Need for a New Election

Sep 6, 2010

Q. Do you think Australia should have another Federal election in the next 12 months?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 52% 48% 65% 45%
No 33% 38% 25% 35%
Don’t know 15% 14% 10% 20%

52% think that Australia should have another election in the next 12 months and 33% disagree. Support for another election is strongest among Liberal/National voters (65%) although all voter types are more likely to support another election than oppose it.  Women (yes 53%/no 29%) are more likely to support another election than men (50%/38%). Comments »

New Election – Likely Winner

Sep 6, 2010

Q. And if Australia had another Federal election in the next 12 months, which party do you expect would win that election?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Labor 35% 76% 2% 48%
Liberal/National 39% 4% 83% 11%
Don’t know 25% 20% 15% 41%

Expectations about which party would win another election are divided – and closely follow party preferences. 39% think the Coalition would win and 35% think Labor would win. Comments »

New Election – Change in Vote

Sep 6, 2010

Q. If another election was held in the next 12 months would you vote for the same party or might you change your vote?

  Total Voted Labor Voted Lib/Nat Voted Greens
Vote for the same party 72% 76% 84% 62%
Might change my vote 16% 16% 11% 28%
Definitely change my vote 1% 1% 2% 1%
Don’t know 11% 7% 4% 8%

72% say they would vote for the same party if another election was held and 17% think they may change their vote. Liberal/National voters are least likely to change their vote (13%), while Greens voters are most likely (29%). 22% of voters aged under 35 said they may change their vote compared to only 13% of those aged 55+. Comments »

The Punch: This election was not the ranga revolution predicted

Aug 31, 2010

First Published on The Punch 31/08/2010

When the political history of 2010 is written, every element of the closest election in a generation will be rightly scrutinized. The winning side will get home by a hair’s breadth ­ but could it be hair that determines the result?
Because there is a minority group whose natural connection with their chief advocate did not translate into votes on August 22 ­ Australia’s rangas turned on Julia Gillard at the moment she needed their support most.

Exclusive hair-based research from the Punch shows that redheads turned their locks away from Gillard, being the least likely hair coloured group to support the ALP.

Essential Media Communications

Source: Essential Media Communications

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 31, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

2246 sample size

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week 
Liberal 37% 37% 41% 42% 41%
National 3% 2% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 40% 39% 44% 45% 44%
Labor 42% 40% 39% 38% 38%
Greens 9% 13% 10% 11% 11%
Family First 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Other/Independent 7% 5% 5% 4% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week 
Total Lib/Nat 47% 46% 49% 50% 50%
Labor 53% 54% 51% 50% 50%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* These results do not include the special ER pre-election poll. Comments »

When Voting Decision Made

Aug 31, 2010

Q. When did you make your decision about which party to vote for in last week’s Federal election?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
More than 4 weeks before the election 55% 60% 65% 38%
2-4 weeks before the election 15% 15% 16% 19%
In the last week before the election 9% 8% 9% 15%
The day before the election 3% 4% 1% 5%
The day of the election but before I went to vote 5% 4% 4% 9%
When I got to the polling booth 9% 6% 4% 12%
Don’t know 3% 2% 1% 2%

More than half the respondents had decided their vote more than 4 weeks before the election. 27% decided during the election campaign before polling day and 14% only decided on polling day (9% when they got to the polling booth). Greens voters were most likely to delay making their decision, with 21% saying they only decided on the day of the election. 25% of those who voted for independents or other parties only decided when they got to the polling booth.

Older voters decided earlier than younger voters – 67% of those aged 55+ decided more than 4 weeks before the election compared to 43% of under 35’s. 19% of under 35’s decided on the day of the election compared to only 6% of aged 55+. Comments »

Election Poll Wrap – Essential Wins Bragging Rights

Aug 23, 2010

All pollsters performed well in estimating the 2PP vote – all were within 0.3% to 1.3% of the current result. The Essential Report and Morgan Research were closest with 51/49. Newspoll’s 50.2/49.8 was next closest with Nielsen and Galaxy 1.3% off at 52/48.

However, a better way to compare the polls is to look at their first preferences for the major parties. Because the 2PP is based on an assumed distribution of preferences – not on the actual measurement of voting intentions.

Although all polls were within the margin of error, based on estimates for the 3 major party groupings, Essential Report was clearly the closest – their average difference being just 0.5%. Most polls over-estimated the Greens vote and Newspoll underestimated the Labor vote.

This is the first Federal election where public online polling has been used extensively, and the performance of the Essential Report poll is significant in that it has shown this methodology can provide reliable and valid measures of public opinion.

Actual current Newspoll Nielsen Galaxy Morgan Essential
Labor 38.5% 36.2% 39% 38% 38% 38%
Coalition 43.5% 43.2% 41.5% 41% 42% 43%
Greens 11.4% 13.9% 13% 14% 13% 12%
Others 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% 7% 7% 7%
Average difference (Labor, Coalition & Greens) 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.5
Actual current Newspoll Nielsen Galaxy Morgan Essential
Labor 2PP 50.7% 50.2% 52% 52 51% 51%
Difference 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.3



Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 20, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

  First preference

 

2PP
Liberal 40%  
National 3%  
Total Lib/Nat 43% 49%
Labor 38% 51%
Greens 12%  
Family First 2%  
Other/Independent 5%  

NB.  The 5% of respondents who selected ‘don’t know’ are not included in these results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »

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