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  • Aug, 2013

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,795 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    29/7/13

    2 weeks ago

    13/8/13

    Last week

    19/8/13

    This week

    26/8/13

    Liberal

     

    41%

    40%

    41%

    40%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    2%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    44%

    43%

    44%

    43%

    Labor

    38.0%

    39%

    39%

    40%

    38%

    Greens

    11.8%

    9%

    8%

    8%

    11%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    8%

    10%

    8%

    9%

     

    2 Party Preferred

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    29/7/13

    2 weeks ago

    13/8/13

    Last week

    19/8/13

    This week

    26/8/13

    Liberal National

    49.9%

    51%

    51%

    50%

    50%

    Labor

    50.1%

    49%

    49%

    50%

    50%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

  • Aug, 2013

    , , ,

    Firmness of voting intention

    Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?

     

    Total

    Gave voting intention

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Other party/ Independent

     

    Total

    5 Aug

    Total

    19 Aug

    I will definitely not change my mind

    47%

    46%

    60%

    26%

    22%

    44%

    46%

    It is very unlikely I will change my mind

    30%

    32%

    26%

    38%

    33%

    30%

    32%

    It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

    18%

    17%

    11%

    30%

    41%

    21%

    17%

    Don’t know

    4%

    5%

    3%

    6%

    5%

    5%

    5%

    47% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 30% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 18% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents little change since this question was asked a week ago.

    Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (30%), other party and independent voters (41%) and aged 25-34 (25%).

  • Aug, 2013

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    Approval of Kevin Rudd

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

     

    Julia Gillard

    11 Jun 13

     

    Kevin Rudd

    15 Jul

    Kevin Rudd

    13 Aug

     

    Kevin Rudd

    26 Aug

    Total approve

    37%

    50%

    45%

    41%

    Total disapprove

    54%

    35%

    43%

    45%

    Strongly approve

    10%

    18%

    11%

    11%

    Approve

    27%

    32%

    34%

    30%

    Disapprove

    21%

    15%

    21%

    20%

    Strongly disapprove

    33%

    20%

    22%

    25%

    Don’t know

    9%

    16%

    12%

    14%

    Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings have fallen since last measured 2 weeks ago. 41% (down 4%) approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 45% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +2 to -4.

    82% of Labor voters approve (down 6%) and 8% disapprove (up 2%).

    By gender – men 43% approve/47% disapprove, women 39% approve/44% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a shift with men from +6 to -4 and with women from -1 to -5.

  • Aug, 2013

    , ,

    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

     

    18 Jan

    2010

    5 Jul

     

    20 Dec

    14 June  2011

    12 Dec

    12 Jun 2012

    10 Dec

    11 Mar 2013

    11 Jun

    15 Jul

    13 Aug

     

    26 Aug

    Total approve

    37%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    32%

    32%

    33%

    37%

    40%

    39%

    37%

    37%

    Total disapprove

    37%

    47%

    39%

    48%

    53%

    54%

    56%

    51%

    49%

    51%

    51%

    52%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    9%

    6%

    6%

    6%

    8%

    7%

    10%

    11%

    9%

    10%

    Approve

    32%

    29%

    30%

    32%

    26%

    26%

    25%

    30%

    30%

    28%

    28%

    27%

    Disapprove

    20%

    23%

    21%

    25%

    25%

    24%

    25%

    22%

    17%

    21%

    21%

    23%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    24%

    18%

    23%

    28%

    30%

    31%

    29%

    32%

    30%

    30%

    29%

    Don’t know

    26%

    16%

    22%

    15%

    14%

    13%

    12%

    12%

    11%

    11%

    11%

    10%

    Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have changed little over the past two weeks. 37% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 52% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -14 to -15 over the last 2 weeks.

    73% (down 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 18% (up 4%) disapprove.

    By gender – men 45% approve/47% disapprove, women 29% approve/57% disapprove. In net terms this represents no net change with men (at -2) and a shift with women from -24 to -28.

  • Aug, 2013

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott?

     

    Gillard/ Abbott

    11 Jun 13

     

    Rudd/ Abbott

    15 Jul 13

     

    Rudd/ Abbott

    13 Aug 13

    Total

     

    Rudd/ Abbott

    26 Aug 13

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd

    39%

    50%

    47%

    43%

    89%

    4%

    63%

    Tony Abbott

    40%

    35%

    35%

    34%

    1%

    77%

    6%

    Don’t know

    21%

    15%

    18%

    23%

    10%

    19%

    31%

    43% (down 4%) believe Kevin Rudd would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.

    Men prefer Kevin Rudd 41%/38% and women prefer Kevin Rudd 45%/30%.

  • Aug, 2013

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    Involvement in election campaign

    Q. Over the last few weeks, which of the following types of involvement have you had in the Federal election campaign?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Met one of my local candidates

    8%

    10%

    8%

    5%

    Received election leaflets in my letterbox

    55%

    57%

    56%

    66%

    Been door-knocked by a political party

    4%

    5%

    4%

    3%

    Been handed election materials in the street

    7%

    9%

    7%

    6%

    Had a phone call from a political party

    5%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    Been surveyed by phone or door-to-door (not online surveys)

    4%

    6%

    4%

    1%

    Seen TV advertising or heard radio advertising from political parties

    57%

    60%

    58%

    66%

    Watched interviews with politicians on TV or heard them on radio

    44%

    43%

    46%

    56%

    Read articles about the election in newspapers or magazines

    38%

    35%

    39%

    53%

    Been to a political meeting or event

    2%

    2%

    2%

    Seen election advertising on Youtube or Facebook

    8%

    11%

    6%

    12%

    Joined a Facebook group related to the election

    4%

    5%

    2%

    5%

    Done volunteer work for a candidate (e.g. letterboxing)

    1%

    1%

    1%

    1%

    None of these

    26%

    22%

    27%

    17%

    57% say they have seen TV or heard radio advertising from political parties, 55% have received election leaflets in their letterbox, 44% have watched or heard interviews with politicians on TV or radio and 38% have read articles about the election.

    Greens voters were more likely to watch or listen to interviews with politicians (56%) and read articles (53%).

    Older respondents tended to be more engaged with the election – of those aged 55+, 59% had watched or listened to interviews with politicians and 51% had read articles about the election.

  • Aug, 2013

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    Paid parental leave

    Q. The Opposition’s parental leave policy is to give new parents up to 26 weeks leave at their current full rate of pay (up to $150,000) to be partly paid for by a 1.5 per cent levy on large companies. The Labor Government’s policy gives new parents 18 weeks leave at the minimum wage rate paid for by the Government. Which scheme do you support most?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    The Government’s scheme

    35%

    58%

    19%

    38%

    The Opposition’s scheme

    24%

    14%

    36%

    20%

    Neither

    28%

    15%

    35%

    25%

    Don’t know

    13%

    13%

    10%

    17%

    35% support the Government’s paid parental leave scheme and 24% support the Coalition’s scheme more. 28% support neither scheme.

    The Government’s scheme is supported by both men (37% to 25%) and women (34% to 23%).

    By age group, those aged 18-34 support the Coalition’s scheme 35% to 33% while aged 35-54 support the Government’s scheme 35% to 22% and those aged 55+ support the Government’s scheme 37% to 14%.

  • Aug, 2013

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    Likelihood of more spending cuts – Liberal Government

    Q. If the Liberal Party win Government, how likely do you think it is that they will be able to pay for their policies and election commitments without making more cuts in spending after the election?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Very likely

    9%

    1%

    19%

    5%

    Somewhat likely

    16%

    11%

    27%

    6%

    Somewhat unlikely

    20%

    19%

    24%

    14%

    Very unlikely

    41%

    61%

    16%

    66%

    Don’t know

    14%

    8%

    14%

    10%

    61% think it is unlikely that a Liberal Government will be able to pay for their policies and election commitments without making more cuts in spending after the election – only 25% think it is likely.

    40% of Liberal/National voters think it is unlikely.

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