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  • Feb, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,936

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 42% 42% 43%
    National 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6 45% 45% 46%
    Labor 38.0 37% 37% 38%
    Greens 11.8 11% 11% 10%
    Other/Independent 6.6 7% 7% 7%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 51% 51% 51%
    Labor 50.1% 49% 49% 49%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Jan, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,906

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 43% 42% 42%
    National 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 45% 45%
    Labor 38.0 38% 37% 37%
    Greens 11.8 10% 11% 11%
    Other/Independent 6.6 6% 7% 7%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 52% 51% 51%
    Labor 50.1% 48% 49% 49%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

    Comments »

  • Jan, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,896

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    Last week This week
    Liberal 43% 42%
    National 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 45%
    Labor 38.0 38% 37%
    Greens 11.8 10% 11%
    Other/Independent 6.6 6% 7%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 52% 51%
    Labor 50.1% 48% 49%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

    Comments »

  • Dec, 2010

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to

    sample size = 1,924

    First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 38% 42% 41% 42% 43%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 41% 45% 44% 45% 46%
    Labor 35% 39% 38% 38% 37%
    Greens 14% 10% 11% 11% 10%
    Other/Independent 10% 7% 7% 6% 7%

     

    2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

     

    This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49% 51% 51% 51% 52%
    Labor 51% 49% 49% 49% 48%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. Comments »

  • Nov, 2010

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    Better State – campaigning in a climate of certainty

    You would have to completely disregard the polls, history and any semblance of common sense to predict a Labor victory in the March 2011 NSW election.

    Although there’s no such thing as a sure bet in Australian politics, a NSW Coalition government in 2011 is about as close as you’re likely to get. (The bookies have Labor at $6.25 to win next year. You won’t find those sort of odds in any 2011 NRL fixture.)

    This climate of certainty makes a traditional approach to election time campaigning impossible.

    Comments »

  • Nov, 2010

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    NSW – voting intention

     

    Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,953

    First preference/leaning to  Total Election

    Mar 07

    Change
    Liberal 47% 26.9%  
    National 3% 10.1%  
    Total Lib/Nat 50% 37.0% +13.0%
    Labor 29% 39.0% -10.0%
    Greens 11% 9.0% +2.0%
    Other/Independent 10% 15.0% -5.0%

     

    2PP Total Election

    Mar 07

    Change
    Total Lib/Nat 58% 47.7% +10.3%
    Labor 42% 52.3% -10.3%

     NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 6-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. Comments »

  • Nov, 2010

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    Victoria – voting intention

    Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,465

    First preference/leaning to  Total Election Nov 06  Change
    Liberal 42% 34.4%  
    National 2% 5.2%  
    Total Lib/Nat 44% 39.6% +4.4%
    Labor 38% 43.1% -5.1%
    Greens 12% 10.0% +2.0%
    Other/Independent 6% 7.3% -1.3%
    2PP Total Election Nov 06  Change
    Total Lib/Nat 50% 45.6% +4.4%
    Labor 50% 54.4% 4.4%

     NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 6-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. Comments »

  • Nov, 2010

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    Queensland – voting intention

    Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,138

    First preference/leaning to  Total Election

    Mar 09

    Change
    Liberal National 50% 41.6% +8.4%
    Labor 29% 42.2% -13.2%
    Greens 9% 8.4% +0.6%
    Other/Independent 12% 7.8% +4.2%

     

    2PP Total Election

    Mar 07

    Change
    Total Lib/Nat 59% 49.1% +9.9%
    Labor 41% 50.9% -9.9%

     NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 6-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. Comments »

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