2PP, Election, Federal Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, National, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
1910 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 36% | 41% | 41% | 42% | 40% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 39% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 43% |
| Labor | 43% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 42% |
| Greens | 9% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% |
| Other/Independent | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 46% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Labor | 54% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
2PP, Election, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
2,073 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 35% | 41% | 40% | 41% | 42% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 38% | 45% | 43% | 44% | 45% |
| Labor | 45% | 40% | 39% | 39% | 40% |
| Greens | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% |
| Other/Independent | 8% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 6% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 44% | 50% | 49% | 50% | 50% |
| Labor | 56% | 50% | 51% | 50% | 50% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
Approval of Julia Gillard, Election, Julia Gillard, Labor, PM approval
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard
|
|||||||
| 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 26 Jul | 2 Aug | 9 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 45% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 37% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 12% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 36% | 32% | 33% | 33% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 21% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 19% |
45% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 37% disapprove. Since this question was asked last month, approval has decreased by 1% and disapproval decreased by 3%. 92% of Labor voters approve and only 1% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 10% approve and 75% disapprove.
By gender – men 42% approve/42% disapprove and women 46% approve/32% disapprove.
Approval of opposition leader, Election, Leader approval, Opposition leader, tony abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan | 22 Feb | 29 Mar | 3 May | 31 May | 5 Jul | 2 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep
|
|
| Total approve | 37% | 45% | 33% | 39% | 35% | 37% | 38% | 41% | 43% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 36% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 37% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% |
| Approve | 32% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 30% | 29% | 30% | 32% | 31% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 20% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 22% | 21% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 24% | 21% | 22% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 19% |
43% approve Tony Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader and 37% disapprove. Since this question was asked last month, approval has increased by 2% and disapproval decreased by 7%. 79% of Liberal/National voters approve and 7% disapprove. Among Labor voters, 18% approve and 67% disapprove.
By gender – men 48% approve/37% disapprove and women 37% approve/38% disapprove.
Better PM, Better Prime Minister, Election
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | 2 Aug 10 | 9 Aug 10 | 16 Aug 10 | 20 Sep 10 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 94% | 6% | 74% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 1% | 78% | 4% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 19% | 18% | 5% | 15% | 22% | 23 |
47% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – a similar margin to last month.
Julia Gillard is preferred 94% to 1% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 78% to 6% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 74% to 4%.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 44%/39% and women 50%/31%.
Q. How likely is it that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months?
| 6 Sep 10 | 20 Sep 10 | |
| Total likely | 70% | 59% |
| Total unlikely | 16% | 28% |
| Very likely | 27% | 23% |
| Quite likely | 43% | 36% |
| Not very likely | 13% | 22% |
| Not at all likely | 3% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 14% | 13% |
59% of respondents (down 11% from 2 weeks ago) think it likely that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months and 28% (up 12%) think it is unlikely. Labor voters are evenly divided (42% likely/42% unlikely) but 83% of Coalition voters think it is likely and only 11% unlikely.
Q. Do you think Australia should have another Federal election in the next 12 months?
| 6 Sep 10 | 20 Sep 10 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 52% | 43% | 17% | 75% | 11% |
| No | 33% | 43% | 71% | 14% | 75% |
| Don’t know | 15% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 14% |
43% (down 9%) think that Australia should have another election in the next 12 months and 43% (up 10%) disagree. Support for another election is strongest among Liberal/National voters (75%) but other voters oppose it.
Election, Independents, Independents in parliament
Q. Do you think there should be more or fewer independents in Federal Parliament?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | |
| Should be more | 29% | 29% | 21% | 58% | 65% |
| Should be fewer | 26% | 21% | 40% | 5% | 7% |
| About the right number | 23% | 32% | 19% | 19% | 14% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 19% | 20% | 17% | 14% |
Respondents are divided over whether there should be more or fewer independents in Parliament – 29% say more, 26% fewer and 23% think there is about the right number. 40% of Coalition voters think there should be fewer and a majority of Greens and other voters think there should be more.
Election, election reporting, media rating, politics in the media
Q. Overall, how would you rate the media (newspapers, TV, radio, internet) for their reporting of Federal politics – thinking about their coverage both before and after the election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens
|
|
| Total good | 32% | 35% | 37% | 20% |
| Total poor | 23% | 23% | 18% | 37% |
| Very good | 7% | 8% | 7% | 2% |
| Good | 25% | 27% | 30% | 18% |
| Average | 40% | 37% | 43% | 37% |
| Poor | 9% | 7% | 9% | 13% |
| Very poor | 14% | 16% | 9% | 24% |
| Don’t know | 6% | 5% | 2% | 6% |
32% think media reporting of Federal politics has been good, 23% poor and 40% average. Greens voters are most likely to think it has been poor (37%).
Q. Overall, do you think media reporting – both before and after the election – favoured the Labor Party, favoured the Liberal and National parties or gave fair coverage of all parties?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens
|
|
| Favoured the Labor Party | 23% | 12% | 39% | 9% |
| Favoured the Liberal and National parties | 17% | 27% | 8% | 29% |
| Gave fair coverage of all parties | 44% | 49% | 42% | 43% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 11% | 12% | 18% |
23% think media reporting favoured the Labor Party and 17% think it favoured the Liberal and National parties – while 44% think it gave fair coverage to all parties. 39% of Coalition voters thought the media favoured the Labor Party – compared to 27% of Labor voters thinking it favoured the Coalition.