The Essential Report Archive Read the latest report
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Abbott, Debate, Election, Gillard
Interest in Watching Leaders Debate
Q. On Sunday night the leaders debate between Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott will be televised. Do you plan to watch the leaders’ debate?
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other or indep. Don’t know/ refused vote Definitely watch 14% 19% 16% 12% 3% 4% Probably watch 30% 35% 33% 31% 24% 13% Probably won’t watch 21% 20% 23% 29% 25% 13% Definitely won’t watch 26% 16% 25% 25% 44% 46% Don’t know 9% 11% 4% 3% 2% 25% 44% said they would definitely or probably watch the leaders’ debate. 54% of Labor voters were likely to watch, compared to 49% of Liberal/National voters and 43% of Greens voters. Of those who could not say who they would vote for, only 17% said they would definitely or probably watch the debate.
Older respondents were more likely to watch – 52% of those aged 55+ compared to 33% of those aged under 35. Comments »
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Interest in Federal Election
Q. How interested are you in this federal election?
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other or indep. Don’t know/ refused vote More than previous elections 17% 18% 23% 15% 16% 5% About the same 66% 76% 68% 67% 52% 42% Less than previous elections 11% 5% 9% 13% 32% 22% Don’t know 5% 1% * 4% – 31% 66% said that they had about the same interest in this election as previous elections – 17% had more interest and 11% less interest. Liberal voters were more interested (23% more) than Labor (18% more) and Greens voters (15% more).
Women (19%more/9% less) were somewhat more interested than men (16% more/13% less). Comments »
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#ausvotes, Election, Social Media
The Revolution will be Socialised
The election media landscape has changed forever, the revolution will not be televised.
Gone are the days of one-way election communications, the traditional print and television campaigns of the major parties may have become larger, slicker and more targeted, but they are still functions of the throw it at the wall and see what sticks mentality.
Survivor, Masterchef, Australian Idol started the participation craving, the web and social media gave it a voice. We all want to be heard, to judge and to vote someone off this island. We want to sit on our couches watching news channels or political commentary shows, not talking to our (un)loved ones, but tweeting out live commentary to our new family, the masses. #justsayin
The next day watercooler conversation is dead, colleagues, friends and networks have already torn every issue apart, judge, jury and executioner. And shouldn’t it have always been this way? Comments »
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Election, Family First, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Voting intention
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?
Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?
1,875 sample size
First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Liberal 35% 37% 36% 36% 37% National 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% Total Lib/Nat 38% 40% 39% 38% 39% Labor 45% 38% 42% 41% 41% Greens 8% 11% 11% 13% 13% Family First 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% Other/Independent 7% 8% 6% 6% 5% 2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Total Lib/Nat 44% 48% 46% 45% 45% Labor 56% 52% 54% 55% 55% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.
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asylum seekers, Australian jobs, climate change, economy, Education, Election, environment, Health, Housing, Interest rates, leadership, population, tax
Important Issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
First Second Third Total Total 10 May 10
Difference Management of the economy 38% 18% 7% 63% 62% +1% Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 16% 20% 19% 55% 50% +5% Australian jobs and protection of local industries 7% 8% 9% 24% 29% -5% Ensuring a quality education for all children 4% 11% 9% 24% 19% +5% Ensuring a fair taxation system 4% 6% 8% 18% 22% -4% Protecting the environment 5% 5% 5% 15% 13% +2% Political leadership 6% 3% 4% 13% 12% +1% Housing affordability 4% 4% 5% 13% 17% -4% Addressing climate change 4% 4% 4% 12% 12% – Controlling interest rates 3% 5% 4% 12% 16% -4% Managing population growth 1% 4% 7% 12% 14% -2% Treatment of asylum seekers 4% 3% 4% 11% * A fair industrial relations system 2% 4% 5% 11% 9% +2% Security and the war on terrorism 1% 2% 5% 8% 7% +1% Ensuring a quality water supply 1% 1% 4% 6% 7% -1% *Not asked in May 2010 poll
The most important election issues were management of the economy, the quality of the health system, jobs and local industry and a quality education for all children.
Since this issue was last polled in May, health and education have increased in importance (both +5%) and Australian jobs and protection of local industry declined 5%. Comments »
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2PP, Election, Gillard, Labor, Liberal, Polling, Prime Minister, Voting intention
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?
Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?
1,797 sample size
First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Liberal 34% 38% 37% 36% 36% National 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Total Lib/Nat 37% 40% 40% 39% 39% Labor 47% 37% 38% 42% 42% Greens 8% 12% 11% 9% 11% Family First 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% Other/Independent 6% 7% 8% 7% 6% 2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Total Lib/Nat 43% 48% 48% 46% 46% Labor 57% 52% 52% 54% 54% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »
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2PP, Abbott, Election, essential report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Polling, Prime Minister, rudd, Voting intention
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?
Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?
1,803sample size
First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Liberal 34% 39% 38% 37% 36% National 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% Total Lib/Nat 37% 41% 41% 40% 39% Labor 47% 39% 35% 38% 42% Greens 8% 9% 14% 11% 9% Family First 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% Other/Independent 6% 8% 8% 8% 7% 2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Total Lib/Nat 43% 49% 49% 48% 46% Labor 57% 51% 51% 52% 54% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »
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Election, Gillard, Labor, Polling
Changing Leaders – Likelihood of Voting Labor
Q. Does having Julia Gillard as Prime Minister make you more or less likely to vote for the Labor Party?
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Total more likely 26% 44% 11% 31% Total less likely 24% 11% 38% 22% Much more likely 10% 24% 1% 5% A bit more likely 16% 20% 10% 26% A bit less likely 8% 8% 6% 12% Much less likely 16% 3% 32% 10% Makes no difference 41% 40% 47% 40% Don’t know 8% 5% 3% 7% Sample = 818
In aggregate, the results indicate the change will have little impact on voting intentions. 41% say it makes no difference to their vote, 26% say they are more likely to vote Labor and 24% less likely. Among Labor voters 44% say they are more likely to vote Labor and 11% less likely.
Greens voters were overall a little more positive about voting Labor – 31% more likely and 22% less likely. Comments »