19 August 2013, 190813, 2PP, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,902 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 22/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
Last week 13/8/13 |
This week 19/8/13 |
| Liberal |
|
42% |
40% |
40% |
41% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
45% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
39% |
38% |
39% |
40% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
8% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 22/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
Last week 13/8/13 |
This week 19/8/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
51% |
51% |
50% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
50% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
19 August 2013, 190813, firmness of vote, Voting intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
Total 5 Aug |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
46% |
45% |
56% |
27% |
16% |
44% |
||
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
32% |
33% |
28% |
37% |
38% |
30% |
||
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
17% |
16% |
11% |
24% |
44% |
21% |
||
| Don’t know |
5% |
6% |
4% |
12% |
2% |
5% |
46% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 32% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 17% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a firming of voting intention since this question was asked two weeks ago.
Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (24%), other party and independent voters (44%) and aged 25-34 (25%).
19 August 2013, 190813, Divided, Labor Party Attributes, vision for the future
Q. Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which statements do you feel fit the Labor Party?
|
6 Jul 09 |
14 Mar 10 |
27 April 11 |
28 May 12 |
2 Apr 13 |
|
Total 19 Aug |
Change |
|
| Divided |
30% |
36% |
66% |
73% |
82% |
66% |
-16 |
|
| Will promise to do anything to win votes |
57% |
63% |
72% |
70% |
71% |
65% |
-6 |
|
| Looks after the interests of working people |
|
|
39% |
47% |
42% |
53% |
+11 |
|
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
44% |
48% |
61% |
58% |
63% |
51% |
-12 |
|
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
62% |
54% |
40% |
46% |
39% |
50% |
+11 |
|
| Have a vision for the future |
|
|
43% |
41% |
42% |
49% |
+7 |
|
| Moderate |
65% |
63% |
51% |
50% |
47% |
48% |
+1 |
|
| Have good policies |
|
|
|
|
|
46% |
na |
|
| Clear about what they stand for |
|
|
28% |
31% |
27% |
38% |
+11 |
|
| Has a good team of leaders |
60% |
52% |
34% |
29% |
24% |
36% |
+12 |
|
| Extreme |
25% |
26% |
38% |
31% |
38% |
34% |
-4 |
|
| Too close to the big corporate and financial interests |
|
|
46% |
36% |
39% |
31% |
-8 |
|
| Trustworthy |
|
|
|
|
|
30% |
na |
|
| Keeps its promises |
44% |
33% |
20% |
22% |
19% |
27% |
+8 |
The Labor Party’s main attributes were – divided (66%), will promise anything to win votes (65%), looks after the interests of working people (53%), out of touch with ordinary people (51%) and understands the problems facing Australia (50%).
Main changes since April were – divided (down 16% to 66%), has a good team of leaders (up 12% to 36%), out of touch with ordinary people (down 12% to 51%), looks after the interests of working people (up 11% to 53%), understands the problems facing Australia (up 11% to 50%) and clear about what they stand for (up 11% to 38%).
19 August 2013, 190813, attributes of the liberal party, Liberal Party Attributes
Q. And which statements do you feel fit the Liberal Party?
|
6 Jul 09 |
14 Mar 10 |
27 April 11 |
28 May 12 |
2 Apr 13 |
|
Total 19 Aug |
Change |
|
| Will promise to do anything to win votes |
67% |
72% |
65% |
63% |
67% |
65% |
-2 |
|
| Too close to the big corporate and financial interests |
|
|
60% |
58% |
59% |
60% |
+1 |
|
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
62% |
58% |
54% |
53% |
54% |
58% |
+4 |
|
| Have a vision for the future |
|
|
48% |
48% |
52% |
51% |
-1 |
|
| Moderate |
50% |
50% |
55% |
52% |
52% |
48% |
-4 |
|
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
44% |
43% |
51% |
52% |
50% |
48% |
-2 |
|
| Clear about what they stand for |
|
|
44% |
46% |
48% |
45% |
-3 |
|
| Extreme |
36% |
38% |
36% |
34% |
35% |
39% |
+4 |
|
| Have good policies |
|
|
|
|
|
38% |
na |
|
| Has a good team of leaders |
29% |
31% |
40% |
39% |
41% |
36% |
-5 |
|
| Looks after the interests of working people |
|
|
38% |
40% |
40% |
36% |
-4 |
|
| Keeps its promises |
28% |
23% |
33% |
34% |
34% |
32% |
-2 |
|
| Divided |
74% |
66% |
49% |
37% |
32% |
31% |
-1 |
|
| Trustworthy |
|
|
|
|
|
30% |
na |
The Liberal Party’s main attributes were – will promise anything to win votes (65%), too close to the big corporate and financial interest (60%), out of touch with ordinary people (58%) and have a vision for the future (51%).
The only substantial change since April was a drop in the figure for “has a good team of leaders” – down 5% to 36%.
19 August 2013, 190813, Coalition, Labor, Liberal, party attributes
|
Labor |
Liberal |
|
Difference |
|
| Divided |
66% |
31% |
+35 |
|
| Looks after the interests of working people |
53% |
36% |
+17 |
|
| Have good policies |
46% |
38% |
+8 |
|
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
50% |
48% |
+2 |
|
| Will promise to do anything to win votes |
65% |
65% |
– |
|
| Moderate |
48% |
48% |
– |
|
| Has a good team of leaders |
36% |
36% |
– |
|
| Trustworthy |
30% |
30% |
– |
|
| Have a vision for the future |
49% |
51% |
-2 |
|
| Extreme |
34% |
39% |
-5 |
|
| Keeps its promises |
27% |
32% |
-5 |
|
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
51% |
58% |
-7 |
|
| Clear about what they stand for |
38% |
45% |
-7 |
|
| Too close to the big corporate and financial interests |
31% |
60% |
-29 |
The Labor Party is viewed more favourably than the Liberal Party in terms of looking after the interest of working people, being too close to the big corporate and financial interests, having good policies and less out of touch with ordinary people.
The Liberal Party is seen more favourably in terms of being divided and clear about what they stand for.
19 August 2013, 190813, ABC, SBS, SMH, The Australian, the telegraph, trust in election media coverage, trust in media
Q. How much trust do you have in the way the following media have reported and commented on the election campaign so far?
|
Total a lot/sometrust |
|
A lot of trust |
Some trust |
Not much trust |
No trust at all |
Don’t know |
Don’t use |
|
| ABC TV |
58% |
22% |
36% |
10% |
7% |
8% |
17% |
|
| SBS TV |
52% |
16% |
36% |
9% |
5% |
10% |
24% |
|
| Commercial TV |
29% |
3% |
26% |
34% |
19% |
9% |
9% |
|
| ABC radio |
49% |
16% |
33% |
10% |
8% |
8% |
25% |
|
| Commercial radio |
25% |
4% |
21% |
27% |
19% |
10% |
18% |
|
| The Australian |
31% |
5% |
26% |
15% |
16% |
9% |
27% |
|
| The Telegraph (NSW) |
25% |
7% |
18% |
21% |
28% |
7% |
19% |
|
| Sydney Morning Herald (NSW) |
39% |
7% |
32% |
21% |
16% |
8% |
17% |
|
| The Age (Victoria) |
42% |
7% |
35% |
21% |
13% |
9% |
15% |
|
| Herald Sun (Victoria) |
30% |
5% |
25% |
25% |
26% |
8% |
12% |
|
| Courier Mail (Queensland) |
23% |
2% |
21% |
20% |
21% |
9% |
27% |
The most trusted media for coverage of the election campaign were ABC TV (58% trust), SBS TV (52%) and ABC radio (49%).
The most trusted newspapers were The Age (42%) and the Sydney Morning Herald (39%).
The least trusted media were the Courier Mail (23%), The Telegraph (25%) and commercial radio (25%).
19 August 2013, 190813, voting position
Q. Since the election campaign began, have you shifted your position on voting in any of the following ways?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
||
| Yes, I have changed my mind about who I will vote for |
6% |
6% |
5% |
10% |
|
| Yes, I have become more certain about who I will vote for |
13% |
17% |
8% |
22% |
|
| Yes, I have become less certain about who I will vote for |
11% |
9% |
7% |
18% |
|
| No, I haven’t changed my position at all about who I will vote for |
62% |
63% |
76% |
42% |
|
| Don’t know |
8% |
5% |
3% |
8% |
62% of respondents said they had not changed their voting position since the election campaign began. 6% said they had changed their vote, 13% had become more certain about their vote and 11% less certain. 17% of Labor voters said they had become more certain while 76% of Liberal/National voters had not changed their position at all.
51% of respondents aged 18-34 had not changed their voting position compared to 65% of those aged 35-54 and 72% of those aged 55+.