tony Abbott’s approach was more favoured by Liberal/National voters (61%), men (37%), aged 65+ (46%) and tradespeople (40%).
050813, 5 August 2013, election 2013, Federal Election, vote decision
Q. Thinking about the Federal election to be held this year, when do you expect you will make your final decision about who you will vote for?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party |
Don’t know |
|
| I have already decided |
53% |
55% |
69% |
36% |
29% |
8% |
|
| During the election campaign |
15% |
19% |
12% |
24% |
18% |
6% |
|
| In the last week before the election |
12% |
11% |
9% |
15% |
25% |
7% |
|
| The day before the election |
3% |
4% |
2% |
9% |
1% |
2% |
|
| On the day of the election |
8% |
7% |
4% |
9% |
20% |
18% |
|
| Don’t know |
9% |
5% |
4% |
8% |
7% |
60% |
53% say they have already decided who they will be voting for in the Federal election, 30% will finally make up their mind at some stage before election day and 8% will decide on election day.
Those least likely to have made up their mind were aged 18-24 (33%), Greens voters (36%), other party/independent voters (29%) and respondents with university education (48%).