Early election
Q. Do you expect the Coalition Government will run its full term until later in 2016 when the next Federal election is due or will they call an early election?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote Other |
||
|
Will run full term |
48% |
34% |
72% |
35% |
43% |
|
|
Will call early election |
25% |
41% |
11% |
40% |
27% |
|
|
Don’t know |
27% |
25% |
17% |
25% |
30% |
48% think the Government will run its full term and 25% think the Government will call an early election.
A majority of 72% of Liberal/National voters think the Government will run its full term while Labor voters (41%) and Greens voters (40%) tend to think there will be an early election.
Most important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
|
Total 22 Apr 14 |
|
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Grn |
Vote other |
|
23 Jul 13 |
30 Jul 12 |
6 June 11 |
25 Jan 10 |
|
| Management of the economy |
54% |
43% |
75% |
22% |
44% |
45% |
64% |
61% |
63% |
||
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
27% |
35% |
18% |
38% |
20% |
25% |
26% |
26% |
23% |
||
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
50% |
54% |
43% |
62% |
52% |
42% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
||
| Protecting the environment |
13% |
12% |
7% |
42% |
14% |
12% |
11% |
15% |
16% |
||
| A fair industrial relations system |
12% |
17% |
11% |
8% |
12% |
10% |
12% |
8% |
na |
||
| Political leadership |
15% |
11% |
24% |
6% |
13% |
21% |
25% |
17% |
23% |
||
| Addressing climate change |
10% |
13% |
4% |
28% |
9% |
11% |
9% |
15% |
16% |
||
| Controlling interest rates |
9% |
9% |
11% |
2% |
7% |
13% |
9% |
13% |
15% |
||
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
37% |
39% |
37% |
18% |
37% |
39% |
41% |
32% |
33% |
||
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
4% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
12% |
||
| Housing affordability |
17% |
18% |
16% |
13% |
19% |
17% |
13% |
16% |
14% |
||
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
20% |
19% |
20% |
9% |
23% |
20% |
18% |
17% |
14% |
||
| Security and the war on terrorism |
5% |
3% |
8% |
3% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
8% |
9% |
||
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
8% |
5% |
5% |
32% |
9% |
14% |
10% |
5% |
na |
||
| Managing population growth |
9% |
6% |
10% |
8% |
16% |
9% |
8% |
12% |
na |
54% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 50% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 37% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 27% ensuring a quality education for all children.
Main changes since this question was asked last July – management of the economy up 9%, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system up 8%, political leadership down 6% and treatment of asylum seekers down 6%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,792 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 1/10/12 |
2 weeks ago 15/10/12 |
Last week 22/10/12 |
This week 29/10/12 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
16 Jul |
Total 13 Aug |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
37% |
36% |
78% |
4% |
78% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
38% |
38% |
8% |
77% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
26% |
26% |
13% |
18% |
18% |
36% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 38% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/33% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/35%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,884 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 30/4/12 |
2 weeks ago 14/5/12 |
Last week 21/5/12 |
This week 28/5/12 |
| Liberal |
46% |
47% |
46% |
47% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
50% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
30% |
33% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
7 |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
57% |
56% |
57% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Next Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
|
5 Sept 11 |
5 Dec 11 |
30 Jan 12 |
5 Mar 12 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Should run to 2013 |
40% |
47% |
48% |
46% |
48% |
87% |
21% |
74% |
| Should hold election now |
48% |
41% |
41% |
44% |
42% |
7% |
75% |
20% |
| Don’t know |
12% |
12% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
48% think the Labor Government should run its full term until the 2013 election and 42% think an election should be held now.
10% don’t know.
Opinions have shifted a little toward having an election now since this question was polled in March 2012.
Next Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
|
5 Sept 11 |
5 Dec 11 |
30 Jan 12 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Should run to 2013 |
40% |
47% |
48% |
46% |
90% |
17% |
80% |
| Should hold election now |
48% |
41% |
41% |
44% |
7% |
77% |
12% |
| Don’t know |
12% |
12% |
10% |
10% |
4% |
5% |
8% |
46% think the Labor Government should run its full term until the 2013 election and 44% think an election should be held now.
Opinions have shifted a little toward having an election now since this question was polled in January.
Election of Party Leaders
Q. Do you think party leaders should be elected mainly based on who voters favour or who the members of Parliament believe is the best person to lead their party?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The person the voters favour |
56% |
52% |
62% |
40% |
| The person members of Parliament believe best to lead the party |
30% |
35% |
28% |
49% |
| Don’t know |
14% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
A majority of 56% think that party leaders should be elected mainly based on who voters favour and 30% think that the leadership should go to the person the members of Parliament believe is to lead their party.
Liberal/National voters are more likely to think the leader should be the person the voters favour (62%) while Greens voters tended to favour the person members of Parliament believe best (49%).
Older voters (aged 55+) were a little more likely to leave the judgment to the Parliamentarians although still prefer the person the voters favour 53% to 39%.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.
Download this week's ReportEssential Report
Two Party Preferred:
In this week's report:
- Performance of Scott Morrison
- Performance of Anthony Albanese
- Preferred Prime Minister
- Federal government response to Covid-19
- State government response to Covid-19
- Better leadership during Covid-19 – PM vs state leader
- Attitudes towards Craig Kelly controversy and Scott Morrison’s leadership
- Views towards federal vs state government responsibility to manage Covid-19 hotel quarantine system
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