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  • Oct, 2012

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,792 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    1/10/12

    2 weeks ago

    15/10/12

    Last week

    22/10/12

    This week

    29/10/12

    Liberal

    44%

    44%

    44%

    44%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    4%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    47%

    47%

    47%

    48%

    Labor

    38.0%

    36%

    36%

    36%

    36%

    Greens

    11.8%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    7%

    8%

    7%

    7%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    53%

    53%

    53%

    54%

    Labor

    50.1%

    47%

    47%

    47%

    46%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

  • Oct, 2012

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    Benefit of UN Security Council seat

    Q. Last week Australia won a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Permanent seats on the UN Security Council are held by major powers such as the US, Russia and China while non-permanent seats are held by other countries for a two year period. How much of a benefit, if any, do you think there is for Australia in having a seat on the UN Security Council?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total a lot/some benefit

    45%

    67%

    33%

    61%

    Total little/no benefit

    36%

    16%

    55%

    22%

    A lot of benefit

    14%

    27%

    7%

    17%

    Some benefit

    31%

    40%

    26%

    44%

    Little benefit

    20%

    13%

    29%

    16%

    No benefit

    16%

    3%

    26%

    6%

    Don’t know

    18%

    17%

    13%

    17%

    45% think there is a lot or some benefit in Australia having a seat on the UN Security Council and 36% think there is little or no benefit.

    67% of Labor voters and 61% of Greens voters think there is a lot/some benefit but 55% of Liberal/National voters think there is little/no benefit.

    Younger respondents were a little more likely to see a benefit for Australia – 50% of respondents aged 18-35 think there is a lot/some benefit compared to 40% of those aged 55+.

  • Oct, 2012

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    Exporting uranium to India

    Q. Do you support or oppose the proposal for Australia to export uranium to India?

      21 Nov 11

    Total

    29 Oct 12

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    30%

    28%

    28%

    36%

    12%

    Total oppose

    45%

    40%

    41%

    36%

    67%

    Strongly support

    7%

    6%

    5%

    8%

    2%

    Support

    23%

    22%

    23%

    28%

    10%

    Oppose

    24%

    22%

    27%

    19%

    32%

    Strongly oppose

    21%

    18%

    14%

    17%

    35%

    Don’t know

    25%

    32%

    30%

    29%

    22%

    28% support the proposal for Australia to export uranium to India and 40% oppose – 32% had no opinion. Both support and opposition have dropped a little since this question was asked last year – those who “don’t know” have increased from 25% to 32%.

    Labor and Greens voters were more likely to oppose while Liberal/National voters were split 36% support/36% oppose.

    All age groups were more likely to oppose the proposal although support was strongest with older people – 36% of those aged 55+ support compared to only 23% of those aged 18-34.

    Men split 39% support to 36% oppose, compared to women 17% support/43% oppose.

  • Oct, 2012

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    Importance of relationships with other countries

    Q. How important is it for Australia to have a close relationship with the following nations?

     

    Very important

    Quite important

    Not very important

    Don’t know

     

    Very Important 28 Mar 11  

    Very Important 14 Nov 11  

    Change

    United States

    55%

    36%

    5%

    3%

    60%

    55%

    New Zealand

    54%

    36%

    7%

    3%

    69%

    61%

    -7

    United Kingdom

    47%

    44%

    6%

    3%

    56%

    47%

    China

    45%

    44%

    6%

    4%

    48%

    48%

    -3

    Indonesia

    33%

    43%

    18%

    5%

    31%

    27%

    +6

    Japan

    31%

    52%

    12%

    5%

    39%

    32%

    -1

    India

    26%

    45%

    22%

    6%

    26%

    23%

    +3

    Germany

    20%

    44%

    29%

    7%

    23%

    18%

    +2

    South Africa

    14%

    35%

    43%

    8%

    16%

    12%

    +2

    More than half the respondents think it is very important to have close relationships with the New Zealand (54%) and the United States (55%) and just under half think it is very important to have a close relationship with the China (45%) and the United Kingdom (47%).

    A close relationship with the United States is considered very important by 60% of Liberal/National voters, 60% of Labor voters and 43% of Greens voters.

    Since this question was asked last November, there have been decreases in the rating of the importance of relations with New Zealand (-7%) and an increase in the rating of the importance of relations with Indonesia (+6%).

  • Oct, 2012

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    Change in relationships with other countries

    Q. Would you like to see Australia’s relationship with these countries get closer, stay the same or become less close?

     

    Get closer

    Stay the same

    Become less close

    Don’t know

     

    Get closer

    28 Mar 11

    Get closer

    14 Nov 11

    Change

    China

    29%

    50%

    9%

    12%

    32%

    35%

    -6

    New Zealand

    26%

    59%

    4%

    11%

    37%

    33%

    -7

    Indonesia

    25%

    47%

    16%

    12%

    21%

    23%

    +2

    India

    24%

    47%

    15%

    14%

    19%

    23%

    +1

    Japan

    22%

    59%

    7%

    13%

    26%

    24%

    -2

    United Kingdom

    21%

    62%

    6%

    10%

    25%

    19%

    +2

    United States

    21%

    59%

    10%

    10%

    24%

    18%

    +3

    Germany

    18%

    59%

    7%

    16%

    18%

    20%

    -2

    South Africa

    12%

    57%

    14%

    16%

    13%

    14%

    -2

    29% favour closer relations with China, 26% with New Zealand, 25% with Indonesia and 24% with India.

    Liberal/National voters are more likely to favour closer relationships with United States (25%).

    Greens voters are more likely to favour closer relationships with Indonesia (34%), Japan (34%) and India (44%),

    Since this question was asked last year, the percentages wanting a closer relationship with the China (-7%) and the New Zealand (-6%) have declined.

  • Oct, 2012

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    Rating of the economy

    Q. How would you rate the current state of Australia’s economy?

     

    28 May 12

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total good

    35%

    41%

    64%

    27%

    57%

    Total poor

    29%

    23%

    7%

    38%

    7%

    Very good

    6%

    6%

    9%

    3%

    8%

    Good

    29%

    35%

    55%

    24%

    49%

    Neither good nor poor

    33%

    33%

    26%

    33%

    34%

    Poor

    20%

    16%

    6%

    26%

    7%

    Very poor

    9%

    7%

    1%

    12%

    Don’t know

    2%

    4%

    3%

    2%

    1%

    41% described the economy as good or very good and 23% poor/very poor – 33% said it was neither. This is a substantial positive change from a net +6 in May to net +18.

    Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were aged 18-34 (46%).

    Those most likely to think the economy was poor/very poor were aged 65+ (33%) and respondents from Queensland (44%).

  • Oct, 2012

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    Approval of return to surplus

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s intention to return the budget to surplus this financial year, even if it means making more spending cuts?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total approve

    37%

    52%

    31%

    43%

    Total disapprove

    43%

    32%

    54%

    35%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    5%

    7%

    Approve

    32%

    44%

    26%

    36%

    Disapprove

    31%

    26%

    38%

    26%

    Strongly disapprove

    12%

    6%

    16%

    9%

    Don’t know

    19%

    17%

    16%

    23%

    37% approve of returning the budget to surplus even if it means spending cuts and 43% disapprove.

    Labor voters (52%) and Greens voters (43%) are more likely to approve but 54% Liberal/National voters disapprove. There were no substantial differences across demographics.

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