15 April 2013, 150413, 2PP, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,897 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 18/3/13 |
2 weeks ago 2/4/13 |
Last week 8/4/13 |
This week 15/4/13 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
47% |
47% |
44% |
| National |
|
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
49% |
49% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
35% |
31% |
32% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
11% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
56% |
56% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
15 April 2013, 150413, Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 |
20 |
14 June |
12 Dec |
12 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
34% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
35% |
37% |
41% |
36% |
36% |
34% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
54% |
54% |
61% |
56% |
54% |
53% |
49% |
55% |
56% |
56% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
10% |
9% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
28% |
28% |
24% |
26% |
28% |
27% |
32% |
29% |
28% |
26% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
29% |
25% |
29% |
22% |
27% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
24% |
23% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
25% |
29% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
28% |
26% |
30% |
32% |
33% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
11% |
7% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
34% (down 2%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 56% (no change) disapprove – a 2-point change in net rating from -20 to -22 over the last 5 weeks.
74% of Labor voters approve (down 1%) and 18% disapprove (up 2%).
By gender – men 36% approve/57% disapprove, women 32% approve/57% disapprove. In net terms this represents an improvement with men from -27 to -21 and a decline with women (from -14 to -25).
15 April 2013, 150413, Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 |
5
|
20 Dec |
14 |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 |
10 Sep |
10 Dec |
14 |
11 Feb |
11 Mar |
15 |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
32% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
33% |
36% |
37% |
37% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
48% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
55% |
56% |
57% |
53% |
51% |
52% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
6% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
8% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
32% |
26% |
29% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
25% |
27% |
22% |
22% |
24% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
28% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
31% |
30% |
31% |
29% |
28% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
15% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
10% |
37% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 52% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -14 to -15 over the last 5 weeks.
72% (up 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (up 1%) disapprove.
By gender – men 41% approve/50% disapprove, women 33% approve/55% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -10 to -9 and with women from -18 to -22.
15 April 2013, 150413, Better PM, Julia Gillard, preferred PM, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 |
14 June |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
10 Dec |
14 |
11 Feb |
11 Mar |
15 |
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
41% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
40% |
43% |
42% |
39% |
39% |
37% |
81% |
6% |
62% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
36% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
37% |
34% |
33% |
37% |
39% |
39% |
6% |
78% |
6% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
24% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
22% |
24% |
13% |
16% |
32% |
37% (down 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott. This is the first time since August 2012 that Tony Abbott has been preferred over Julia Gillard.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/36% and women prefer Julia Gillard 38%/36%.
15 April 2013, 150413, superannuation tax
Q. Currently there is no tax on superannuation earnings after retirement. The Federal Government has proposed that earnings over $100,000 a year from superannuation assets will be taxed at 15%. It is expected that this will affect about 16,000 people who have more than $2 million in superannuation. Do you support or oppose this proposal?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total support |
40% |
58% |
29% |
47% |
| Total oppose |
46% |
34% |
61% |
39% |
| Strongly support |
15% |
25% |
9% |
19% |
| Support |
25% |
33% |
20% |
28% |
| Oppose |
21% |
20% |
26% |
22% |
| Strongly oppose |
25% |
14% |
35% |
17% |
| Don’t know |
13% |
9% |
10% |
13% |
40% support the Government’s proposal to tax superannuation earnings of more then $100,000 per year and 46% oppose.
Older respondents were more likely to support the proposal – for those aged 55+, 48% supported and 42% oppose while for those aged 35-54, 38% supported and 48% opposed.
By income, those earning more than $1,600pw were opposed (38% support/54% oppose) while those earning $600-1,000 pw were more likely to support (54% support/35% oppose).
15 April 2013, 150413, Julian Assange, public awareness
Q. The founder of Wikileaks, Julian Assange, faces extradition from the UK to Sweden for an investigation into sexual assault allegations. In Sweden he will be detained while the investigation continues, and he may be extradited to the United States to face charges relating to WikiLeaks’s release of US diplomatic cables. How much have you read or heard about Julian Assange?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| A lot |
16% |
18% |
13% |
31% |
| Some |
38% |
37% |
41% |
41% |
| A little |
35% |
35% |
37% |
26% |
| Nothing at all |
8% |
8% |
8% |
3% |
| Don’t know |
3% |
2% |
1% |
– |
54% said they had read heard a lot or some about Julian Assange. Only 8% had read or heard nothing at all.
Those most likely to have heard a lot of some about Julian Assange were men (60%), aged 55+ (59%) and Greens voters (72%).
15 April 2013, 150413, Julian Assange, Senate
Q. Julian Assange, has announced he will run for the Senate in Victoria in the next Federal election and will also run candidates in other states. How likely would Julian Assange be to make a positive contribution to Federal Parliament?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Very likely |
12% |
13% |
9% |
21% |
| Somewhat likely |
20% |
24% |
18% |
40% |
| Not very likely |
25% |
25% |
27% |
18% |
| Not at all likely |
25% |
25% |
31% |
15% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
13% |
16% |
7% |
32% think it is very or somewhat likely that Julian Assange would make a positive contribution to Federal Parliament.
Those most likely to think he would make a positive contribution were men (38%), aged 25-44 (42%) and Greens voters (61%).
58% of those who had read or heard a lot about Julian Assange, and 42% of those who had read or heard some thought it was likely he would make a positive contribution to Parliament.
15 April 2013, 150413, Coalition, labor government policy, National Broadband Network, NBN
Q. The Government’s NBN (National Broadband Network) is a fast, high capacity fibre network to the home reaching 93% of Australian homes and businesses.
The Coalition has proposed a broadband plan in which the NBN would be replaced with broadband fibre to local “nodes” (or exchanges) and the existing telephone copper network would connect the rest of the way to homes. This would mean slower broadband speeds than the NBN but cost less to build. Do you support the Government’s or the Coalition’s broadband policy?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Support Government’s policy |
54% |
83% |
31% |
74% |
| Support the Coalition’s policy |
23% |
4% |
46% |
7% |
| Don’t know |
23% |
12% |
23% |
19% |
54% support the Government’s broadband policy and 23% support the Coalition’s policy.
For those aged 18-34, 61% support the Government’s policy and 15% support the Coalition’s. 51% of those aged 35-54 and 49% of those aged 55+ support the Government’s policy.