Repeal Carbon Tax

Oct 17, 2011

Q. If the carbon tax is passed into legislation and Tony Abbott wins the next election, which of the following do you think should happen:

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
The carbon tax should remain legislation to provide certainty for individuals and business 21% 42% 5% 43%
The carbon tax should remain legislation only if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution 33% 36% 29% 41%
Tony Abbott should call a further special election (called a ‘double dissolution’) to get the numbers in the Senate to repeal the carbon tax. 34% 10% 57% 12%
Don’t know 12% 12% 8% 4%

34% think that if the carbon tax is passed into legislation and Tony Abbott wins the next election, he should call a further election to get the numbers in the Senate to repeal the carbon tax. 21% think that carbon tax should remain legislation and 33% think it should remain only if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution.

42% of Labor voters and 43% of Greens voters think it should remain legislation, while 57% of Coalition voters think Tony Abbott should call another election to get the numbers to repeal it.

38% of men and 39% of those aged 55+ think Tony Abbott should call another election, while 38% of women and 40% of those aged under 35 think it should remain only if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution.

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Federal Election

Sep 5, 2011

Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Should run to 2013 40% 82% 11% 80%
Should hold election now 48% 9% 84% 13%
Don’t know 12% 9% 5% 7%

40% think that the Labor Government should run its full term and 48% think there should be an election held now.

Opinions closely follow voting preference – 82% of Labor voters and 80% of Greens voters think the Government should run its full term while 84% of Liberal/National voters want an election now.

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Voluntary Voting

Jul 11, 2011

Q. If voting at elections was voluntary (i.e. not compulsory) – how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total definitely/probably vote 82% 85% 89% 78%
Total definitely/probably not vote 14% 12% 9% 19%
Would definitely vote 59% 62% 65% 61%
Would probably vote 23% 23% 24% 17%
Probably wouldn’t vote 10% 8% 7% 18%
Definitely wouldn’t vote 4% 4% 2% 1%
Don’t know 4% 3% 1% 3%

82% said they would definitely or probably vote if voting was voluntary. 14% said they definitely or probably would not vote.

Coalition and Labor voters were more likely to vote and Greens voters somewhat less likely.

By age, 73% of those aged under 35 said they would vote compared to 82% of those aged 35-54 and 91% of those aged 55+.

The estimated vote excluding those who would probably or definitely not vote produces a first preference vote of 52% Liberal/National, 30% Labor, 11% Greens and 7% other. The two-party preferred estimate is 58% Liberal/National and 42% Labor (compared to the current estimate of 57%/43%) – suggesting that voluntary voting would only very slightly advantage the Coalition.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 20, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 2068

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 44% 44% 45%
National 3% 2% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 46% 46% 47%
Labor 38.0 34% 34% 34% 32%
Greens 11.8 12% 12% 12% 12%
Other/Independent 6.6 8% 8% 8% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 53% 53% 54% 55%
Labor 50.1% 47% 47% 46% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 14, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,921

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 43% 44% 44% 44%
National 3% 3% 2% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 47% 46% 46%
Labor 38.0 36% 34% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8 11% 12% 12% 12%
Other/Independent 6.6 7% 8% 8% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 52% 54% 53% 54%
Labor 50.1% 48% 46% 47% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Important election issues

Jun 6, 2011

Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?

One Two Three Total 24 Jan 11 11 Oct 10 25 Jan 10
Management of the economy 34% 18% 9% 61% 65% 62% 63%
Ensuring a quality education for all children 6% 10% 10% 26% 26% 32% 23%
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 15% 15% 19% 49% 49% 48% 48%
Protecting the environment 4% 6% 5% 15% 13% 12% 16%
A fair industrial relations system 2% 3% 3% 8% 10% 11% *
Political leadership 6% 6% 5% 17% 16% 16% 23%
Addressing climate change 6% 4% 5% 15% 10% 11% 16%
Controlling interest rates 3% 5% 5% 13% 21% 17% 15%
Australian jobs and protection of local industries 9% 11% 12% 32% 30% 30% 33%
Ensuring a quality water supply 1% 1% 3% 5% 6% 6% 12%
Housing affordability 4% 6% 6% 16% 16% 17% 14%
Ensuring a fair taxation system 3% 6% 8% 17% 18% 16% 14%
Security and the war on terrorism 2% 2% 4% 8% 5% 6% 9%
Treatment of asylum seekers 1% 2% 2% 5% 5% 5% *
Managing population growth 2% 4% 6% 12% 11% 10% *

*Not asked

61% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 49% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and 32% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.

Since January, there has been an increase in the importance of addressing climate change (from 10% to 15%) and a decrease in the importance of controlling interest rates (from 21% to 13%).

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Early Election over Carbon Tax

May 30, 2011

Q. Do you think the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax?

28 March 31 May Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 40% 42% 15% 71% 18%
No 44% 42% 68% 19% 66%
Don’t know 17% 16% 17% 11% 16%

42% think the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax and 42% disagree. This is similar to the views recorded in the previous poll in March and is strongly associated with voting intention.

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Federal politics – voting intention

May 16, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size =1,871

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 43% 44% 44% 43%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 47% 47% 47% 46%
Labor 38.0 35% 35% 35% 36%
Greens 11.8 11% 9% 10% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6 8% 9% 8% 7%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54% 54% 52%
Labor 50.1% 46% 46% 46% 48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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