Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,756 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 26/8/14 |
2 weeks ago 9/9/14 |
Last week 16/9/14 |
This week 23/9/14 |
| Liberal |
|
36% |
36% |
35% |
36% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Liberal/National |
45.6% |
39% |
39% |
39% |
39% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
37% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
10% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
6% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 26/8/14 |
2 weeks ago 9/9/14 |
Last week 16/9/14 |
This week 23/9/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
48% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
52% |
52% |
53% |
53% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,802 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/14 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/14 |
Last week 26/8/14 |
This week 2/9/14 |
| Liberal |
|
39% |
37% |
36% |
36% |
|
| National |
|
2% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
|
| Total Liberal/National |
45.6% |
41% |
40% |
39% |
40% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
39% |
38% |
37% |
38% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
9% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
4% |
6% |
6% |
5% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
7% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/14 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/14 |
Last week 26/8/14 |
This week 2/9/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
49% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
51% |
52% |
52% |
52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
PUP and the Greens
Q. In the previous Parliament, the Greens held the balance of power. Would you have more confidence in a Parliament where the Greens held the balance of power or where the Palmer United Party held the balance of power?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
| More confidence in the Greens holding the balance |
27% |
38% |
14% |
76% |
13% |
|
| More confidence in the Palmer United Party holding the balance |
22% |
16% |
26% |
5% |
49% |
|
| No difference |
34% |
28% |
47% |
12% |
27% |
|
| Don’t know |
17% |
18% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
34% think it makes no difference whether the Greens or PUP hold the balance of power in the Senate. 27% would have more confidence in the Greens holding the balance of power and 22% have more confidence in PUP.
Liberal/National voters were more likely to think it makes no difference (47%) while 38% of Labor voters have more confidence in the Greens holding the balance.
Greens holding balance of power
Q. Do you think the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate has been good or bad for Australia?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
| Total good |
28% |
48% |
6% |
75% |
28% |
|
| Total bad |
37% |
18% |
68% |
– |
38% |
|
| Very good |
12% |
24% |
1% |
42% |
6% |
|
| Good |
16% |
24% |
5% |
33% |
22% |
|
| Neither good nor bad |
23% |
24% |
19% |
21% |
27% |
|
| Bad |
15% |
12% |
22% |
– |
20% |
|
| Very bad |
22% |
6% |
46% |
– |
18% |
|
| Don’t know |
11% |
12% |
6% |
4% |
7% |
28% think that the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate has been good for Australia and 37% think it has been bad.
75% of Greens voters and 48% of Labor voters think it has been good for Australia while 68% of Liberal/National voters think it has been bad.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,916 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 13/5/14 |
2 weeks ago 27/05/14 |
Last week 3/6/14 |
This week 11/6/14 |
| Liberal |
|
38% |
37% |
35% |
35% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
45.6% |
40% |
40% |
38% |
37% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
39% |
39% |
39% |
40% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
9% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
6% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
8% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 13/5/14 |
2 weeks ago 27/05/14 |
Last week 3/6/14 |
This week 11/6/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
48% |
48% |
47% |
46% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
52% |
52% |
53% |
54% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,936 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 6/5/14 |
2 weeks ago 20/05/14 |
Last week 27/5/14 |
This week 3/6/14 |
| Liberal |
|
38% |
38% |
37% |
35% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
45.6% |
40% |
40% |
40% |
38% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
38% |
40% |
39% |
39% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 6/5/14 |
2 weeks ago 20/05/14 |
Last week 27/5/14 |
This week 3/6/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
47% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
52% |
52% |
52% |
53% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,895 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 29/4/14 |
2 weeks ago 13/05/14 |
Last week 20/5/14 |
This week 27/05/14 |
| Liberal |
|
38% |
38% |
38% |
37% |
|
| National |
2% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
||
| Total Lib/Nat |
45.6% |
40% |
40% |
40% |
40% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
38% |
39% |
40% |
39% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
10% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
6% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 29/4/14 |
2 weeks ago 13/05/14 |
Last week 20/5/14 |
This week 27/05/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
52% |
52% |
52% |
52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,855 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 22/4/14 |
2 weeks ago 06/05/14 |
Last week 12/5/14 |
This week 19/05/14 |
| Liberal |
|
39% |
38% |
38% |
38% |
|
| National |
|
2% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
45.6% |
41% |
40% |
40% |
40% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
37% |
38% |
39% |
40% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
11% |
10% |
9% |
8% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5%% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 8/4/14 |
2 weeks ago 06/05/14 |
Last week 12/5/14 |
This week 19/05/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
49% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
51% |
52% |
52% |
52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.
Download this week's ReportEssential Report
Two Party Preferred:
In this week's report:
- Performance of Scott Morrison
- Performance of Anthony Albanese
- Preferred Prime Minister
- Federal government response to Covid-19
- State government response to Covid-19
- Better leadership during Covid-19 – PM vs state leader
- Attitudes towards Craig Kelly controversy and Scott Morrison’s leadership
- Views towards federal vs state government responsibility to manage Covid-19 hotel quarantine system
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