02 September 2013, 020913, 2PP, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,856 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
Last week 26/8/13 |
This week 2/9/13 |
| Liberal |
|
40% |
41% |
40% |
41% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
38% |
40% |
38% |
35% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
8% |
11% |
11% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
Last week 26/8/13 |
This week 2/9/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
52% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
02 September 2013, 020913, election 2013, voting intention 2013 election
The following tables show the weekly voting intention since the election was called.
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
3 weeks ago 13/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
Last week 26/8/13 |
This week 2/9/13 |
| Sample |
|
973 |
926 |
976 |
938 |
918 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Liberal National |
43.6% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
41% |
39% |
36% |
35% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
7% |
9% |
11% |
10% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
11% |
9% |
8% |
10% |
11% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
3 weeks ago 13/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
Last week 26/8/13 |
This week 2/9/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
51% |
53% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
47% |
02 September 2013, 020913, firmness of vote, Voting intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
Total 5 Aug |
Total 19 Aug |
Total 26 Aug |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
54% |
57% |
63% |
39% |
20% |
44% |
46% |
47% |
||
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
27% |
25% |
25% |
39% |
33% |
30% |
32% |
30% |
||
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
15% |
14% |
9% |
17% |
39% |
21% |
17% |
18% |
||
| Don’t know |
4% |
4% |
3% |
6% |
8% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a significant increase in certainty about voting over the last week.
Other party and independent voters (39%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.
02 September 2013, 020913, Approval of Kevin Rudd
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?
|
Julia Gillard 11 Jun 13 |
|
Kevin Rudd 15 Jul |
Kevin Rudd 13 Aug |
Kevin Rudd 26 Aug |
|
Kevin Rudd 2 Sep |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
50% |
45% |
41% |
42% |
||
| Total disapprove |
54% |
35% |
43% |
45% |
47% |
||
| Strongly approve |
10% |
18% |
11% |
11% |
13% |
||
| Approve |
27% |
32% |
34% |
30% |
29% |
||
| Disapprove |
21% |
15% |
21% |
20% |
19% |
||
| Strongly disapprove |
33% |
20% |
22% |
25% |
28% |
||
| Don’t know |
9% |
16% |
12% |
14% |
11% |
Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings have remained much the same over the past week. 42% (up 1%) approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 47% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -4 to -5.
86% of Labor voters approve (up 4%) and 7% disapprove (down 1%).
By gender – men 46% approve/46% disapprove, women 39% approve/48% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -4 to 0 and with women from -5 to -9.
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan |
5
|
20 Dec |
14 June 11 |
12 Dec |
12 Jun 12 |
10 Dec |
11 Mar 13 |
11 Jun |
15 Jul |
13 Aug |
26 Aug |
|
2 Sep |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
37% |
40% |
39% |
37% |
37% |
40% |
|
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
48% |
53% |
54% |
56% |
51% |
49% |
51% |
51% |
52% |
49% |
|
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
7% |
10% |
11% |
9% |
10% |
13% |
|
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
32% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
30% |
30% |
28% |
28% |
27% |
27% |
|
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
25% |
22% |
17% |
21% |
21% |
23% |
19% |
|
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
28% |
30% |
31% |
29% |
32% |
30% |
30% |
29% |
30% |
|
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
15% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have improved over the past week. 40% (up 3%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 49% (down 3%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -9 over the past week.
80% (up 7%) of Coalition voters approve and 13% (down 5%) disapprove.
By gender – men 44% approve/49% disapprove, women 37% approve/50% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -2 to -5 and a shift with women from -28 to -13.
020913, 2 September 2013, attributes of Kevin Rudd
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd?
|
8 Jul 13 |
|
2 Sep 13 |
Change |
|
| Intelligent |
77% |
74% |
-3 |
|
| Hard-working |
70% |
70% |
– |
|
| Arrogant |
49% |
60% |
+11 |
|
| A capable leader |
58% |
54% |
-4 |
|
| Superficial |
44% |
54% |
+10 |
|
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
57% |
53% |
-4 |
|
| Aggressive |
43% |
53% |
+10 |
|
| Good in a crisis |
53% |
52% |
-1 |
|
| Erratic |
45% |
51% |
+6 |
|
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
39% |
46% |
+7 |
|
| Intolerant |
37% |
46% |
+9 |
|
| Visionary |
43% |
42% |
-1 |
|
| Narrow-minded |
34% |
38% |
+4 |
|
| Trustworthy |
42% |
35% |
-7 |
|
| More honest than most politicians |
41% |
35% |
-6 |
Kevin Rudd’s key attributes were intelligent (74%), hard-working (70%), arrogant (60%), a capable leader (54%) and superficial (54%).
Since this question was asked in July, there have been significant changes for arrogant (up 11%), superficial (up 10%), aggressive (up 10%) and intolerant (up 9%).
020913, 2 September 2013, Tony Abbott attributes
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 10 |
27 Jun 11 |
2 Apr 12 |
14 Jan 13 |
2 Apr |
23 Jun |
8 Jul |
|
2 Sep |
Change |
|
| Hard-working |
76% |
75% |
68% |
70% |
70% |
68% |
65% |
71% |
+6 |
|
| Intelligent |
70% |
61% |
56% |
64% |
63% |
62% |
60% |
63% |
+3 |
|
| Narrow-minded |
56% |
54% |
54% |
56% |
53% |
55% |
55% |
55% |
– |
|
| Arrogant |
59% |
60% |
61% |
61% |
56% |
59% |
54% |
52% |
-2 |
|
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
57% |
57% |
54% |
54% |
52% |
52% |
50% |
52% |
+2 |
|
| Superficial |
49% |
49% |
48% |
49% |
49% |
47% |
48% |
+1 |
||
| Aggressive |
– |
– |
– |
55% |
49% |
51% |
50% |
47% |
-3 |
|
| Intolerant |
– |
– |
– |
49% |
48% |
48% |
46% |
47% |
+1 |
|
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
50% |
48% |
49% |
47% |
49% |
44% |
45% |
46% |
+1 |
|
| A capable leader |
47% |
45% |
41% |
43% |
47% |
44% |
42% |
46% |
+4 |
|
| Erratic |
– |
– |
– |
51% |
45% |
47% |
45% |
43% |
-2 |
|
| Good in a crisis |
40% |
40% |
36% |
39% |
44% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
+1 |
|
| Trustworthy |
33% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
36% |
31% |
32% |
38% |
+6 |
|
| Visionary |
32% |
27% |
26% |
28% |
37% |
30% |
26% |
35% |
+9 |
|
| More honest than most politicians |
33% |
32% |
30% |
29% |
36% |
29% |
30% |
34% |
+4 |
Tony Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (71%), intelligent (63%), narrow-minded (55%), arrogant (52%) and out of touch with ordinary people (52%).
Since July, the largest shifts have been for visionary (+9), hard-working (+6) and trustworthy (+6).
020913, 2 September 2013, arrogant, capable leader, Crisis, erratic, intelligent
|
Rudd |
Abbott |
|
Difference |
|
| Good in a crisis |
52% |
39% |
+13 |
|
| Intelligent |
74% |
63% |
+9 |
|
| Arrogant |
60% |
52% |
+8 |
|
| A capable leader |
54% |
46% |
+8 |
|
| Erratic |
51% |
43% |
+8 |
|
| Visionary |
42% |
35% |
+7 |
|
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
53% |
46% |
+7 |
|
| Superficial |
54% |
48% |
+6 |
|
| Aggressive |
53% |
47% |
+6 |
|
| More honest than most politicians |
35% |
34% |
+1 |
|
| Hard-working |
70% |
71% |
-1 |
|
| Intolerant |
46% |
47% |
-1 |
|
| Trustworthy |
35% |
38% |
-3 |
|
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
46% |
52% |
-6 |
|
| Narrow-minded |
38% |
55% |
-17 |
Compared to Tony Abbott, Kevin Rudd is much likely to be considered good in a crisis (+13), intelligent (+9), arrogant (+8), a capable leader (+8), erratic (+8), visionary (+7) and understands the problems facing Australia (+7).
Tony Abbott is regarded by more respondents to be narrow-minded (-17) and out of touch with ordinary people (-6).