Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,928 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
2 weeks ago 21/1/13 |
Last week 29/01/13 |
This week 5/02/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
45% |
| National |
|
4% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
35% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Election date announcement
Q.The Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced the Federal Election will be held on September 14 this year. Do you approve or disapprove of the election date being announced nearly 8 months in advance?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
48% |
73% |
35% |
45% |
| Total disapprove |
34% |
13% |
50% |
35% |
| Strongly approve |
15% |
24% |
10% |
16% |
| Approve |
33% |
49% |
25% |
29% |
| Disapprove |
19% |
10% |
25% |
26% |
| Strongly disapprove |
15% |
3% |
25% |
9% |
| Don’t know |
19% |
14% |
16% |
20% |
48% approve of the announcement of the next Federal election date and 34% disapprove. 73% of Labor voters approve compared to 45% of Greens voters and 35% of Liberal/National voters. 50% of Liberal/National voters disapprove.
There were no major differences by demographics – although men were a little more likely to approve (53%) and women a little more likely to disapprove (38%).
Budget surplus
Q. Thinking about the Federal Government budget, how important do you believe it is for the budget to be in surplus…?
|
Total impor |
Total |
Very impor |
Quite Impor |
Not very impor |
Not |
Don’t know |
Total impor |
|
| …for the country as a whole |
69% |
26% |
28% |
41% |
22% |
4% |
5% |
68% |
| …for you personally |
54% |
39% |
20% |
34% |
29% |
10% |
7% |
46% |
A clear majority of respondents (69%) regard having a Federal Government budget surplus to be important for the country as a whole, whereas a somewhat smaller majority regard it to be important for them personally (54%).
39% of respondents believe having a Federal Government budget surplus was not important for them personally.
Since this question was last asked in October, those who think a budget surplus is important for them personally has increased from 46% to 54%.
Those most likely to think a budget surplus is important to them personally were Liberal/National voters (67%) and full-time workers (60%).
Approval of budget surplus
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s decision not to return the budget to surplus this financial year?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
42% |
64% |
29% |
55% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
12% |
57% |
25% |
| Strongly approve |
9% |
18% |
5% |
8% |
| Approve |
33% |
46% |
24% |
47% |
| Disapprove |
27% |
11% |
39% |
22% |
| Strongly disapprove |
10% |
1% |
18% |
3% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
14% |
20% |
42% approve of the Government’s decision not to return the budget to surplus this financial year and 37% disapprove.
Those most likely to approve were Labor voters (64%), Greens voters (55%), men (51%), aged 55+ (50%) and people on incomes under $600pw (50%).
57% of Liberal/National voters disapprove.
Will the Coalition deliver a surplus
Q. Do you think that if Tony Abbott and Coalition win the next election, they will deliver a budget surplus in their first year of Government?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Probably will deliver a surplus |
19% |
10% |
31% |
14% |
| Probably won’t deliver a surplus |
60% |
74% |
52% |
66% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
16% |
18% |
20% |
60% think that if Tony Abbott and Coalition win the next election, they probably won’t deliver a budget surplus in their first year of Government and 19% think they probably will.
A majority of all demographic and voter groups (including Liberal/National voters) think the Coalition will probably not deliver a surplus in their first year if elected.
Changes in cost of living
Q. Compared to two or three years ago is your household paying more or less for the following –
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Paying a lot more |
|||
|
Paying a lot more |
Paying a little more |
Paying about the same |
Paying a little less |
Paying a lot less |
Don’t know |
Own home outright |
Own home with mortgage |
Renting |
|
| Petrol |
50% |
33% |
11% |
2% |
1% |
4% |
44% |
49% |
55% |
| Fresh food – fruit, vegetables, meat |
36% |
43% |
16% |
4% |
* |
2% |
33% |
35% |
41% |
| Packaged food |
28% |
39% |
24% |
4% |
* |
4% |
26% |
27% |
33% |
| Electricity and gas |
70% |
22% |
4% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
69% |
73% |
71% |
| Housing – mortgage or rent |
24% |
22% |
29% |
10% |
3% |
12% |
10% |
21% |
40% |
| Insurance |
43% |
36% |
14% |
1% |
1% |
5% |
48% |
47% |
35% |
| Water |
47% |
32% |
14% |
1% |
1% |
6% |
48% |
54% |
38% |
| Clothing |
21% |
30% |
37% |
9% |
1% |
2% |
17% |
21% |
25% |
| Education |
24% |
20% |
27% |
3% |
3% |
23% |
15% |
28% |
26% |
| Medical, dental |
33% |
33% |
27% |
2% |
* |
3% |
33% |
35% |
34% |
Items which respondents said they were “paying a lot more” for were electricity and gas (70%), petrol (50%), water (47%) and insurance (43%).
Homeowners had similar responses to the total sample, but the main things renters were paying a lot more for were electricity and gas (71%), petrol (55%), fresh food (41%) and housing (40%).
Government regulation
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Governments making laws to regulate the following?
|
Total approve |
Total dis |
Strongly approve |
Approve |
Dis |
Strongly dis |
Don’t know |
Total approve 30 Apr 12 |
|
| Wearing seatbelts in cars |
97% |
2% |
77% |
20% |
2% |
* |
1% |
97% |
| Wearing bike helmets |
92% |
6% |
68% |
24% |
5% |
1% |
2% |
94% |
| Personal use of recreational drugs |
64% |
27% |
34% |
30% |
12% |
15% |
10% |
59% |
| Smoking in public places |
72% |
25% |
46% |
26% |
13% |
12% |
3% |
67% |
| Buying and consuming alcohol |
73% |
21% |
31% |
42% |
15% |
6% |
5% |
69% |
| Shopping hours |
56% |
35% |
17% |
39% |
25% |
10% |
9% |
56% |
| Cigarette packaging |
67% |
27% |
40% |
27% |
14% |
13% |
6% |
64% |
| Junk food advertising |
71% |
24% |
31% |
40% |
16% |
8% |
4% |
66% |
| Gambling, poker machines |
73% |
23% |
40% |
33% |
13% |
10% |
4% |
na |
| Films (i.e. censorship) |
61% |
31% |
20% |
41% |
21% |
10% |
8% |
62% |
| The internet |
53% |
38% |
18% |
35% |
22% |
16% |
8% |
49% |
| Making public statements which other people might find offensive |
41% |
44% |
13% |
28% |
26% |
18% |
15% |
na |
For each of the areas listed above more than half of respondents approved of Governments making laws to regulate the area – with the exception of “making public statements which other people might find offensive” (41% approve/44% disapprove).
The highest levels of approval were for wearing seatbelts in cars (97%) and wearing bike helmets (92%). The highest levels of disapproval were for making public statements which other people might find offensive (44%), the internet (38%) and shopping hours (35%).
Since this question was asked in April last year approval of regulation has increased for personal use of recreational drugs (+5%), smoking in public places (+5%) and junk food advertising (+5%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 14 May 2019
In this week's report:
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