Election Poll Wrap – Essential Wins Bragging Rights

Aug 23, 2010

All pollsters performed well in estimating the 2PP vote – all were within 0.3% to 1.3% of the current result. The Essential Report and Morgan Research were closest with 51/49. Newspoll’s 50.2/49.8 was next closest with Nielsen and Galaxy 1.3% off at 52/48.

However, a better way to compare the polls is to look at their first preferences for the major parties. Because the 2PP is based on an assumed distribution of preferences – not on the actual measurement of voting intentions.

Although all polls were within the margin of error, based on estimates for the 3 major party groupings, Essential Report was clearly the closest – their average difference being just 0.5%. Most polls over-estimated the Greens vote and Newspoll underestimated the Labor vote.

This is the first Federal election where public online polling has been used extensively, and the performance of the Essential Report poll is significant in that it has shown this methodology can provide reliable and valid measures of public opinion.

Actual current Newspoll Nielsen Galaxy Morgan Essential
Labor 38.5% 36.2% 39% 38% 38% 38%
Coalition 43.5% 43.2% 41.5% 41% 42% 43%
Greens 11.4% 13.9% 13% 14% 13% 12%
Others 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% 7% 7% 7%
Average difference (Labor, Coalition & Greens) 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.5
Actual current Newspoll Nielsen Galaxy Morgan Essential
Labor 2PP 50.7% 50.2% 52% 52 51% 51%
Difference 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.3



Approval of Barnaby Joyce, Opposition Shadow Finance Minister

Feb 15, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barnaby Joyce is doing as opposition shadow Finance Minister?

  %
Total approve 25%
Total disapprove 36%
Net rating -11%
Strongly approve 4%
Approve 21%
Disapprove 22%
Strongly disapprove 14%
Don’t know 39%

 One quarter (25%) of those surveyed approve of the job Barnaby Joyce is doing as opposition shadow Finance Minister, 36% disapprove and 39% don’t know.

 Results followed party lines – Coalition voters were more likely to approve of the job Joyce is doing (47%), while Labor voters were more likely to disapprove (53%).  

 56% of Green voters and 23% of Coalition voters disapprove of the job Joyce is doing as opposition shadow Finance Minister.

 Males were more likely to disapprove of the job Joyce is doing (43%), while females were more likely to indicate they don’t know (47%). Comments »

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