2PP, Election, Voting intention
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
| First preference
|
2PP | |
| Liberal | 40% | |
| National | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43% | 49% |
| Labor | 38% | 51% |
| Greens | 12% | |
| Family First | 2% | |
| Other/Independent | 5% |
NB. The 5% of respondents who selected ‘don’t know’ are not included in these results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »
economy, Election, Voting intention
Q. Which one of the following is the main reason why you will vote for that party?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Better at handling Australia’s economy | 22% | 14% | 41% | 2% |
| They are more likely to represent the interests of all Australians | 14% | 16% | 11% | 17% |
| Better at looking after the interests people like me | 13% | 17% | 10% | 16% |
| More trustworthy than the other parties | 9% | 7% | 5% | 22% |
| They are more capable of governing effectively than the other parties | 9% | 5% | 17% | 2% |
| They have a better leader | 8% | 16% | 4% | 2% |
| I always vote for the same party | 6% | 9% | 5% | 2% |
| They have better policies on things like education and health | 5% | 9% | 3% | 3% |
| They have better policies on things like environment and climate change | 3% | * | – | 27% |
| They have better policies on things like industrial relations and supporting Australian workers | 2% | 4% | * | – |
| They have better policies on things like national security and immigration | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| No reason | 7% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
Main reasons for voting Labor are looking after interests of people like me, better leader and representing the interests of all Australians. Main reasons for voting for the Coalition are handling the economy and more capable of governing. Greens voters rate policies on the environment and climate change and trustworthiness most important. Comments »
Q. How firm is your vote?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Very firm | 56% | 61% | 68% | 46% |
| Pretty firm but I might change my mind | 31% | 35% | 27% | 45% |
| Might consider another party and leader closer to the election | 9% | 4% | 5% | 9% |
| Don’t know | 4% | * | – | – |
The Greens vote is still relatively soft compared to Labor and Coalition votes. 68% of Coalition voters say their vote is “very firm” compared to 61% of Labor voters and 46% of Greens voters. Comments »
approval, approval of PM, Election, Gillard, Labor
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party gone up or down?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | 2 weeks ago | ||
| Total gone up | 21% | 42% | 8% | 22% | 19% | |
| Total gone down | 40% | 13% | 67% | 28% | 42% | |
| Gone up a lot | 6% | 16% | * | 3% | 6% | |
| Gone up a little | 15% | 26% | 8% | 19% | 13% | |
| Stayed the same | 35% | 44% | 23% | 48% | 32% | |
| Gone down a little | 18% | 12% | 26% | 15% | 20% | |
| Gone down a lot | 22% | 1% | 41% | 13% | 22% | |
| Don’t know | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 7% |
21% say their opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party has gone up during the election campaign and 40% say it has gone down.
This is a slight improvement on their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 19% up and 42% down.
By gender – men 20% up/43% down and women 23% up/36% down. Comments »
Abbott, approval, Election, Liberal
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party gone up or down?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | 2 weeks ago | ||
| Total gone up | 26% | 6% | 55% | 5% | 27% | |
| Total gone down | 37% | 61% | 9% | 57% | 27% | |
| Gone up a lot | 8% | 1% | 18% | – | 8% | |
| Gone up a little | 18% | 5% | 37% | 5% | 19% | |
| Stayed the same | 34% | 32% | 37% | 37% | 38% | |
| Gone down a little | 15% | 22% | 7% | 19% | 11% | |
| Gone down a lot | 22% | 39% | 2% | 38% | 16% | |
| Don’t know | 3% | 1% | * | 1% | 8% |
26% say their opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party has gone up during the election campaign and 37% say it has gone down.
This is a decline from their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 27% up and 27% down.
By gender – men 27% up/37% down and women 25% up/38% down. Comments »
Election, EMC, peter lewis, The Punch
First Published on The Punch 17/08/2010
The last week of elections is white line fever time. It’s the moment when history is written and the stakes are amplified and everything counts from the fliers, to the bunting, to the final ads, to the body language.
Just over 14 million Australians are registered to vote this Saturday – and if you believe the figure that 10 per cent don’t make up their mind until election day that means that the 1.4 million people who will decide this election are still in play.
2PP, Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, NSW, QLD, SA, Victoria, Voting intention, WA
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
First preference
| Total | NSW | Victoria | Queensland | SA | WA | |
| Liberal | 40% | 42% | 37% | 42% | 39% | 47% |
| National | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | – | 2% |
| Coalition | 43% | 46% | 40% | 46% | 40% | 49% |
| Labor | 40% | 38% | 43% | 36% | 39% | 37% |
| Greens | 10% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 10% |
| Others | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 5% |
2PP
| Total | NSW | Victoria | Queensland | SA | WA | |
| Liberal/National | 49% | 52% | 45% | 53% | 46% | 53% |
| Labor | 51% | 48% | 55% | 47% | 54% | 47% |
| Labor 2PP 2007 election | 52.7% | 53.7% | 54.3% | 50.4% | 52.4% | 46.7% |
| Shift in Labor vote since 2007 election | -1.7 | -5.7 | +0.7 | -3.4 | +1.6 | +0.3 |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
2PP, Election, Voting intention
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
2,160 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 36% | 37% | 37% | 39% | 41% |
| National | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 38% | 39% | 39% | 42% | 44% |
| Labor | 44% | 41% | 40% | 41% | 39% |
| Greens | 10% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 10% |
| Family First | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 45% | 45% | 46% | 48% | 49% |
| Labor | 55% | 55% | 54% | 52% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »