Q. Last week the Chinese government imposed tariffs on Australian barley exports, costing farmers millions of dollars through lost revenue. To what extent do you agree or disagree about the following statements about international trade with China?

• Two-thirds (66%) of participants agree the Australian government needs to stand up to the Chinese Government and demand an open inquiry into the origins of Covid-19.
• More than half of participants agree the Chinese government imposed the tariffs in response to Australia leading calls for an independent inquiry into the origins of Covid-19 (57%) or the Australian government needs to do all it can to avoid a trade war with China (53%).
• Less than half of participants agree that Australia should impose tariffs on imports from China in retaliation (48%) or Australia should work towards an agreement with China to remove the tariffs on barley, whatever the conditions (47%).
• Coalition voters are most likely to agree that the government needs to stand up to the Chinese Government and demand an open inquiry into the origins of Covid-19 (76%); while Labor (60%) and Greens (59%) voters are less likely to agree.

Q. Given the choice between the United States of America and China, which country do you think it would be most beneficial for Australia strengthen our relationship with?

• Now 42% of participants believe it would be more beneficial to strength our relationship with the United States of America (up 4%), but a quarter say we should strengthen our relationship with neither country (24%, up 6%).
• Coalition voters are most likely to say we should strengthen our relationship with America (56%), while Greens voters would prefer to strengthen our relationship with neither country (37%).

Q. Do you think investment in mining and ports by Chinese companies is good or bad for the Australian economy?

38% think that investment in mining and ports by Chinese companies is good for the Australian economy and 36% think it is bad.

Liberal/National voters are more likely to think it is good for the economy (50%), while Labor and Greens voters are almost evenly divided on this issue.

Those most likely to think it is good for the economy were men (48%) and full-time workers (46%). Those most likely to think it is bad were aged 55+ (46%).

Q. Is it more important for Australia to have a close relationship with Japan or China?

62% think it is equally important to have close relationships with China and Japan. 15% think the relationship with China is more important and 5% think the relationship with Japan is more important.

21% of respondents aged under 35 and 20% of those with university education think the relationship with China is more important.

Q. How important is it for Australia to have a close relationship with the following nations?

More than half the respondents think it is very important to have close relationships with the New Zealand (54%) and the United States (55%) and just under half think it is very important to have a close relationship with the China (45%) and the United Kingdom (47%).

A close relationship with the United States is considered very important by 60% of Liberal/National voters, 60% of Labor voters and 43% of Greens voters.

Since this question was asked last November, there have been decreases in the rating of the importance of relations with New Zealand (-7%) and an increase in the rating of the importance of relations with Indonesia (+6%).

Q. Would you like to see Australia’s relationship with these countries get closer, stay the same or become less close?

29% favour closer relations with China, 26% with New Zealand, 25% with Indonesia and 24% with India.

Liberal/National voters are more likely to favour closer relationships with United States (25%).

Greens voters are more likely to favour closer relationships with Indonesia (34%), Japan (34%) and India (44%),

Since this question was asked last year, the percentages wanting a closer relationship with the China (-7%) and the New Zealand (-6%) have declined.

It’s one thing for the bond market vigilantes to try to skin the people of Spain. But, uh oh, Germany is another issue — and you should care about this little new twist because it will reverberate around the world.

I’m not a fan of Moody’s, largely because it sat around rating as AAA all those bad mortgages that ended up creating the Global Financial Crisis. But, the ratings agency still has sway so, shudder hard at this report:

The ratings firm Moody’s Investors Service late Monday dimmed its outlook on Germany, the euro zone’s dominant economic power and political force, further exposing the currency bloc’s fragility on a day that also saw markets drop around the world on fears about Europe.

Moody’s cited the huge potential cost of a euro breakup and, alternatively, the steep bill that would be paid to hold it together.

The warning to Germany followed a dramatic flight by investors from Spanish bonds Monday, leaving the euro zone’s fourth-largest economy at grave risk of needing a bailout and sparking a selloff on global markets.

Remember the recent story. China is slowing. The mining boom will not last forever. If you add to that Germany — Germany!!! — at risk…cover your eyes from the unfolding disaster.

Hate to say, “we told you so” because that won’t pay the bills. But, remember, when we pointed out that China was slowing down and it was downright foolish to let the American Disease infect the thinking in Oz? Well, the mining boom’s last act is coming faster than you think–and that’s a huge warning to take seriously.

It’s upon us:

AUSTRALIA’S budget surplus has evaporated and its mining investment boom has only two years to run, according to Deloitte Access Economics.

The forecast marks a watershed in assessments of Australia’s prospects, implying in the words of this morning’s Access publication: ”The strong bit of Australia’s two-speed economy won’t stay strong for more than another two years or so”.

The sad thing is that it doesn’t have to be a rocky road. If the mining barons, and their political patron– the man in The Empty Suit, leader of the Coalition– would stop resisting, blocking or whittling back serious taxes on the staggering riches a few people are pocketing from every Australian’s birthright, there would be plenty of money to invest in economic strategically smart efforts that would help the country blossom even when the mining boom evaporates.

And if people would stop wringing their hands over a non-existent deficit problem, we could even be plowing money into projects now.

The head aches.

— Jonathan Tasini
@jonathantasini