Repeal Carbon Tax
Q. If the carbon tax is passed into legislation and Tony Abbott wins the next election, which of the following do you think should happen:
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| The carbon tax should remain legislation to provide certainty for individuals and business | 21% | 42% | 5% | 43% |
| The carbon tax should remain legislation only if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution | 33% | 36% | 29% | 41% |
| Tony Abbott should call a further special election (called a ‘double dissolution’) to get the numbers in the Senate to repeal the carbon tax. | 34% | 10% | 57% | 12% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 12% | 8% | 4% |
34% think that if the carbon tax is passed into legislation and Tony Abbott wins the next election, he should call a further election to get the numbers in the Senate to repeal the carbon tax. 21% think that carbon tax should remain legislation and 33% think it should remain only if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution.
42% of Labor voters and 43% of Greens voters think it should remain legislation, while 57% of Coalition voters think Tony Abbott should call another election to get the numbers to repeal it.
38% of men and 39% of those aged 55+ think Tony Abbott should call another election, while 38% of women and 40% of those aged under 35 think it should remain only if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution.
Federal Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should run to 2013 | 40% | 82% | 11% | 80% |
| Should hold election now | 48% | 9% | 84% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 9% | 5% | 7% |
40% think that the Labor Government should run its full term and 48% think there should be an election held now.
Opinions closely follow voting preference – 82% of Labor voters and 80% of Greens voters think the Government should run its full term while 84% of Liberal/National voters want an election now.
Voluntary Voting
Q. If voting at elections was voluntary (i.e. not compulsory) – how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total definitely/probably vote | 82% | 85% | 89% | 78% |
| Total definitely/probably not vote | 14% | 12% | 9% | 19% |
| Would definitely vote | 59% | 62% | 65% | 61% |
| Would probably vote | 23% | 23% | 24% | 17% |
| Probably wouldn’t vote | 10% | 8% | 7% | 18% |
| Definitely wouldn’t vote | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
82% said they would definitely or probably vote if voting was voluntary. 14% said they definitely or probably would not vote.
Coalition and Labor voters were more likely to vote and Greens voters somewhat less likely.
By age, 73% of those aged under 35 said they would vote compared to 82% of those aged 35-54 and 91% of those aged 55+.
The estimated vote excluding those who would probably or definitely not vote produces a first preference vote of 52% Liberal/National, 30% Labor, 11% Greens and 7% other. The two-party preferred estimate is 58% Liberal/National and 42% Labor (compared to the current estimate of 57%/43%) – suggesting that voluntary voting would only very slightly advantage the Coalition.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 2068
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 44% | 44% | 45% | |
| National | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 46% | 46% | 47% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 34% | 34% | 34% | 32% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 53% | 53% | 54% | 55% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 47% | 47% | 46% | 45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,921
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 43% | 44% | 44% | 44% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 47% | 46% | 46% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 36% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 52% | 54% | 53% | 54% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 48% | 46% | 47% | 46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
| One | Two | Three | Total | 24 Jan 11 | 11 Oct 10 | 25 Jan 10 | |
| Management of the economy | 34% | 18% | 9% | 61% | 65% | 62% | 63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 6% | 10% | 10% | 26% | 26% | 32% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 15% | 15% | 19% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 48% |
| Protecting the environment | 4% | 6% | 5% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 16% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 2% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 10% | 11% | * |
| Political leadership | 6% | 6% | 5% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 23% |
| Addressing climate change | 6% | 4% | 5% | 15% | 10% | 11% | 16% |
| Controlling interest rates | 3% | 5% | 5% | 13% | 21% | 17% | 15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 9% | 11% | 12% | 32% | 30% | 30% | 33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
| Housing affordability | 4% | 6% | 6% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 3% | 6% | 8% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 2% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 1% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 5% | * |
| Managing population growth | 2% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 11% | 10% | * |
*Not asked
61% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 49% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and 32% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Since January, there has been an increase in the importance of addressing climate change (from 10% to 15%) and a decrease in the importance of controlling interest rates (from 21% to 13%).
Early Election over Carbon Tax
Q. Do you think the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax?
| 28 March | 31 May | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 40% | 42% | 15% | 71% | 18% |
| No | 44% | 42% | 68% | 19% | 66% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 16% | 17% | 11% | 16% |
42% think the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax and 42% disagree. This is similar to the views recorded in the previous poll in March and is strongly associated with voting intention.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size =1,871
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 43% | 44% | 44% | 43% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 47% | 47% | 47% | 46% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 35% | 35% | 35% | 36% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 11% | 9% | 10% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 52% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 14 May 2019
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