15 July 2013, 150713, 2PP, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,879 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 17/6/13 |
2 weeks ago 1/7/13 |
Last week 8/7/13 |
This week 15/7/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
43% |
42% |
42% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
4% |
4% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
35% |
36% |
38% |
39% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
7% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
7% |
8% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 17/6/13 |
2 weeks ago 1/7/13 |
Last week 8/7/13 |
This week 15/7/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
54% |
53% |
52% |
52% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
47% |
48% |
48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
15 July 2013, 150713, Approval of Kevin Rudd, approval of PM
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?
|
Kevin Rudd 31 May 10 |
Julia Gillard 5 Jul 10 |
|
Julia Gillard 11 Jun 13 |
Kevin Rudd 15 Jul 13 |
|
| Total approve |
41% |
48% |
37% |
50% |
|
| Total disapprove |
47% |
27% |
54% |
35% |
|
| Strongly approve |
7% |
14% |
10% |
18% |
|
| Approve |
34% |
34% |
27% |
32% |
|
| Disapprove |
25% |
13% |
21% |
15% |
|
| Strongly disapprove |
22% |
14% |
33% |
20% |
|
| Don’t know |
12% |
26% |
9% |
16% |
Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are substantially higher than Julia Gillard’s as last measured 5 weeks ago. 50% (up 13%) approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 35% (down 19%) disapprove – a net rating of +15 compared to Julia Gillard’s -17.
85% of Labor voters approve (up 6%) and 4% disapprove (down 10%).
By gender – men 54% approve/35% disapprove, women 44% approve/34% disapprove.
15 July 2013, 150713, Approval of Tony Abbott, tony abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 |
5 Jul
|
20 Dec |
14 June 11 |
12 Dec |
12 |
10 Dec |
14 |
11 |
11 Mar |
11 Jun |
|
15 Jul |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
33% |
36% |
37% |
40% |
39% |
|
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
48% |
53% |
54% |
56% |
57% |
53% |
51% |
49% |
51% |
|
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
10% |
11% |
|
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
32% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
29% |
30% |
30% |
28% |
|
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
25% |
27% |
22% |
22% |
17% |
21% |
|
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
28% |
30% |
31% |
30% |
31% |
29% |
32% |
30% |
|
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
15% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have dropped slightly over the past month. 39% (down 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 51% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -9 to -12 over the last 5 weeks.
75% (down 5%) of Coalition voters approve and 14% (up 3%) disapprove.
By gender – men 43% approve/50% disapprove, women 35% approve/51% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -3 to -7 and with women from -17 to -16.
15 July 2013, 150713, kevin rudd, preferred PM, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott?
|
Rudd/ |
Gillard/ Abbott |
Gillard/ Abbott |
|
Rudd/ Abbott |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd |
47% |
53% |
39% |
50% |
94% |
10% |
84% |
|
| Tony Abbott |
30% |
26% |
40% |
35% |
2% |
72% |
6% |
|
| Don’t know |
23% |
21% |
21% |
15% |
3% |
18% |
10% |
50% believe Kevin Rudd would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Kevin Rudd 51%/36% and women prefer Kevin Rudd 49%/33%.
15 July 2013, 150713, kevin rudd, Labor Party, leader election
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Kevin Rudd’s proposal for the leader of the Labor Party to be elected by both the Members of Parliament and the party members?
|
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Total approve |
56% |
73% |
45% |
64% |
|
| Total disapprove |
19% |
9% |
30% |
11% |
|
| Strongly approve |
18% |
33% |
7% |
29% |
|
| Approve |
38% |
40% |
38% |
35% |
|
| Disapprove |
11% |
8% |
14% |
7% |
|
| Strongly disapprove |
8% |
1% |
16% |
4% |
|
| Don’t know |
25% |
18% |
25% |
25% |
56% approve of Kevin Rudd’s proposal for election of the party leader and 19% disapprove. 73% of Labor voters approve.
15 July 2013, 150713, Australian economy, State of the Economy
Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?
|
|
28 May 12 |
8 Apr 13 |
|
Total 15 Jul 13
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Total good |
35% |
45% |
36% |
59% |
18% |
54% |
||
| Total poor |
29% |
26% |
30% |
14% |
45% |
12% |
||
| Very good |
6% |
8% |
6% |
10% |
1% |
10% |
||
| Good |
29% |
37% |
30% |
49% |
17% |
44% |
||
| Neither good nor poor |
33% |
28% |
30% |
25% |
34% |
33% |
||
| Poor |
20% |
17% |
22% |
12% |
32% |
11% |
||
| Very poor |
9% |
9% |
8% |
2% |
13% |
1% |
||
| Don’t know |
2% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
36% described the economy as good or very good and 30% poor/very poor – 30% said it was neither. This represents a net decline from +19 to +6 since April.
Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were people with incomes over $1,600pw (41%).
Those most likely to think the economy was poor/very poor were aged 55+ (35%) and people with incomes under $600pw (36%).
15 July 2013, 150713, Australian economy
Q. From what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?
|
17 May 10 |
9 |
4 |
26 Mar 12 |
18 |
29 |
|
Total
|
|
Vote ALP |
Vote |
Vote Greens |
|
| The right direction |
51% |
45% |
37% |
36% |
43% |
36% |
38% |
66% |
18% |
46% |
||
| The wrong direction |
25% |
29% |
43% |
41% |
32% |
39% |
42% |
15% |
66% |
30% |
||
| Don’t know |
24% |
25% |
20% |
22% |
25% |
25% |
20% |
18% |
16% |
24% |
38% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 42% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Since this question was asked in April, “right direction” has increased 2% and “wrong direction” increased 3%.
66% (down 2%) of Labor voters, 18% (down 3%) of Liberal/National voters and 46% (up 1%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. 43% of men think the economy is heading in the right direction compared to 34% of women.
15 July 2013, 150713, candidates, election 2013, federal politics, print material, tv ads by political parties
Q. Thinking about Federal politics and the election, which of the following have you personally done in the last week?
|
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Seen any TV advertising by political parties |
43% |
46% |
44% |
38% |
|
| Received printed material from candidates. |
27% |
26% |
27% |
35% |
|
| Read about Federal politics in a newspaper |
41% |
43% |
43% |
39% |
|
| Watched Federal politicians on TV |
56% |
63% |
54% |
57% |
|
| Listened to Federal politicians on the radio |
22% |
21% |
22% |
32% |
|
| Listened to commentators talking about Federal politics on the radio |
30% |
32% |
29% |
34% |
|
| Watched commentators talking about Federal politics on the TV |
48% |
54% |
47% |
47% |
|
| Read anything about Federal politics on the internet |
39% |
47% |
33% |
49% |
|
| Discussed Federal politics and the election with friends or family |
50% |
56% |
46% |
60% |
TV was the most common way for respondents to engage with politics over the past week. 56% said they had watched Federal politicians on TV and 48% had watched commentators talking about Federal politics on TV.
Labor voters were more likely to watch politicians (63%) or commentators (54%) on TV and also more likely to use the internet to read about politics (47%).
There were some substantial differences by age group – 30% of respondents aged under 35 read about politics in a newspaper compared to 57% of those aged 55+ and 42% of aged under 35 watched politicians on TV compared to 71% of aged 55+.