Better or worse Government
Q. After the election the Coalition Government will not have a majority in the Senate – they will need the support of the minor parties and independents to pass legislation. Do you think this will result in a better or worse Government for Australia?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
| Total better |
44% |
53% |
32% |
62% |
59% |
|
| Total worse |
30% |
24% |
44% |
20% |
11% |
|
| A lot better |
18% |
25% |
9% |
26% |
33% |
|
| A little better |
26% |
28% |
23% |
36% |
26% |
|
| A little worse |
16% |
10% |
24% |
14% |
6% |
|
| A lot worse |
14% |
14% |
20% |
6% |
5% |
|
| Make no difference |
10% |
10% |
8% |
8% |
18% |
|
| Don’t know |
16% |
13% |
16% |
9% |
12% |
44% think that better Government will result from the Coalition needing the support of minor parties and independents in the Senate while 30% think it will result in worse Government.
A majority of Labor, Greens and other voters think it will result in better Government while 44% of Liberal/National voters think it will result in worse Government.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. The Federal Election will be held next weekend on 7 September – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
The table below shows weekly figures through the election campaign.
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
5/8/13 |
13/8/13 |
19/8/13 |
26/8/13 |
2/9/13 |
5/9/13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Liberal National |
43.6% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
41% |
39% |
36% |
35% |
35% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
7% |
9% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
11% |
9% |
8% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
5/8/13 |
13/8/13 |
19/8/13 |
26/8/13 |
2/9/13 |
5/9/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
51% |
53% |
52% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
47% |
48% |
Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Opinion of Kevin Rudd
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party gone up or down?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total gone up |
16% |
33% |
6% |
9% |
|
| Total gone down |
40% |
12% |
65% |
42% |
|
| Gone up a lot |
7% |
16% |
2% |
6% |
|
| Gone up a little |
9% |
17% |
4% |
3% |
|
| Stayed the same |
38% |
53% |
26% |
47% |
|
| Gone down a little |
14% |
9% |
16% |
25% |
|
| Gone down a lot |
26% |
3% |
49% |
17% |
|
| Don’t know |
5% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
16% say their opinion of Kevin Rudd has gone up since the election was called and 40% say it has gone down. Views follow party preferences with 65% of Liberal/national voters saying their opinion of Kevin Rudd had gone down and 33% of Labor voters saying their opinion had gone up. Greens voters opinions were more likely to have gone down.
Weekly voting intention
The following tables show the weekly voting intention since the election was called.
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
3 weeks ago 13/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
Last week 26/8/13 |
This week 2/9/13 |
| Sample |
|
973 |
926 |
976 |
938 |
918 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Liberal National |
43.6% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
41% |
39% |
36% |
35% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
7% |
9% |
11% |
10% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
11% |
9% |
8% |
10% |
11% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
3 weeks ago 13/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
Last week 26/8/13 |
This week 2/9/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
51% |
53% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
47% |
Voting decision
Q. Thinking about the Federal election to be held this year, when do you expect you will make your final decision about who you will vote for?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party |
Don’t know |
|
| I have already decided |
53% |
55% |
69% |
36% |
29% |
8% |
|
| During the election campaign |
15% |
19% |
12% |
24% |
18% |
6% |
|
| In the last week before the election |
12% |
11% |
9% |
15% |
25% |
7% |
|
| The day before the election |
3% |
4% |
2% |
9% |
1% |
2% |
|
| On the day of the election |
8% |
7% |
4% |
9% |
20% |
18% |
|
| Don’t know |
9% |
5% |
4% |
8% |
7% |
60% |
53% say they have already decided who they will be voting for in the Federal election, 30% will finally make up their mind at some stage before election day and 8% will decide on election day.
Those least likely to have made up their mind were aged 18-24 (33%), Greens voters (36%), other party/independent voters (29%) and respondents with university education (48%).
Involvement in politics
Q. Thinking about Federal politics and the election, which of the following have you personally done in the last week?
|
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Seen any TV advertising by political parties |
43% |
46% |
44% |
38% |
|
| Received printed material from candidates. |
27% |
26% |
27% |
35% |
|
| Read about Federal politics in a newspaper |
41% |
43% |
43% |
39% |
|
| Watched Federal politicians on TV |
56% |
63% |
54% |
57% |
|
| Listened to Federal politicians on the radio |
22% |
21% |
22% |
32% |
|
| Listened to commentators talking about Federal politics on the radio |
30% |
32% |
29% |
34% |
|
| Watched commentators talking about Federal politics on the TV |
48% |
54% |
47% |
47% |
|
| Read anything about Federal politics on the internet |
39% |
47% |
33% |
49% |
|
| Discussed Federal politics and the election with friends or family |
50% |
56% |
46% |
60% |
TV was the most common way for respondents to engage with politics over the past week. 56% said they had watched Federal politicians on TV and 48% had watched commentators talking about Federal politics on TV.
Labor voters were more likely to watch politicians (63%) or commentators (54%) on TV and also more likely to use the internet to read about politics (47%).
There were some substantial differences by age group – 30% of respondents aged under 35 read about politics in a newspaper compared to 57% of those aged 55+ and 42% of aged under 35 watched politicians on TV compared to 71% of aged 55+.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 14 May 2019
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