Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,864 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 (current figures) |
|
4 weeks ago 23/09/13 |
2 weeks ago 08/10/13 |
Last week 15/10/13 |
This week 22/10/13 |
| Liberal |
|
41% |
40% |
41% |
41% |
|
| National |
|
2% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
45.6% |
43% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
37% |
35% |
35% |
34% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
|
| Other/Independent |
12.4% |
11% |
12% |
12% |
11% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 23/09/13 |
2 weeks ago 08/10/13 |
Last week 15/10/13 |
This week 22/10/13 |
| Liberal National |
53.4% |
51% |
52% |
52% |
53% |
|
| Labor |
46.6% |
49% |
48% |
48% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,865 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 (current figures) |
|
4 weeks ago 9/9/13 |
2 weeks ago 23/9/13 |
Last week 1/10/13 |
This week 8/10/13 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
41% |
40% |
40% |
|
| National |
2% |
3% |
3% |
|||
| Total Lib/Nat |
45.5% |
45% |
43% |
43% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
35% |
37% |
36% |
35% |
|
| Greens |
8.7% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
|
| Other/Independent |
12.4% |
12% |
11% |
12% |
12% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 2/9/13 |
2 weeks ago 16/9/13 |
Last week 1/10/13 |
This week 8/10/13 |
| Liberal National |
53.4% |
52% |
52% |
|||
| Labor |
46.6% |
48% |
48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,886 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 (current figures) |
|
4 weeks ago 26/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 9/9/13 |
Last week 16/9/13 |
This week 23/9/13 |
| Liberal |
|
40% |
41% |
42% |
41% |
|
| National |
2% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
||
| Total Lib/Nat |
45.6% |
43% |
45% |
44% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
38% |
35% |
36% |
37% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
11% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
|
| Other/Independent |
12.4% |
9% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 26/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 9/9/13 |
Last week 16/9/13 |
This week 23/9/13 |
| Liberal National |
53.4% |
50% |
53% |
53% |
51% |
|
| Labor |
46.6% |
50% |
47% |
47% |
49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. The Federal Election will be held next weekend on 7 September – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
The table below shows weekly figures through the election campaign.
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
5/8/13 |
13/8/13 |
19/8/13 |
26/8/13 |
2/9/13 |
5/9/13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Liberal National |
43.6% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
41% |
39% |
36% |
35% |
35% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
7% |
9% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
11% |
9% |
8% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
5/8/13 |
13/8/13 |
19/8/13 |
26/8/13 |
2/9/13 |
5/9/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
51% |
53% |
52% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
47% |
48% |
Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,856 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
Last week 26/8/13 |
This week 2/9/13 |
| Liberal |
|
40% |
41% |
40% |
41% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
38% |
40% |
38% |
35% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
8% |
11% |
11% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
Last week 26/8/13 |
This week 2/9/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
52% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Party trust to handle issues
Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
|
Labor |
Liberal |
Greens |
Don’t know |
|
Difference 2 Sep 13 |
Difference 23 Jul 13 |
|
| Management of the economy |
32% |
47% |
4% |
18% |
-15 |
-15 |
|
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
42% |
32% |
8% |
19% |
+10 |
+9 |
|
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
37% |
34% |
8% |
21% |
+3 |
+1 |
|
| Protecting the environment |
19% |
21% |
43% |
17% |
+22 |
+18 |
|
| A fair industrial relations system |
41% |
31% |
7% |
21% |
+10 |
+11 |
|
| Political leadership |
31% |
40% |
6% |
23% |
-9 |
-7 |
|
| Addressing climate change |
24% |
23% |
32% |
21% |
+9 |
+7 |
|
| Controlling interest rates |
29% |
41% |
4% |
26% |
-12 |
-14 |
|
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
38% |
36% |
5% |
21% |
-2 |
-1 |
|
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
22% |
30% |
22% |
26% |
-8 |
-7 |
|
| Housing affordability |
30% |
32% |
7% |
31% |
-2 |
-2 |
|
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
32% |
37% |
6% |
26% |
-5 |
-2 |
|
| Security and the war on terrorism |
27% |
38% |
5% |
30% |
-11 |
-15 |
|
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
23% |
36% |
16% |
26% |
-13 |
-11 |
|
| Managing population growth |
24% |
33% |
9% |
34% |
-9 |
-13 |
Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.
The Labor Party is trusted more to handle a quality education for all children (+10) and a fair industrial relations system (+10).
The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle management of the economy (-15), treatment of asylum seekers (-13), controlling interest rates (-12) and security and the war on terrorism (-11).
There have been no major changes since this question was last asked in July.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,795 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 29/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 13/8/13 |
Last week 19/8/13 |
This week 26/8/13 |
| Liberal |
|
41% |
40% |
41% |
40% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
||
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
39% |
39% |
40% |
38% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
11% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 29/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 13/8/13 |
Last week 19/8/13 |
This week 26/8/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,902 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 22/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
Last week 13/8/13 |
This week 19/8/13 |
| Liberal |
|
42% |
40% |
40% |
41% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
45% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
39% |
38% |
39% |
40% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
8% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 22/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
Last week 13/8/13 |
This week 19/8/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
51% |
51% |
50% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
50% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 14 May 2019
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