26 August 2013, 260813, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,795 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 29/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 13/8/13 |
Last week 19/8/13 |
This week 26/8/13 |
| Liberal |
|
41% |
40% |
41% |
40% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
||
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
39% |
39% |
40% |
38% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
11% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 29/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 13/8/13 |
Last week 19/8/13 |
This week 26/8/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
26 August 2013, 260813, firmess of vote, Voting intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
Total 5 Aug |
Total 19 Aug |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
47% |
46% |
60% |
26% |
22% |
44% |
46% |
||
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
30% |
32% |
26% |
38% |
33% |
30% |
32% |
||
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
18% |
17% |
11% |
30% |
41% |
21% |
17% |
||
| Don’t know |
4% |
5% |
3% |
6% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
47% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 30% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 18% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents little change since this question was asked a week ago.
Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (30%), other party and independent voters (41%) and aged 25-34 (25%).
26 August 2013, 260813, Approval of Kevin Rudd
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?
|
Julia Gillard 11 Jun 13 |
|
Kevin Rudd 15 Jul |
Kevin Rudd 13 Aug |
|
Kevin Rudd 26 Aug |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
50% |
45% |
41% |
||
| Total disapprove |
54% |
35% |
43% |
45% |
||
| Strongly approve |
10% |
18% |
11% |
11% |
||
| Approve |
27% |
32% |
34% |
30% |
||
| Disapprove |
21% |
15% |
21% |
20% |
||
| Strongly disapprove |
33% |
20% |
22% |
25% |
||
| Don’t know |
9% |
16% |
12% |
14% |
Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings have fallen since last measured 2 weeks ago. 41% (down 4%) approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 45% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +2 to -4.
82% of Labor voters approve (down 6%) and 8% disapprove (up 2%).
By gender – men 43% approve/47% disapprove, women 39% approve/44% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from +6 to -4 and with women from -1 to -5.
26 August 2013, 260813, Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul
|
20 Dec |
14 June 2011 |
12 Dec |
12 Jun 2012 |
10 Dec |
11 Mar 2013 |
11 Jun |
15 Jul |
13 Aug |
|
26 Aug |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
37% |
40% |
39% |
37% |
37% |
|
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
48% |
53% |
54% |
56% |
51% |
49% |
51% |
51% |
52% |
|
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
7% |
10% |
11% |
9% |
10% |
|
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
32% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
30% |
30% |
28% |
28% |
27% |
|
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
25% |
22% |
17% |
21% |
21% |
23% |
|
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
28% |
30% |
31% |
29% |
32% |
30% |
30% |
29% |
|
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
15% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have changed little over the past two weeks. 37% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 52% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -14 to -15 over the last 2 weeks.
73% (down 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 18% (up 4%) disapprove.
By gender – men 45% approve/47% disapprove, women 29% approve/57% disapprove. In net terms this represents no net change with men (at -2) and a shift with women from -24 to -28.
26 August 2013, 260813, Better PM, kevin rudd, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott?
|
Gillard/ Abbott 11 Jun 13 |
|
Rudd/ Abbott 15 Jul 13
|
Rudd/ Abbott 13 Aug 13 Total |
|
Rudd/ Abbott 26 Aug 13 Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd |
39% |
50% |
47% |
43% |
89% |
4% |
63% |
||
| Tony Abbott |
40% |
35% |
35% |
34% |
1% |
77% |
6% |
||
| Don’t know |
21% |
15% |
18% |
23% |
10% |
19% |
31% |
43% (down 4%) believe Kevin Rudd would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Kevin Rudd 41%/38% and women prefer Kevin Rudd 45%/30%.
26 August 2013, 260813, candidate meeting, door-knocked, involvement with election campaign, leaflets, Tv advertising, volunteer
Q. Over the last few weeks, which of the following types of involvement have you had in the Federal election campaign?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Met one of my local candidates |
8% |
10% |
8% |
5% |
|
| Received election leaflets in my letterbox |
55% |
57% |
56% |
66% |
|
| Been door-knocked by a political party |
4% |
5% |
4% |
3% |
|
| Been handed election materials in the street |
7% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
|
| Had a phone call from a political party |
5% |
5% |
6% |
7% |
|
| Been surveyed by phone or door-to-door (not online surveys) |
4% |
6% |
4% |
1% |
|
| Seen TV advertising or heard radio advertising from political parties |
57% |
60% |
58% |
66% |
|
| Watched interviews with politicians on TV or heard them on radio |
44% |
43% |
46% |
56% |
|
| Read articles about the election in newspapers or magazines |
38% |
35% |
39% |
53% |
|
| Been to a political meeting or event |
2% |
2% |
2% |
– |
|
| Seen election advertising on Youtube or Facebook |
8% |
11% |
6% |
12% |
|
| Joined a Facebook group related to the election |
4% |
5% |
2% |
5% |
|
| Done volunteer work for a candidate (e.g. letterboxing) |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
| None of these |
26% |
22% |
27% |
17% |
57% say they have seen TV or heard radio advertising from political parties, 55% have received election leaflets in their letterbox, 44% have watched or heard interviews with politicians on TV or radio and 38% have read articles about the election.
Greens voters were more likely to watch or listen to interviews with politicians (56%) and read articles (53%).
Older respondents tended to be more engaged with the election – of those aged 55+, 59% had watched or listened to interviews with politicians and 51% had read articles about the election.
26 August 2013, 260813, labor scheme, liberal scheme, paid parental leave
Q. The Opposition’s parental leave policy is to give new parents up to 26 weeks leave at their current full rate of pay (up to $150,000) to be partly paid for by a 1.5 per cent levy on large companies. The Labor Government’s policy gives new parents 18 weeks leave at the minimum wage rate paid for by the Government. Which scheme do you support most?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The Government’s scheme |
35% |
58% |
19% |
38% |
|
| The Opposition’s scheme |
24% |
14% |
36% |
20% |
|
| Neither |
28% |
15% |
35% |
25% |
|
| Don’t know |
13% |
13% |
10% |
17% |
35% support the Government’s paid parental leave scheme and 24% support the Coalition’s scheme more. 28% support neither scheme.
The Government’s scheme is supported by both men (37% to 25%) and women (34% to 23%).
By age group, those aged 18-34 support the Coalition’s scheme 35% to 33% while aged 35-54 support the Government’s scheme 35% to 22% and those aged 55+ support the Government’s scheme 37% to 14%.
26 August 2013, 260813, liberal government, spending cuts
Q. If the Liberal Party win Government, how likely do you think it is that they will be able to pay for their policies and election commitments without making more cuts in spending after the election?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Very likely |
9% |
1% |
19% |
5% |
|
| Somewhat likely |
16% |
11% |
27% |
6% |
|
| Somewhat unlikely |
20% |
19% |
24% |
14% |
|
| Very unlikely |
41% |
61% |
16% |
66% |
|
| Don’t know |
14% |
8% |
14% |
10% |
61% think it is unlikely that a Liberal Government will be able to pay for their policies and election commitments without making more cuts in spending after the election – only 25% think it is likely.
40% of Liberal/National voters think it is unlikely.