Essential Report
Time to return to normal
Q. Thinking about the future, how long do you think it will take for the following to occur? / And how long do you think it will take for the following to occur in Australia?
| TOTAL: Within one year | This week
19/07 |
Last month
07/06 |
Three months ago
26/04 |
Last July
27/07/20 |
| Interstate travel will be allowed without restriction | 48% | – | – | – |
| The Covid-19 vaccine rollout will be completed in your state | 42% | – | – | – |
| Unemployment will return to pre-pandemic levels | 37% | 22% | 30% | 19% |
| The Covid-19 vaccine rollout will be completed in Australia | 31% | 18% | 30% | – |
| The housing market will return pre-pandemic levels | 30% | 18% | 33% | 22% |
| Quarantine will no longer be required after international travel | 22% | 12% | 23% | 25% |
| International travel will be allowed without restriction | 21% | 12% | 20% | 21% |
| Australia will pay off its national debt | 16% | 7% | 13% | 11% |
- A similar proportion of people as in April think most of the events above will occur within a year.
| TOTAL: Within one year | NSW | VIC | QLD | SA | WA |
| The Covid-19 vaccine rollout will be completed in your state | 48% | 38% | 33% | 43% | 44% |
- Those in NSW are most likely to think the Covid-19 vaccine rollout will be completed in their state within a year (48%), followed by Western Australians (44%) and South Australians (43%). Victorians and Queenslanders are less likely to think this (38% and 33% respectively).
| TOTAL: Within one year | Within the next six months | Seven months up to one year | One to two years | More than two years | Never | |
| Interstate travel will be allowed without restriction | 48% | 20% | 29% | 30% | 17% | 5% |
| The Covid-19 vaccine rollout will be completed in your state | 42% | 13% | 29% | 36% | 17% | 6% |
| Unemployment will return to pre-pandemic levels | 37% | 18% | 20% | 30% | 25% | 8% |
| The Covid-19 vaccine rollout will be completed in Australia | 31% | 11% | 20% | 35% | 26% | 8% |
| The housing market will return pre-pandemic levels | 30% | 14% | 16% | 28% | 24% | 18% |
| Quarantine will no longer be required after international travel | 22% | 8% | 14% | 33% | 35% | 10% |
| International travel will be allowed without restriction | 21% | 9% | 12% | 31% | 37% | 11% |
| Australia will pay off its national debt | 16% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 42% | 31% |
- Out of the events listed, people are most optimistic about interstate travel – just under half (48%) think interstate travel will be allowed without restriction within a year.
- 31% of Australians think the Covid-19 vaccine rollout will be completed nationally within a year. A further 35% think this will take one to two years, and about a quarter (26%) think this will take more than two years.
- 31% think it will take one to two years for international travel to be allowed without restriction, 37% think this will take more than two years.
Performance of Scott Morrison
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister?
| Jul’21 | Jun’21 | May’21 | Apr’21 | End Mar’21 | Mid Mar’21 | Feb’21 | Jan’21 | Dec’20 | Nov’20 | Oct’20 | Sep’20 | Aug’20 | |
| TOTAL: Approve | 51% | 57% | 58% | 54% | 57% | 62% | 65% | 61% | 62% | 66% | 63% | 64% | 66% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 40% | 36% | 32% | 37% | 35% | 29% | 28% | 30% | 28% | 25% | 27% | 28% | 23% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 11% |
| Base (n) | 1,099 | 1,104 | 1,092 | 1,368 | 1,100 | 1,124 | 1,109 | 1,084 | 1,071 | 1,010 | 1,082 | 1,076 | 1,010 |
| TOTAL: Approve | Jul’21 | Jun’21 | May’21 | Apr’21 |
| NSW | 53% | 59% | 64% | 55% |
| VIC | 49% | 52% | 51% | 51% |
| QLD | 49% | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| SA | 50% | 56% | 52% | 50% |
| WA | 45% | 41% | 28% | 36% |
- The Prime Minister’s approval rating has dropped to 51% (from 57% in June). This is the lowest approval rating in the last 12 months.
- Disapproval has increased to 40% (from 36% last month). This is the highest disapproval rating in the last 12 months.
- The PM’s approval rating has fallen in all states except for WA. It has dropped the most significantly in QLD (49% from 60% in June).
| TOTAL: Approve | Jul’21 | Jun’21 | May’21 | 12 Apr’21 | 29 Mar’21 | 15 Mar’21 | Feb’21 | Jan’21 | Dec’20 | Nov’20 |
| Men | 53% | 61% | 62% | 61% | 65% | 65% | 65% | 62% | 68% | 65% |
| Women | 49% | 52% | 55% | 46% | 49% | 59% | 65% | 59% | 56% | 67% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | ||||||||||
| Men | 41% | 34% | 31% | 32% | 30% | 28% | 28% | 32% | 25% | 28% |
| Women | 39% | 38% | 34% | 42% | 40% | 30% | 28% | 29% | 30% | 23% |
- Approval of Scott Morrison has fallen among both men and women to 53% and 49% respectively (from 61% and 52% in June). This is the lowest approval rating of the PM seen among men since last March, and among women since April.
- Disapproval of the PM among men has increased to 41% (from 34% in June), the highest disapproval rating among men since last March. Disapproval of the PM among women is at 39%, similar to last month but an increase from the level in May (34%).
Performance of Anthony Albanese
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Anthony Albanese is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Jul’21 | Jun’21 | May’21 | Apr’21 | Mar’21 | Feb’21 | Jan’21 | Dec’20 | Nov’20 | Oct’20 | Sep’20 | Aug’20 | |
| TOTAL: Approve | 41% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 41% | 40% | 42% | 43% | 40% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| TOTAL: Disapprove | 35% | 36% | 35% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 33% | 29% | 33% | 29% | 29% | 30% |
| Don’t know | 24% | 24% | 25% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 25% |
| Base (n) | 1,099 | 1,104 | 1,092 | 1,368 | 1,124 | 1,109 | 1,084 | 1,071 | 1,010 | 1,082 | 1,076 | 1,010 |
- The Opposition Leader’s approval rating has increased slightly to 41% (from 39% in June).
- Similarly, the proportion of people disapproving of Albanese and those unsure are both consistent with last month (35% and 24% respectively).
Preferred Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese?
| Jul’21 | Jun’21 | May’21 | Apr’21 | Mar’21 | Feb’21 | Jan’21 | Dec’20 | Nov’20 | Oct’20 | Sep’20 | Aug’20 | |
| Scott Morrison | 46% | 48% | 50% | 47% | 52% | 52% | 51% | 50% | 53% | 50% | 49% | 52% |
| Anthony Albanese | 28% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 26% | 24% | 25% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 24% | 26% | 25% | 22% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% |
| Base (n) | 1,099 | 1,104 | 1,092 | 1,368 | 1,124 | 1,109 | 1,084 | 1,071 | 1,010 | 1,082 | 1,076 | 1,010 |
- Less than half (46%) of Australians now believe that Scott Morrison would make a better PM than Anthony Albanese (48% last month).
- 28% think the opposition leader would make the better Prime Minister (same level in June). 26% of participants don’t know who would make the better PM.
| Men | Jul’21 | Jun’21 | May’21 | Apr’21 | Mar’21 | Feb’21 | Jan’21 | Dec’20 | Nov’20 | Oct’20 |
| Scott Morrison | 48% | 54% | 54% | 53% | 52% | 54% | 53% | 54% | 54% | 52% |
| Anthony Albanese | 31% | 30% | 26% | 29% | 30% | 28% | 28% | 29% | 28% | 29% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 16% | 20% | 18% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 19% |
| Women | ||||||||||
| Scott Morrison | 43% | 43% | 47% | 42% | 53% | 51% | 48% | 47% | 51% | 47% |
| Anthony Albanese | 26% | 25% | 22% | 26% | 23% | 21% | 22% | 19% | 20% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 31% | 31% | 31% | 32% | 24% | 29% | 31% | 34% | 28% | 31% |
- Less than half (48%) of men now believe Scott Morrison makes the better PM (54% in June), the lowest number since last March. About the same proportion as last month think Albanese would make the better PM (31%). More men are now unsure who would make the better PM (21% from 16% last month).
- The proportion of women who think Scott Morrison makes the better PM has dropped since May to 43% (from 47%). Just over a quarter (26%) of women now think Anthony Albanese would make the better PM (from 22% in May). 31% are undecided, consistent with the past few months.
Scott Morrison’s treatment of NSW vs other states during Covid-19
Q. Thinking about how Scott Morrison has treated your state compared to how he has treated NSW during the Covid-19 pandemic, which of the following is closer to your view? [ASKED TO ALL RESPONDENTS EXCEPT FOR THOSE IN NSW]
| Total | Gender | Age Group | Federal Voting Intention | |||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Labor | TOTAL: Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | ||
| Scott Morrison has treated my state less favourably than NSW | 37% | 41% | 33% | 38% | 39% | 34% | 51% | 26% | 43% | 35% |
| Scott Morrison has treated my state more favourably than NSW | 8% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 16% | 9% |
| Scott Morrison has treated my state the same as NSW | 29% | 29% | 29% | 21% | 27% | 37% | 19% | 47% | 19% | 31% |
| Unsure | 26% | 21% | 31% | 30% | 23% | 25% | 23% | 19% | 21% | 24% |
| Base (n) | 743 | 366 | 377 | 247 | 250 | 246 | 297 | 236 | 61 | 83 |
| State | ||||
| VIC | QLD | SA | WA | |
| Scott Morrison has treated my state less favourably than NSW | 40% | 35% | 22% | 50% |
| Scott Morrison has treated my state more favourably than NSW | 8% | 7% | 11% | 9% |
| Scott Morrison has treated my state the same as NSW | 26% | 32% | 39% | 18% |
| Unsure | 25% | 26% | 28% | 22% |
| Base (n) | 275 | 220 | 87 | 106 |
- Thinking about how Scott Morrison has treated NSW compared to how he has treated other states during the Covid-19 pandemic, which of the following is closer to your view? [ASKED TO RESPONDENTS IN NSW ONLY]
| Total | Gender | Age Group | Federal Voting Intention | |||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Labor | TOTAL: Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | ||
| Scott Morrison has treated NSW less favourably than other states | 14% | 16% | 11% | 19% | 14% | 9% | 18% | 9% | 20% | 9% |
| Scott Morrison has treated NSW more favourably than other states | 23% | 28% | 19% | 27% | 30% | 15% | 29% | 23% | 30% | 13% |
| Scott Morrison has treated NSW the same as other states | 46% | 41% | 50% | 35% | 39% | 59% | 33% | 57% | 40% | 53% |
| Unsure | 18% | 15% | 20% | 19% | 17% | 17% | 20% | 11% | 10% | 24% |
| Base (n) | 553 | 268 | 285 | 147 | 203 | 203 | 182 | 226 | 41 | 44 |
- When thinking about how Scott Morrison has treated their state compared to how he has treated NSW during the Covid-19 pandemic, over a third (37%) of respondents in states besides NSW say Scott Morrison has treated their state less favourably. 29% think Scott Morrison has treated their state the same as NSW and 26% are unsure. Only 8% think the PM has treated their state more favourably than NSW.
- Victorians and Western Australians are more likely than those in other states to think the PM has treated their state less favourably than NSW (40% and 50% respectively).
- When thinking about how Scott Morrison has treated NSW compared to how he has treated other states during the Covid-19 pandemic, just under half (46%) of those in NSW think the PM has treated their state equally, while 23% think he has treated NSW more favourably. 14% think the PM has treated NSW less favourably than other states, and 18% are unsure.
- In other states besides NSW, compared to other voters, Labor voters are most likely to think Scott Morrison has treated their state less favourably (51%), whereas Coalition voters are most likely to think their state has been treated equally (47%).
- In NSW, compared to other voters, Coalition voters are the most likely to think the PM has treated NSW equally (57%), while Labor voters are the least likely to think this (33%).
Federal government response to Covid-19
Q. Overall, how would you rate the federal government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak?
| 05/07 | 07/06 | 24/05 | 12/04 | 15/03 | 01/03 | 15/02 | 01/02 | 30/11 | 16/11 | 02/11 | 05/10 | 21/09 | |
| Very poor | 12% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Quite poor | 17% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 13% |
| Neither good nor poor | 26% | 22% | 25% | 21% | 18% | 24% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 24% | 22% | 21% |
| Quite good | 33% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 39% | 39% | 42% | 42% | 41% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 40% |
| Very good | 11% | 15% | 18% | 22% | 31% | 23% | 27% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 22% | 21% | 21% |
| TOTAL: Poor | 30% | 24% | 18% | 17% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 18% | 18% |
| TOTAL: Good | 44% | 53% | 58% | 62% | 70% | 62% | 69% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 61% | 60% | 61% |
| Base (n) | 1,099 | 1,104 | 1,100 | 1,368 | 1,124 | 1,074 | 1,109 | 1,092 | 1,034 | 1,010 | 1,063 | 1,066 | 1,081 |
| TOTAL: Good | 05/07 | 07/06 | 24/05 | 12/04 | 15/03 | 01/03 |
| NSW | 44% | 62% | 56% | 66% | 69% | 64% |
| VIC | 40% | 42% | 57% | 55% | 65% | 51% |
| QLD | 48% | 54% | 56% | 63% | 69% | 66% |
| SA | 48% | 58% | 66% | 62% | 78% | 68% |
| WA | 42% | 49% | 56% | 65% | 75% | 66% |
- Since peaking at 70% in March, positive rating of the federal government’s handling of Covid-19 has dropped off, falling sharply to 44% this month (from 53% last month). This is the lowest rating recorded to date for this question which was first asked in March 2020.
- Positive rating of the federal government’s handling of Covid-19 has decreased in all states since last month, however it has fallen the most steeply in NSW where it is now 44% (down 18 percentage points from 62% in June).
- In SA, WA and QLD, this rating has also decreased to 48%, 42% and 48% respectively (from 58%, 49% and 54% in June).
- After a sharp fall last month, positive rating of the federal government’s handling of Covid-19 remains the lowest of all states in VIC at 40%.
State government response to Covid-19
Q. How would you rate your state government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak?
| TOTAL: Good | 05/07 | 07/06 | 24/05 | 12/04 | 15/03 | 01/03 | 15/02 | 01/02 | 30/11 | 16/11 | 02/11 | 05/10 | 21/09 |
| NSW | 57% | 69% | 68% | 73% | 75% | 72% | 72% | 71% | 76% | 75% | 68% | 65% | 67% |
| VIC | 50% | 48% | 63% | 58% | 62% | 49% | 59% | 61% | 60% | 59% | 55% | 45% | 47% |
| QLD | 61% | 65% | 68% | 72% | 75% | 73% | 76% | 78% | 72% | 71% | 69% | 69% | 68% |
| SA | 67% | 67% | 71% | 75% | 85% | 78% | 79% | 80% | 70% | 76% | 77% | 81% | 81% |
| WA | 86% | 75% | 77% | 84% | 91% | 85% | 88% | 80% | 83% | 82% | 81% | 83% | 84% |
- With the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak and lockdown in NSW, positive rating of the state government’s response to Covid-19 has fallen steeply (down 12 percentage points from 69% in June).
- While restrictions continue to ease in Victoria, rating of the state government has improved only marginally compared to last month (now 50% from 48% in June).
- With Queensland affected by Covid-19 cases and a lockdown, rating of the state government remains moderately high but has decreased to 61% (from 65% last month).
- Despite WA also having been affected by Covid-19 cases and a lockdown, positive rating of the state government’s response to Covid-19 has improved significantly – up 11 percentage points to 86% (from 75% last month). This is consistent with the level in April.
- Rating of the SA government’s handling of Covid-19 remains high and stable at 67%.
Uptake of a Covid-19 vaccine
Q. The Covid-19 vaccine rollout is underway in Australia.
Once a vaccine becomes available to you, how long would you wait before taking it?
| 05/07 | 07/06 | 10/05 | 26/04 | 15/03 | 01/03 | 18/01 | 14/12 | 10/08 | |
| I’d get vaccinated as soon as possible / I’ve already been vaccinated / I’ve already had the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine / I’ve already had both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine | 51% | 52% | 44% | 42% | 49% | 50% | 42% | 43% | 56% |
| I’d get vaccinated, but wouldn’t do it straight away | 33% | 36% | 42% | 42% | 40% | 40% | 47% | 46% | 35% |
| I’d never get vaccinated | 16% | 13% | 14% | 16% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 8% |
| Base (n) | 1,099 | 1,104 | 1,092 | 1,090 | 1,124 | 1,074 | 1,084 | 1,071 | 1,008 |
- About half of Australians say they would get vaccinated as soon as possible, already have been vaccinated, or already have had the first dose or both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine (51%), consistent with last month.
- Slightly fewer people now say they would get vaccinated but not straight away (33% from 36% last month).
- 16% now say they would never get vaccinated.
| 18-34 | 05/07 | 07/06 | 10/05 |
| I’d get vaccinated as soon as possible / I’ve already been vaccinated / I’ve already had the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine / I’ve already had both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine | 35% | 45% | 32% |
| I’d get vaccinated, but wouldn’t do it straight away | 39% | 41% | 48% |
| I’d never get vaccinated | 26% | 15% | 20% |
| Base (n) | 341 | 347 | 340 |
| NSW | 05/07 | 07/06 | 10/05 |
| I’d get vaccinated as soon as possible / I’ve already been vaccinated / I’ve already had the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine / I’ve already had both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine | 56% | 56% | 48% |
| I’d get vaccinated, but wouldn’t do it straight away | 30% | 34% | 40% |
| I’d never get vaccinated | 14% | 10% | 12% |
| Base (n) | 553 | 349 | 349 |
- Despite the Covid-19 outbreak and lockdown in NSW, a consistent level of those in NSW say they would get vaccinated as soon as possible, already have been vaccinated, or already have had the first dose or both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine compared to last month (56%).
- Fewer of those in NSW now say they would get vaccinated but not straight away (30% from 34% last month), and slightly more now say they would never get vaccinated (14% from 10% last month).
- With the recent changes in the federal government’s Covid-19 vaccine rollout strategy affecting under 40s, fewer of those aged 18-34 now say they would get vaccinated as soon as possible, already have been vaccinated, or already have had the first dose or both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine (35% from 45% last month). This is consistent with the level in May.
- About a quarter (26%) of those aged 18-34 now say they would never get vaccinated (15% last month). This is the highest proportion recorded since this question was first asked in August last year.
- Slightly fewer of those 18-34 say they would get vaccinated but not straight away (39% from 41% last month).
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.
Essential Report
In this week's report:
- Federal voting intention
- Leader attributes: Scott Morrison
- Federal government response to Covid-19
- State government response to Covid-19
- Uptake of a Covid-19 vaccine
- Reason those who would get vaccinated against Covid-19 have not been vaccinated yet
- Speed of NSW lockdown
- Time for Covid-19 milestones to occur for NSW
Sign up for updates
Receive the Essential Report in your inbox.Essential Tags
2PP
Abbott
ALP
Anthony Albanese
Approval of opposition leader
Approval of Tony Abbott
asylum seekers
Australian economy
Bill Shorten
Carbon Tax
climate change
coronavirus
covid-19
economy
Education
Election
EMC
environment
ER
Essential Media
Essential Report
Federal Budget
Federal Government
federal politics
Gillard
Greens
Julia Gillard
kevin rudd
Labor
Labor Party
Liberal
Liberal Party
Liberals
mining
Nationals
Opposition leader
peter lewis
Polling
polls
Prime Minister
Scott Morrison
tony abbott
two party preferred
voting
Voting intention
Recent Comments
