2012 Outlook – Political Parties
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The Liberal Party | 35% | 18% | 36% | 24% | 8% | 28% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 12% |
| The Labor Party | 19% | 40% | 16% | 49% | 3% | 13% | 23% | 29% | 20% | 11% |
| The Greens | 22% | 29% | 17% | 37% | 2% | 15% | 32% | 20% | 17% | 13% |
Respondents expect that 2012 is likely to be a relatively good year for the Liberal Party (36% good/24% bad) and a bad year for the Labor Party (16%/49%) and the Greens (17%/37%).
Among their own voters, 67% expect the Liberals to have a good year, 38% expect Labor to have a good year and 67% expect the Greens to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all political parties – The Liberal Party has dropped form net +17% to net +12%, the Labor Party from -21% to -33% and the Greens from -7% to -20%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions about 2011, respondents expect the Liberal Party to have a better year (net +12% next year this year compared to net -3% this year), the Labor Party to have a similar year (-33% next year, -37% this year) and the Greens to have a much worse year (-20% next year, +4% this year).
Leaders in 12 Months
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 26% | 49% | 12% | 37% |
| No | 55% | 31% | 76% | 45% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 21% | 12% | 18% |
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 41% | 26% | 64% | 29% |
| No | 34% | 53% | 16% | 53% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 21% | 20% | 18% |
Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).
49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
5 Jul
2010 |
20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | |
| Total approve | 37% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 36% | 32% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 47% | 39% | 47% | 48% | 50% | 51% | 52% | 53% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 32% | 29% | 30% | 31% | 32% | 31% | 32% | 30% | 26% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 24% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 26% | 28% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 22% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 14% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has fallen again over the last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -21 over the last 4 weeks. This is the lowest rating recorded for Tony Abbott since he became opposition leader.
65% (down 8%) of Coalition voters approve and 22% (up 3%) disapprove.
By gender – men 36% approve/52% disapprove, women 29% approve/55% disapprove.
The Past Year – Political Parties
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
| Total good
(Dec 10) |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The Greens | 42% | 21% | 33% | 29% | 7% | 26% | 28% | 15% | 14% | 11% |
| The Liberal Party | 33% | 27% | 27% | 30% | 4% | 23% | 34% | 22% | 8% | 9% |
| The Labor Party | 21% | 47% | 16% | 53% | 2% | 14% | 22% | 33% | 21% | 8% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| The Greens | 33% | 29% | 41% | 16% | 23% | 45% | 70% | 3% |
| The Liberal Party | 27% | 30% | 13% | 45% | 45% | 16% | 17% | 45% |
| The Labor Party | 16% | 53% | 35% | 32% | 7% | 73% | 11% | 48% |
Respondents were more likely to think it has been a good year for the Greens (33%) than the Liberal Party (27%) or the Labor Party (16%).
Among their own voters 70% think it has been a good year for the Greens, 45% the Liberal Party and 35% the Labor Party.
Compared to last year’s results, all parties figures have declined – The Greens net +21% to +4%, Liberals from net +6% to -3% and Labor from net -26% to -37%.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 14 May 2019
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