Main reason for vote

Aug 20, 2010

Q. Which one of the following is the main reason why you will vote for that party?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Better at handling Australia’s economy 22% 14% 41% 2%
They are more likely to represent the interests of all Australians 14% 16% 11% 17%
Better at looking after the interests people like me 13% 17% 10% 16%
More trustworthy than the other parties 9% 7% 5% 22%
They are more capable of governing effectively than the other parties 9% 5% 17% 2%
They have a better leader 8% 16% 4% 2%
I always vote for the same party 6% 9% 5% 2%
They have better policies on things like education and health 5% 9% 3% 3%
They have better policies on things like environment and climate change 3% * 27%
They have better policies on things like industrial relations and supporting Australian workers 2% 4% *
They have better policies on things like national security and immigration 1% 1% 3% 1%
No reason 7% 2% 2% 5%

Main reasons for voting Labor are looking after interests of people like me, better leader and representing the interests of all Australians. Main reasons for voting for the Coalition are handling the economy and more capable of governing. Greens voters rate policies on the environment and climate change and trustworthiness most important. Comments »

Firmness of vote

Aug 20, 2010

Q. How firm is your vote? 

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Very firm 56% 61% 68% 46%
Pretty firm but I might change my mind 31% 35% 27% 45%
Might consider another party and leader closer to the election 9% 4% 5% 9%
Don’t know 4% *

The Greens vote is still relatively soft compared to Labor and Coalition votes. 68% of Coalition voters say their vote is “very firm” compared to 61% of Labor voters and 46% of Greens voters. Comments »

Opinion of Julia Gillard

Aug 20, 2010

Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party gone up or down?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   2 weeks ago
Total gone up 21% 42% 8% 22%   19%
Total gone down 40% 13% 67% 28%   42%
Gone up a lot 6% 16% * 3%   6%
Gone up a little 15% 26% 8% 19%   13%
Stayed the same 35% 44% 23% 48%   32%
Gone down a little 18% 12% 26% 15%   20%
Gone down a lot 22% 1% 41% 13%   22%
Don’t know 4% 1% 1% 2%   7%

21% say their opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party has gone up during the election campaign and 40% say it has gone down.

This is a slight improvement on their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 19% up and 42% down.

By gender – men 20% up/43% down and women 23% up/36% down. Comments »

Opinion of Tony Abbott

Aug 20, 2010

Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party gone up or down?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   2 weeks ago
Total gone up 26% 6% 55% 5%   27%
Total gone down 37% 61% 9% 57%   27%
Gone up a lot 8% 1% 18%   8%
Gone up a little 18% 5% 37% 5%   19%
Stayed the same 34% 32% 37% 37%   38%
Gone down a little 15% 22% 7% 19%   11%
Gone down a lot 22% 39% 2% 38%   16%
Don’t know 3% 1% * 1%   8%

26% say their opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party has gone up during the election campaign and 37% say it has gone down.

This is a decline from their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 27% up and 27% down.

 By gender – men 27% up/37% down and women 25% up/38% down. Comments »

The Punch: Seven cautionary tales for people who want to win

Aug 17, 2010

First Published on The Punch 17/08/2010

The last week of elections is white line fever time. It’s the moment when history is written and the stakes are amplified and everything counts from the fliers, to the bunting, to the final ads, to the body language.

Just over 14 million Australians are registered to vote this Saturday – and if you believe the figure that 10 per cent don’t make up their mind until election day that means that the 1.4 million people who will decide this election are still in play.

Comments »

Special Essential Report – Federal Voting Intention by State

Aug 17, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

First preference

Total NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA
Liberal 40% 42% 37% 42% 39% 47%
National 3% 4% 3% 4% 2%
Coalition 43% 46% 40% 46% 40% 49%
Labor 40% 38% 43% 36% 39% 37%
Greens 10% 7% 11% 10% 12% 10%
Others 7% 8% 6% 8% 9% 5%

2PP

Total NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA
Liberal/National 49% 52% 45% 53% 46% 53%
Labor 51% 48% 55% 47% 54% 47%
Labor 2PP 2007 election 52.7% 53.7% 54.3% 50.4% 52.4% 46.7%
Shift in Labor vote since 2007 election -1.7 -5.7 +0.7 -3.4 +1.6 +0.3

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 16, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

2,160 sample size

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 36% 37% 37% 39% 41%
National 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 38% 39% 39% 42% 44%
Labor 44% 41% 40% 41% 39%
Greens 10% 13% 13% 10% 10%
Family First 2% 2% 3% 3% 2%
Other/Independent 6% 5% 5% 5% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 45% 45% 46% 48% 49%
Labor 55% 55% 54% 52% 51%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.   Comments »

Approval of Tony Abbott

Aug 16, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

  18 Jan 22 Feb 29 Mar 3 May 31 May 28 Jun 5 Jul 19 Jul 26 Jul 2 Aug 9 Aug 16 Aug
Total approve 37% 45% 33% 39% 35% 40% 37% 40% 35% 38% 40% 41%
Total disapprove 37% 36% 50% 43% 50% 39% 47% 44% 46% 48% 45% 44%
Strongly approve 5% 12% 8% 5% 5% 9% 8% 6% 6% 8% 8% 9%
Approve 32% 33% 25% 34% 30% 31% 29% 34% 29% 30% 32% 32%
Disapprove 20% 20% 28% 24% 28% 20% 23% 22% 22% 27% 25% 22%
Strongly disapprove 17% 16% 22% 19% 22% 19% 24% 22% 24% 21% 20% 22%
Don’t know 26% 18% 16% 18% 16% 20% 16% 16% 19% 14% 15%

15%

41% approve Tony Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader and 44% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has increased by 1% and disapproval decreased by 1%. 81% of Liberal/National voters approve and 10% disapprove. Among Labor voters, 15% approve and 75% disapprove.

By gender – men 44% approve/45% disapprove and women 38% approve/43% disapprove. Comments »

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