Essential Report

Federal voting intention

Jul 20, 2021

Q. If a federal election was held tomorrow, to which party would you give your first preference vote in the House of Representatives (Lower House)?

[If don’t know] Well which party are you currently leaning towards?

Q       This week

19/07

Two weeks ago

05/07

21/06 07/06 24/05 10/05 26/04 12/04 29/03 15/03 01/03 15/02
Liberal / Liberal Nationals / Country Liberals 34% 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 36% 34% 36% 35% 35% 36%
Nationals 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3%
Total: Coalition 37% 37% 38% 38% 37% 38% 39% 37% 39% 38% 37% 39%
Labor 36% 36% 36% 35% 35% 36% 34% 36% 36% 34% 34% 35%
Greens 10% 8% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 10% 8% 9% 9% 8%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%
Other/Independent 6% 5% 5% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7%
Undecided 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6%
 
2 Party Preferred (2PP+)
TOTAL: Coalition 45% 44% 45% 44% 44% 44% 46% 45% 46% 47% 45% 47%
Labor 47% 48% 47% 48% 48% 48% 46% 48% 47% 47% 48% 47%
Undecided 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6%

 

Leader attributes: Scott Morrison

Jul 20, 2021

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison?

  Jul’21 Change from Mid Mar’21 Mid Mar’21 Early

Mar’21

May’20 Jan’20 Oct’19 Dec’18
Plays politics 73%
Out of touch with ordinary people 59% +8% 51% 56% 47% 62% 56% 54%
Avoids responsibility 54% +6% 48% 49%
In control of their team 53% -9% 62% 56%
Good in a crisis 49% -15% 64% 59% 66% 32% 51% 41%
Trustworthy 47% -8% 55% 52% 56% 40% 43% 39%
More honest than most politicians 45% -8% 53% 50% 51% 39% 44% 39%
Visionary 39% -9% 48% 41% 48% 30% 42% 38%
Base (n) 1,100 1,124 1,074 1,059 1,081 1,088 1,026 
  • The majority of Australians (73%) think Scott Morrison ‘plays politics’.
  • Compared to mid-March, more Australians now think Scott Morrison is ‘out of touch with ordinary people’ (up 8 percentage points to 59%). More also now think the PM ‘avoids responsibility’ (up 6 percentage points to 54%).
  • Just under half of people now think Scott Morrison is ‘good in a crisis’ (down 15 percentage points since mid-March to 49%).
  • Compared to mid-March, fewer people also now think the PM is ‘in control of their team’ and ‘visionary’ (down 9 percentage points to 53% and 39% respectively), and less than half now think he is ‘trustworthy’ and ‘more honest than most politicians’ (down 8 percentage points to 47% and 45% respectively).

Federal government response to Covid-19

Jul 20, 2021

Q. Overall, how would you rate the federal government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak?

  19/07 05/07 07/06 24/05 12/04 15/03 01/03 15/02 01/02 30/11 16/11 02/11 05/10
Very poor 13% 12% 10% 6% 7% 5% 6% 5% 4% 6% 5% 5% 5%
Quite poor 19% 17% 14% 12% 10% 7% 8% 7% 11% 8% 9% 10% 12%
Neither good nor poor 23% 26% 22% 25% 21% 18% 24% 19% 19% 19% 18% 24% 22%
Quite good 32% 33% 38% 40% 40% 39% 39% 42% 42% 41% 41% 39% 39%
Very good 14% 11% 15% 18% 22% 31% 23% 27% 25% 26% 26% 22% 21%
TOTAL: Poor 31% 30% 24% 18% 17% 12% 14% 12% 14% 13% 15% 15% 18%
TOTAL: Good 46% 44% 53% 58% 62% 70% 62% 69% 67% 67% 67% 61% 60%
Base (n) 1,100 1,099 1,104 1,100 1,368 1,124 1,074 1,109 1,092 1,034 1,010 1,063 1,066

 

TOTAL: Good 19/07 05/07 07/06 24/05 12/04 15/03 01/03
NSW 49% 44% 62% 56% 66% 69% 64%
VIC 39% 40% 42% 57% 55% 65% 51%
QLD 46% 48% 54% 56% 63% 69% 66%
SA 51% 48% 58% 66% 62% 78% 68%
WA 51% 42% 49% 56% 65% 75% 66%
  • 46% of people rate the federal government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak as quite good or very good, with 31% rating it as poor.
  • Since peaking at 70% in March, positive rating of the federal government’s handling of Covid-19 has dropped off, falling to 44% earlier this month, the lowest rating recorded to date for this question which was first asked in March 2020.
  • Positive rating of the federal government’s handling of Covid-19 has improved in WA (up 9 percentage points to 51%), NSW (up 5 percentage points to 49%) and SA (up 3 percentage points to 48%).
  • In Victoria, positive rating is now at 39%, down from 65% in March. This positive rating also continues to drop in QLD, now 46% (from 69% in March).

State government response to Covid-19

Jul 20, 2021

Q. How would you rate your state government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak?

TOTAL: Good 19/07 05/07 07/06 24/05 12/04 15/03 01/03 15/02 01/02 30/11 16/11 02/11 05/10
NSW 54% 57% 69% 68% 73% 75% 72% 72% 71% 76% 75% 68% 65%
VIC 49% 50% 48% 63% 58% 62% 49% 59% 61% 60% 59% 55% 45%
QLD 62% 61% 65% 68% 72% 75% 73% 76% 78% 72% 71% 69% 69%
SA 68% 67% 67% 71% 75% 85% 78% 79% 80% 70% 76% 77% 81%
WA 77% 86% 75% 77% 84% 91% 85% 88% 80% 83% 82% 81% 83%
  • Amidst the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak and lockdown in NSW, positive rating of the state government’s response to Covid-19 continues to drop, now at 54% from 57% earlier this month and 69% in June.
  • With the current outbreak and lockdown in VIC, rating of the state government remains the lowest of all states at 49%, a similar level to earlier this month and last month (50% and 48% respectively).
  • While still the highest rating among all states, rating of the WA government has dropped to 77% from 86% earlier this month. This is similar to the level in June (75%).
  • Rating of the QLD and SA governments’ handling of Covid-19 remains high at 62% and 68% respectively (65% and 67% last month).

Uptake of a Covid-19 vaccine

Jul 20, 2021

Q. The Covid-19 vaccine rollout is underway in Australia.

Once a vaccine becomes available to you, how long would you wait before taking it?

  19/07 05/07 07/06 10/05 26/04 15/03 01/03 18/01 14/12 10/08
I’d get vaccinated as soon as possible / I’ve already been vaccinated / I’ve already had the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine / I’ve already had both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine 63% 51% 52% 44% 42% 49% 50% 42% 43% 56%
I’d get vaccinated, but wouldn’t do it straight away 27% 33% 36% 42% 42% 40% 40% 47% 46% 35%
I’d never get vaccinated 11% 16% 13% 14% 16% 12% 10% 11% 10% 8%
Base (n) 1,100 1,099 1,104 1,092 1,090 1,124 1,074 1,084 1,071 1,008
  •  Most Australians (63%) now say they would get vaccinated as soon as possible, already have been vaccinated, or already have had the first dose or both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine, an increase from earlier this month (51%). Less than a third of people now say they would get vaccinated but not straight away (27% from 33% earlier this month). This is the lowest proportion recorded since this question was first asked in August last year.
  • 11% now say they would never get vaccinated, fewer than earlier this month (16%).
18-34 19/07 05/07 07/06 10/05
I’d get vaccinated as soon as possible / I’ve already been vaccinated / I’ve already had the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine / I’ve already had both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine 50% 35% 45% 32%
I’d get vaccinated, but wouldn’t do it straight away 35% 39% 41% 48%
I’d never get vaccinated 15% 26% 15% 20%
Base (n) 341 341 347 340
NSW 19/07 05/07 07/06 10/05
I’d get vaccinated as soon as possible / I’ve already been vaccinated / I’ve already had the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine / I’ve already had both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine 65% 56% 56% 48%
I’d get vaccinated, but wouldn’t do it straight away 24% 30% 34% 40%
I’d never get vaccinated 11% 14% 10% 12%
Base (n) 354 553 349 349
  • With the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak and lockdown in NSW, more people in NSW now say they would get vaccinated as soon as possible, already have been vaccinated, or already have had the first dose or both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine compared to earlier this month (65% to 56% respectively). This is the highest proportion recorded since this question was first asked in August last year.
  • Consequently, fewer of those in NSW now say they would get vaccinated but not straight away (24% from 30% earlier this month). Fewer also now say they would never get vaccinated (11% from 14% earlier this month).
  • Half (50%) of those aged 18-34 now say they would get vaccinated as soon as possible, already have been vaccinated, or already have had the first dose or both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine, a significant increase from earlier this month (35%).

Reason those who would get vaccinated against Covid-19 have not been vaccinated yet

Jul 20, 2021

Q. Thinking about why you haven’t been vaccinated against Covid-19 yet, which of the following applies to you? Select all that apply.

[ASKED ONLY TO THOSE WHO SAY THEY WOULD GET VACCINATED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE / WOULD GET VACCINATED BUT NOT STRAIGHT AWAY]

  Total Gender Age Group
  Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+
I’m waiting for the Pfizer vaccine to be available to me 41% 39% 42% 47% 41% 30%
I’m waiting to see how others react to the vaccine first 29% 28% 29% 33% 31% 17%
I haven’t tried to book an appointment because I assume it will be too hard to get one 13% 14% 13% 20% 12% 4%
I can’t take time off work if I need to after getting vaccinated (e.g. if I feel unwell) 6% 8% 5% 10% 6% 1%
I can’t take time off work for the vaccine appointment 4% 5% 4% 6% 5% 1%
Other (please specify) 13% 10% 15% 7% 14% 19%
None of these 15% 16% 14% 4% 14% 34%
Base (n) 600 272 328 243 223 134
  • Once a vaccine becomes available to them, of those who say they would get vaccinated as soon as possible, or they would get vaccinated but not straight away, the most common reason out of those listed for not being vaccinated yet is ‘I’m waiting for the Pfizer vaccine to be available to me’ (41%).
  • Despite the AstraZeneca vaccine now being technically available to all adults, 47% of those aged 18-34 state waiting for Pfizer to be available to them as their top reason for not getting vaccinated yet, followed by 41% of those aged 35-54 and 30% of those over 55.
  • The second most common reason out of those listed is ‘I’m waiting to see how others react to the vaccine first’ (29%). Those aged 18-34 and 35-54 are more likely to state this than those over 55 (33% and 31% to 17% respectively).
  • 13% say the reason they haven’t been vaccinated yet is because they ‘haven’t tried to book an appointment because they assume it will be too hard to get one’. Those aged 18-34 are more likely to state this as their reason compared to older cohorts (20% to 12% of those aged 35-54 and 4% of those over 55).

Speed of NSW lockdown

Jul 20, 2021

Q. Overall, do you think NSW moved too quickly, too slowly or at about the right speed in terms of enforcing lockdown restrictions?

NSW This week

19/07

Two weeks ago

05/07

Moved too quickly 12% 10%
About the right speed 44% 51%
Moved too slowly 44% 39%
Base (n) 354 553
  • Compared to two weeks ago, more NSW residents now think NSW moved too slowly when enforcing lockdown restrictions (44% from 39%).
  • Fewer now think NSW moved at about the right speed (44% from 51% two weeks ago), and about the same proportion think NSW moved too quickly (12% from 10%).
  State
  NSW VIC QLD SA WA
Moved too quickly 12% 8% 7% 20% 13%
About the right speed 44% 31% 34% 28% 19%
Moved too slowly 44% 62% 60% 53% 68%
Base (n) 354 277 217 89 108
  • People from other states mostly think NSW moved too slowly with lockdown. Western Australians are most likely to think this (68%), followed by Victorians (62%), Queenslanders (60%) and South Australians (53%).
  Total Gender Age Group Federal Voting Intention
  Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Labor TOTAL: Coalition Greens TOTAL: Other
Moved too quickly 10% 13% 7% 14% 13% 4% 9% 10% 10% 13%
About the right speed 34% 37% 32% 39% 31% 34% 25% 44% 39% 33%
Moved too slowly 56% 50% 61% 47% 56% 63% 66% 46% 51% 54%
Base (n) 1,100 539 561 341 373 386 375 414 100 117

 

  State
  NSW VIC QLD SA WA
Moved too quickly 12% 8% 7% 20% 13%
About the right speed 44% 31% 34% 28% 19%
Moved too slowly 44% 62% 60% 53% 68%
Base (n) 354 277 217 89 108
  • Women are more likely than men to think NSW moved too slowly with lockdown (61% to 50% respectively).
  • The sentiment that NSW moved too slowly increases with age – 47% of those aged 18-34 hold this view, compared to 56% of those aged 35-54 and 63% of those over 55.
  • Labor voters are the most likely to think NSW moved too slowly with lockdown (66%), followed by minor/independent party voters (54%) and Greens voters (51%). Coalition voters are the least likely to think this (46%).

Time for Covid-19 milestones to occur for NSW

Jul 20, 2021

Q. How long do you think it will take for the following to occur in NSW?

This week

19/07

Two weeks up to one month One month up to six months Seven months up to one year One to two years More than two years Never
The Covid-19 outbreak in NSW is controlled 46% 33% 10% 5% 2% 4%
The lockdown in Greater Sydney is lifted 62% 28% 5% 2% 0% 2%
The lockdown in other affected areas in NSW is lifted (e.g. Blue Mountains, Central Coast, Wollongong and Shellharbour) 71% 20% 4% 2% 1% 3%
  • 46% of people think the Covid-19 outbreak in NSW will be controlled within a month. A further third (33%) think this will most likely happen within six months.
  • Most Australians are optimistic the NSW lockdown will be lifted within a month (62% in Greater Sydney and 71% in other affected areas of NSW).
NSW Two weeks up to one month
19/07 05/07
The Covid-19 outbreak in NSW is controlled 47% 50%
The lockdown in Greater Sydney is lifted 62% 76%
The lockdown in other affected areas in NSW is lifted (e.g. Blue Mountains, Central Coast, Wollongong and Shellharbour) 69% 77%
Base (n) 354 553
  • Most of those in NSW still expect the lockdown to be lifted within a month (62% in Greater Sydney and 69% in other affected areas of NSW), however this is less compared to the proportion who thought this two weeks ago (76% and 77% respectively).
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