International relations under a Coalition Government
Q. Do you think under the Coalition Government, relations with the following countries will improve or get worse?
|
Improve |
Get worse |
Stay much the same |
Don’t know |
|
| United States |
24% |
12% |
48% |
16% |
| United Kingdom |
20% |
11% |
52% |
17% |
| New Zealand |
19% |
12% |
53% |
16% |
| Germany |
11% |
11% |
57% |
21% |
| Japan |
15% |
16% |
50% |
19% |
| China |
19% |
22% |
40% |
19% |
| South Africa |
9% |
12% |
56% |
23% |
| India |
13% |
19% |
47% |
21% |
| Indonesia |
11% |
49% |
22% |
18% |
For most countries, about half think that relations will stay much the same. The exceptions were China (19% improve, 22% get worse) and Indonesia (11% improve, 49% get worse).
Respondents were more likely to think that relations with the United States, New Zealand and United Kingdom would improve.
The main differences by party preference were for China (Labor 7% improve/38% get worse compared to Lib/Nat 33% improve/6% get worse) and Indonesia (Labor 4% improve/68% get worse compared to Lib/Nat 21% improve/31% get worse).
Party trust to handle issues
Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
|
Labor |
Liberal |
Greens |
Don’t know |
|
Difference 2 Sep 13 |
Difference 23 Jul 13 |
|
| Management of the economy |
32% |
47% |
4% |
18% |
-15 |
-15 |
|
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
42% |
32% |
8% |
19% |
+10 |
+9 |
|
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
37% |
34% |
8% |
21% |
+3 |
+1 |
|
| Protecting the environment |
19% |
21% |
43% |
17% |
+22 |
+18 |
|
| A fair industrial relations system |
41% |
31% |
7% |
21% |
+10 |
+11 |
|
| Political leadership |
31% |
40% |
6% |
23% |
-9 |
-7 |
|
| Addressing climate change |
24% |
23% |
32% |
21% |
+9 |
+7 |
|
| Controlling interest rates |
29% |
41% |
4% |
26% |
-12 |
-14 |
|
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
38% |
36% |
5% |
21% |
-2 |
-1 |
|
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
22% |
30% |
22% |
26% |
-8 |
-7 |
|
| Housing affordability |
30% |
32% |
7% |
31% |
-2 |
-2 |
|
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
32% |
37% |
6% |
26% |
-5 |
-2 |
|
| Security and the war on terrorism |
27% |
38% |
5% |
30% |
-11 |
-15 |
|
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
23% |
36% |
16% |
26% |
-13 |
-11 |
|
| Managing population growth |
24% |
33% |
9% |
34% |
-9 |
-13 |
Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.
The Labor Party is trusted more to handle a quality education for all children (+10) and a fair industrial relations system (+10).
The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle management of the economy (-15), treatment of asylum seekers (-13), controlling interest rates (-12) and security and the war on terrorism (-11).
There have been no major changes since this question was last asked in July.
Party attributes comparison – Labor vs Liberal
|
Labor |
Liberal |
|
Difference |
|
| Divided |
66% |
31% |
+35 |
|
| Looks after the interests of working people |
53% |
36% |
+17 |
|
| Have good policies |
46% |
38% |
+8 |
|
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
50% |
48% |
+2 |
|
| Will promise to do anything to win votes |
65% |
65% |
– |
|
| Moderate |
48% |
48% |
– |
|
| Has a good team of leaders |
36% |
36% |
– |
|
| Trustworthy |
30% |
30% |
– |
|
| Have a vision for the future |
49% |
51% |
-2 |
|
| Extreme |
34% |
39% |
-5 |
|
| Keeps its promises |
27% |
32% |
-5 |
|
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
51% |
58% |
-7 |
|
| Clear about what they stand for |
38% |
45% |
-7 |
|
| Too close to the big corporate and financial interests |
31% |
60% |
-29 |
The Labor Party is viewed more favourably than the Liberal Party in terms of looking after the interest of working people, being too close to the big corporate and financial interests, having good policies and less out of touch with ordinary people.
The Liberal Party is seen more favourably in terms of being divided and clear about what they stand for.
NBN
Q. The Government’s NBN (National Broadband Network) is a fast, high capacity fibre network to the home reaching 93% of Australian homes and businesses.
The Coalition has proposed a broadband plan in which the NBN would be replaced with broadband fibre to local “nodes” (or exchanges) and the existing telephone copper network would connect the rest of the way to homes. This would mean slower broadband speeds than the NBN but cost less to build. Do you support the Government’s or the Coalition’s broadband policy?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Support Government’s policy |
54% |
83% |
31% |
74% |
| Support the Coalition’s policy |
23% |
4% |
46% |
7% |
| Don’t know |
23% |
12% |
23% |
19% |
54% support the Government’s broadband policy and 23% support the Coalition’s policy.
For those aged 18-34, 61% support the Government’s policy and 15% support the Coalition’s. 51% of those aged 35-54 and 49% of those aged 55+ support the Government’s policy.
Will the Coalition deliver a surplus
Q. Do you think that if Tony Abbott and Coalition win the next election, they will deliver a budget surplus in their first year of Government?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Probably will deliver a surplus |
19% |
10% |
31% |
14% |
| Probably won’t deliver a surplus |
60% |
74% |
52% |
66% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
16% |
18% |
20% |
60% think that if Tony Abbott and Coalition win the next election, they probably won’t deliver a budget surplus in their first year of Government and 19% think they probably will.
A majority of all demographic and voter groups (including Liberal/National voters) think the Coalition will probably not deliver a surplus in their first year if elected.
Better or Worse off under Liberal Government
Q. Do you think you personally would be better off or worse off financially if Tony Abbott and the Liberals were in Government?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total better off |
30% |
4% |
64% |
6% |
| Total worse off |
32% |
69% |
3% |
52% |
| A lot better off |
10% |
1% |
22% |
– |
| A little better off |
20% |
3% |
42% |
6% |
| Make no difference |
24% |
18% |
27% |
21% |
| A little worse off |
10% |
19% |
2% |
11% |
| A lot worse off |
22% |
50% |
1% |
41% |
| No opinion |
14% |
9% |
6% |
21% |
30% of respondents think they would be personally better off financially if the Liberals were in Government and 32% think they would be financially worse off. 24% think it would make no difference to them financially.
Respondents aged 45-64 thought they would be more likely to be worse off (32% better/40% worse) while for those aged 65+, 47% thought they would be better off and 24% worse off.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,853 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 28/5/12 |
2 weeks ago 12/6/12 |
Last week 18/6/12 |
This week 25/6/12 |
| Liberal |
|
47% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
50% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
32% |
33% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Likelihood of Repealing the Carbon Tax
Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total likely |
44% |
28% |
64% |
42% |
| Total unlikely |
40% |
62% |
22% |
41% |
| Very likely |
17% |
15% |
24% |
14% |
| Quite likely |
27% |
13% |
40% |
28% |
| Not very likely |
24% |
29% |
18% |
24% |
| Not at all likely |
16% |
33% |
4% |
17% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
11% |
14% |
17% |
44% think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax if they won the next election and 40% think it is unlikely.
Views were broadly similar across demographic groups – although those aged 45-64 split 44% likely/44% unlikely.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 14 May 2019
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