Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 31, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,906

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 43% 42% 42%
National 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 45% 45%
Labor 38.0 38% 37% 37%
Greens 11.8 10% 11% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6 6% 7% 7%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 52% 51% 51%
Labor 50.1% 48% 49% 49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 24, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,896

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

Last week This week
Liberal 43% 42%
National 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 45%
Labor 38.0 38% 37%
Greens 11.8 10% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6 6% 7%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 52% 51%
Labor 50.1% 48% 49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 13, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to

sample size = 1,924

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 38% 42% 41% 42% 43%
National 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 41% 45% 44% 45% 46%
Labor 35% 39% 38% 38% 37%
Greens 14% 10% 11% 11% 10%
Other/Independent 10% 7% 7% 6% 7%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

 

This week
Total Lib/Nat 49% 51% 51% 51% 52%
Labor 51% 49% 49% 49% 48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. Comments »

Better State – campaigning in a climate of certainty

Nov 9, 2010

You would have to completely disregard the polls, history and any semblance of common sense to predict a Labor victory in the March 2011 NSW election.

Although there’s no such thing as a sure bet in Australian politics, a NSW Coalition government in 2011 is about as close as you’re likely to get. (The bookies have Labor at $6.25 to win next year. You won’t find those sort of odds in any 2011 NRL fixture.)

This climate of certainty makes a traditional approach to election time campaigning impossible.

Comments »

NSW – voting intention

Nov 5, 2010

 

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,953

First preference/leaning to  Total Election

Mar 07

Change
Liberal 47% 26.9%  
National 3% 10.1%  
Total Lib/Nat 50% 37.0% +13.0%
Labor 29% 39.0% -10.0%
Greens 11% 9.0% +2.0%
Other/Independent 10% 15.0% -5.0%

 

2PP Total Election

Mar 07

Change
Total Lib/Nat 58% 47.7% +10.3%
Labor 42% 52.3% -10.3%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 6-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. Comments »

Victoria – voting intention

Nov 5, 2010

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,465

First preference/leaning to  Total Election Nov 06  Change
Liberal 42% 34.4%  
National 2% 5.2%  
Total Lib/Nat 44% 39.6% +4.4%
Labor 38% 43.1% -5.1%
Greens 12% 10.0% +2.0%
Other/Independent 6% 7.3% -1.3%
2PP Total Election Nov 06  Change
Total Lib/Nat 50% 45.6% +4.4%
Labor 50% 54.4% 4.4%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 6-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. Comments »

Queensland – voting intention

Nov 5, 2010

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,138

First preference/leaning to  Total Election

Mar 09

Change
Liberal National 50% 41.6% +8.4%
Labor 29% 42.2% -13.2%
Greens 9% 8.4% +0.6%
Other/Independent 12% 7.8% +4.2%

 

2PP Total Election

Mar 07

Change
Total Lib/Nat 59% 49.1% +9.9%
Labor 41% 50.9% -9.9%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 6-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 1, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,844

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 36% 42% 42% 41% 41%
National 3% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 39% 44% 44% 44% 44%
Labor 40% 42% 40% 41% 41%
Greens 11% 8% 9% 8% 8%
Other/Independent 10% 7% 7% 7% 7%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

 

This week
Total Lib/Nat 47% 49% 50% 50% 50%
Labor 53% 51% 50% 50% 50%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. Comments »

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