Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 20, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

2,073 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week


Liberal 35% 41% 40% 41% 42%
National 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 38% 45% 43% 44% 45%
Labor 45% 40% 39% 39% 40%
Greens 9% 10% 11% 10% 9%
Other/Independent 8% 5% 7% 7% 6%


2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

Total Lib/Nat 44% 50% 49% 50% 50%
Labor 56% 50% 51% 50% 50%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Sep 20, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard


31 May 5 Jul 19 Jul 26 Jul 2 Aug 9 Aug 16 Aug 20 Sep
Total approve 41% 48% 52% 49% 46% 45% 46% 45%
Total disapprove 47% 27% 30% 33% 38% 40% 40% 37%
Strongly approve 7% 14% 11% 12% 10% 13% 13% 12%
Approve 34% 34% 41% 37% 36% 32% 33% 33%
Disapprove 25% 13% 17% 19% 23% 24% 24% 21%
Strongly disapprove 22% 14% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 16%
Don’t know 12% 26% 18% 17% 15% 15% 13% 19%

45% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 37% disapprove. Since this question was asked last month, approval has decreased by 1% and disapproval decreased by 3%. 92% of Labor voters approve and only 1% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 10% approve and 75% disapprove.

By gender – men 42% approve/42% disapprove and women 46% approve/32% disapprove.

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Approval of Tony Abbott

Sep 20, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan 22 Feb 29 Mar 3 May 31 May 5 Jul 2 Aug 16 Aug 20 Sep


Total approve 37% 45% 33% 39% 35% 37% 38% 41% 43%
Total disapprove 37% 36% 50% 43% 50% 47% 48% 44% 37%
Strongly approve 5% 12% 8% 5% 5% 8% 8% 9% 12%
Approve 32% 33% 25% 34% 30% 29% 30% 32% 31%
Disapprove 20% 20% 28% 24% 28% 23% 27% 22% 21%
Strongly disapprove 17% 16% 22% 19% 22% 24% 21% 22% 16%
Don’t know 26% 18% 16% 18% 16% 16% 14% 15% 19%

43% approve Tony Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader and 37% disapprove. Since this question was asked last month, approval has increased by 2% and disapproval decreased by 7%. 79% of Liberal/National voters approve and 7% disapprove. Among Labor voters, 18% approve and 67% disapprove.

By gender – men 48% approve/37% disapprove and women 37% approve/38% disapprove.

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Better Prime Minister

Sep 20, 2010

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 2 Aug 10 9 Aug 10 16 Aug 10 20 Sep 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 50% 51% 48% 45% 46% 47% 94% 6% 74% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 27% 26% 30% 33% 35% 35% 1% 78% 4% 30%
Don’t know 21% 23% 23% 22% 21% 19% 18% 5% 15% 22% 23

47% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – a similar margin to last month.

Julia Gillard is preferred 94% to 1% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 78% to 6% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 74% to 4%.

Men prefer Julia Gillard 44%/39% and women 50%/31%.

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New Election

Sep 20, 2010

Q. How likely is it that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months?

6 Sep 10 20 Sep 10
Total likely 70% 59%
Total unlikely 16% 28%
Very likely 27% 23%
Quite likely 43% 36%
Not very likely 13% 22%
Not at all likely 3% 6%
Don’t know 14% 13%

59% of respondents (down 11% from 2 weeks ago) think it likely that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months and 28% (up 12%) think it is unlikely. Labor voters are evenly divided (42% likely/42% unlikely) but 83% of Coalition voters think it is likely and only 11% unlikely.

Q. Do you think Australia should have another Federal election in the next 12 months?

6 Sep 10 20 Sep 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 52% 43% 17% 75% 11%
No 33% 43% 71% 14% 75%
Don’t know 15% 14% 12% 11% 14%

43% (down 9%) think that Australia should have another election in the next 12 months and 43% (up 10%) disagree. Support for another election is strongest among Liberal/National voters (75%) but other voters oppose it.

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Independents in Parliament

Sep 20, 2010

Q. Do you think there should be more or fewer independents in Federal Parliament?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Should be more 29% 29% 21% 58% 65%
Should be fewer 26% 21% 40% 5% 7%
About the right number 23% 32% 19% 19% 14%
Don’t know 22% 19% 20% 17% 14%

Respondents are divided over whether there should be more or fewer independents in Parliament – 29% say more, 26% fewer and 23% think there is about the right number. 40% of Coalition voters think there should be fewer and a majority of Greens and other voters think there should be more.

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Rating the Media

Sep 20, 2010

Q. Overall, how would you rate the media (newspapers, TV, radio, internet) for their reporting of Federal politics  – thinking about their coverage both before and after the election?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens


Total good 32% 35% 37% 20%
Total poor 23% 23% 18% 37%
Very good 7% 8% 7% 2%
Good 25% 27% 30% 18%
Average 40% 37% 43% 37%
Poor 9% 7% 9% 13%
Very poor 14% 16% 9% 24%
Don’t know 6% 5% 2% 6%

32% think media reporting of Federal politics has been good, 23% poor and 40% average. Greens voters are most likely to think it has been poor (37%).

Q. Overall, do you think media reporting – both before and after the election – favoured the Labor Party, favoured the Liberal and National parties or gave fair coverage of all parties?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens


Favoured the Labor Party 23% 12% 39% 9%
Favoured the Liberal and National parties 17% 27% 8% 29%
Gave fair coverage of all parties 44% 49% 42% 43%
Don’t know 17% 11% 12% 18%

23% think media reporting favoured the Labor Party and 17% think it favoured the Liberal and National parties – while 44% think it gave fair coverage to all parties. 39% of Coalition voters thought the media favoured the Labor Party – compared to 27% of Labor voters thinking it favoured the Coalition. 

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Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 13, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

2,062 sample size

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 35% 41% 41% 40% 41%
National 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 38% 44% 44% 43% 44%
Labor 45% 39% 38% 39% 39%
Greens 9% 10% 11% 11% 10%
Family First 2% 2% 2% 2% 1%
Other/Independent 6% 5% 5% 6% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 44% 49% 50% 49% 50%
Labor 56% 51% 50% 51% 50%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »

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