05 September 2013, 050913, 2PP, election 2013, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. The Federal Election will be held next weekend on 7 September – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
The table below shows weekly figures through the election campaign.
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
5/8/13 |
13/8/13 |
19/8/13 |
26/8/13 |
2/9/13 |
5/9/13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Liberal National |
43.6% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
41% |
39% |
36% |
35% |
35% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
7% |
9% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
11% |
9% |
8% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
5/8/13 |
13/8/13 |
19/8/13 |
26/8/13 |
2/9/13 |
5/9/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
51% |
53% |
52% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
47% |
48% |
Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
05 September 2013, 050913, firmness of vote, Voting intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
5 Aug |
19 Aug |
26 Aug |
2 Sep |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
54% |
54% |
63% |
42% |
29% |
44% |
46% |
47% |
54% |
||
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
27% |
29% |
22% |
32% |
32% |
30% |
32% |
30% |
27% |
||
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
15% |
14% |
12% |
18% |
30% |
21% |
17% |
18% |
15% |
||
| Don’t know |
4% |
3% |
3% |
9% |
9% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
4% |
54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change.
Other party and independent voters (30%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.
05 September 2013, 050913, election 2013, election poll, opinion of Kevin Rudd
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party gone up or down?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total gone up |
16% |
33% |
6% |
9% |
|
| Total gone down |
40% |
12% |
65% |
42% |
|
| Gone up a lot |
7% |
16% |
2% |
6% |
|
| Gone up a little |
9% |
17% |
4% |
3% |
|
| Stayed the same |
38% |
53% |
26% |
47% |
|
| Gone down a little |
14% |
9% |
16% |
25% |
|
| Gone down a lot |
26% |
3% |
49% |
17% |
|
| Don’t know |
5% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
16% say their opinion of Kevin Rudd has gone up since the election was called and 40% say it has gone down. Views follow party preferences with 65% of Liberal/national voters saying their opinion of Kevin Rudd had gone down and 33% of Labor voters saying their opinion had gone up. Greens voters opinions were more likely to have gone down.