Agreement with AUKUS implications
Q. Australia recently announced a trilateral partnership with the US and UK (known as AUKUS) which will deliver a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia.
The new security pact sees Australia cancel its previous deal with France’s Naval Group to build conventionally powered submarines.
How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the new AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine partnership?
| TOTAL: Agree | TOTAL: Disagree | Strongly agree | Somewhat agree | Neither agree nor disagree | Somewhat disagree | Strongly disagree | |
| Australia is right to build strong relations with the US and UK for its national defence | 62% | 8% | 33% | 29% | 30% | 5% | 3% |
| The AUKUS partnership strains Australia’s trade relations with China who see it as a threat | 55% | 8% | 20% | 35% | 37% | 5% | 3% |
| The AUKUS partnership may endanger future trade deals with France and the EU | 48% | 13% | 16% | 32% | 39% | 9% | 4% |
| The AUKUS partnership is in Australia’s best security and economic interests | 54% | 12% | 26% | 28% | 34% | 7% | 5% |
| Total | Gender | Age Group | Federal Voting Intention | |||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Labor | TOTAL: Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | ||
| Australia is right to build strong relations with the US and UK for its national defence | 62% | 68% | 56% | 49% | 58% | 77% | 59% | 78% | 44% | 58% |
| The AUKUS partnership strains Australia’s trade relations with China who see it as a threat | 55% | 61% | 49% | 49% | 54% | 61% | 57% | 57% | 65% | 55% |
| The AUKUS partnership may endanger future trade deals with France and the EU | 48% | 49% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 49% | 53% | 47% | 64% | 48% |
| The AUKUS partnership is in Australia’s best security and economic interests | 54% | 62% | 46% | 45% | 50% | 66% | 49% | 72% | 36% | 47% |
| Base (n) | 1,094 | 539 | 555 | 341 | 368 | 385 | 366 | 397 | 101 | 130 |
- While 62% think it is good for Australia to strengthen relations with the US and UK through the AUKUS partnership, 55% acknowledge it will strain the trading relationship with China and 48% see the risk to relationships with France and other EU countries.
- Just over half think the AUKUS partnership is in Australia’s best economic and security interests (54%).
- The partnership appeals to Coalition voters, who are most likely to think it is right to build strong relations with the UK and US (78%) and agree that the deal is in Australia’s best interests (72%).
National security and AUKUS partnership
Q. Thinking about the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine partnership, which is closer to your view?
| Total | Gender | Age Group | Federal Voting Intention | |||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Labor | TOTAL: Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | ||
| The AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine partnership will make Australia more secure | 45% | 47% | 44% | 34% | 40% | 60% | 39% | 62% | 30% | 38% |
| The AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine partnership will not affect Australia’s security | 36% | 34% | 37% | 48% | 36% | 24% | 39% | 27% | 40% | 33% |
| The AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine partnership will make Australia less secure | 19% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 24% | 15% | 22% | 12% | 30% | 29% |
| Base (n) | 1,094 | 539 | 555 | 341 | 368 | 385 | 366 | 397 | 101 | 130 |
- Less than half think the AUKUS partnership will make Australia more secure (45%). 36% think it will not affect our security and 19% think we are now at more risk.
- Those aged over 55 and Coalition voters are most likely to believe Australia is now more secure due to the AUKUS partnership.
Managing Australia’s relationship with China
Q. Overall, which is closest to your view about Australia’s relationship with China?
| Total | Gender | Age Group | Federal Voting Intention | |||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Labor | TOTAL: Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | ||
| Australia’s relationship with China is a positive opportunity to be realised | 10% | 13% | 7% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 8% |
| Australia’s relationship with China is a complex relationship to be managed | 66% | 63% | 69% | 65% | 64% | 70% | 66% | 66% | 66% | 61% |
| Australia’s relationship with China is a threat to be confronted | 24% | 24% | 23% | 21% | 25% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 21% | 31% |
| Base (n) | 1,094 | 539 | 555 | 341 | 368 | 385 | 366 | 397 | 101 | 130 |
- Over twice as many people think Australia’s relationship with China is a threat to be confronted than a positive opportunity to be realised (24% to 10%). However most believe it is a complex relationship to be managed.
- Younger people aged 18-34 are more likely to see the opportunity for a positive relationship with China than those aged over 55 (14% to 6%).
Importance of international relationships
Q. How important is it for Australia to have a close relationship with the following nations?
| Very import-ant | Quite import-ant | Not very import-ant | Don’t know | Very impor-tant
Mar 11 |
Very import-ant
Nov 13 |
Very import-ant
Oct 14 |
Very import-ant
Feb 15 |
Change | ||
| United States | 44% | 41% | 8% | 8% | 60% | 59% | 53% | 44% | – | |
| China | 39% | 44% | 6% | 10% | 48% | 54% | 44% | 41% | -2 | |
| United Kingdom | 39% | 43% | 9% | 10% | 56% | 48% | 48% | 38% | +1 | |
| Japan | 31% | 52% | 6% | 11% | 39% | 35% | 31% | 30% | +1 | |
| Canada | 24% | 45% | 18% | 13% | na | na | 26% | 22% | +2 | |
| India | 22% | 47% | 17% | 14% | 26% | 26% | 22% | 20% | +2 | |
| Indonesia | 21% | 40% | 27% | 12% | 31% | 40% | 32% | 22% | -1 | |
| Germany | 20% | 47% | 19% | 14% | 23% | 20% | 22% | 18% | +2 | |
| Saudi Arabia | 14% | 40% | 30% | 16% | na | na | 17% | 12% | +2 | |
| Russia | 13% | 38% | 33% | 16% | na | na | 16% | 11% | +2 |
44% of respondents think it is very important to have a close relationship with the United States and 39% think it is very important to have a close relationship with China and the United Kingdom. Relations with Russia (13%) and Saudi Arabia (14%) were thought to be the least important.
A close relationship with the United States is considered very important by 51% of Liberal/National voters, 48% of Labor voters and 29% of Greens voters.
Since this question was asked in February, there has been little change in importance of relations for all countries.
Trust in the Government’s handling of international relations
Q. How much trust do you have in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
Nov 2013 |
Jun 2014 |
Oct 2014 |
|
| Total a lot/some |
33% |
13% |
66% |
12% |
21% |
41% |
35% |
40% |
||
| Total little/no trust |
62% |
84% |
31% |
85% |
71% |
53% |
59% |
53% |
||
| A lot of trust |
12% |
2% |
28% |
– |
7% |
20% |
17% |
17% |
||
| Some trust |
21% |
11% |
38% |
12% |
14% |
21% |
18% |
23% |
||
| A little trust |
22% |
23% |
23% |
19% |
21% |
18% |
16% |
18% |
||
| No trust |
40% |
61% |
8% |
66% |
50% |
35% |
43% |
35% |
||
| Don’t know |
5% |
2% |
4% |
2% |
8% |
7% |
5% |
6% |
Overall, 33% (down 7% since October) have a lot or some trust in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations and 62% (up 9%) have a little or no trust. Only 12% (down 5%) have “a lot of trust” and 40% (up 5%) have no trust.
Labor (61%) and Greens (66%) voters were far more likely to have ‘no trust’. 28% Liberal/National voters have “a lot of trust”- down from 44% in October.
Trust in the Government’s handling of international relations
Q. How much trust do you have in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
Nov 2013 |
Jun 2014 |
Oct 2014 |
|
| Total a lot/some |
38% |
15% |
79% |
7% |
24% |
41% |
35% |
40% |
||
| Total little/no trust |
57% |
82% |
19% |
93% |
75% |
53% |
59% |
53% |
||
| A lot of trust |
15% |
2% |
38% |
– |
4% |
20% |
17% |
17% |
||
| Some trust |
23% |
13% |
41% |
7% |
20% |
21% |
18% |
23% |
||
| A little trust |
20% |
22% |
16% |
18% |
28% |
18% |
16% |
18% |
||
| No trust |
37% |
60% |
3% |
75% |
47% |
35% |
43% |
35% |
||
| Don’t know |
6% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
7% |
5% |
6% |
15% of people have “a lot of trust” in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations.
37% have no trust.
Labor (60%) and Greens (75%) voters were far more likely to have ‘no trust’. Liberal/National voters were far less likely (3%) to have no trust. 38% of Liberal/National voters have “a lot of trust”.
Since this question was asked in October, those saying they have a lot or some trust has decreased by 2% and those saying they have little/no trust increased by 4%.
Importance of international relationships
Q. How important is it for Australia to have a close relationship with the following nations?
|
Very |
Quite |
Not very |
Don’t know |
|
Very Mar 11 |
Very Nov 13 |
Very Jun 14 |
Change |
|
| United States |
53% |
37% |
5% |
4% |
60% |
59% |
57% |
-4 |
|
| United Kingdom |
48% |
41% |
7% |
4% |
56% |
48% |
48% |
– |
|
| China |
44% |
45% |
6% |
6% |
48% |
54% |
46% |
-2 |
|
| Indonesia |
32% |
46% |
15% |
7% |
31% |
40% |
35% |
-3 |
|
| Japan |
31% |
51% |
11% |
7% |
39% |
35% |
32% |
-1 |
|
| Canada |
26% |
47% |
20% |
7% |
na |
na |
28% |
-2 |
|
| India |
22% |
46% |
24% |
8% |
26% |
26% |
23% |
-1 |
|
| Germany |
22% |
43% |
27% |
8% |
23% |
20% |
21% |
+1 |
|
| Saudi Arabia |
17% |
38% |
35% |
10% |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
| Russia |
16% |
39% |
37% |
8% |
na |
na |
na |
na |
More than half the respondents think it is very important to have close relationships with the United States (53%). Relations with Russia (16%) and Saudi Arabia (17%) were thought to be the least important.
A close relationship with the United States is considered very important by 67% of Liberal/National voters, 50% of Labor voters and 41% of Greens voters.
Since this question was last asked in June, there has been a 4% decrease in the rating of the importance of relations with the United States.
Trust in the Government’s handling of international relations
Q. How much trust do you have in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
Nov 2013 |
Jun 2014 |
|
| Total a lot/some |
40% |
16% |
82% |
19% |
26% |
41% |
35% |
||
| Total little/no trust |
53% |
81% |
15% |
80% |
71% |
53% |
59% |
||
| A lot of trust |
17% |
1% |
44% |
2% |
8% |
20% |
17% |
||
| Some trust |
23% |
15% |
38% |
17% |
18% |
21% |
18% |
||
| A little trust |
18% |
24% |
13% |
10% |
20% |
18% |
16% |
||
| No trust |
35% |
57% |
2% |
70% |
51% |
35% |
43% |
||
| Don’t know |
6% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
2% |
7% |
5% |
17% of people have “a lot of trust” in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations.
35% have no trust.
Labor (57%) and Greens (70%) voters were far more likely to have ‘no trust’. Liberal/National voters were far less likely (2%) to have no trust. 44% of Liberal/National voters have “a lot of trust”.
Since this question was asked in June, those saying they have a lot or some trust has increased by 5% and those saying they have no trust decreased by 6% – a similar position to the poll in November last year.
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