29 October 2012, 291012, 2PP, Abbott, ALP, Election, federal politics, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,792 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 1/10/12 |
2 weeks ago 15/10/12 |
Last week 22/10/12 |
This week 29/10/12 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
29 October 2012, 291012, benefit of UN seat, UN Security Council
Q. Last week Australia won a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Permanent seats on the UN Security Council are held by major powers such as the US, Russia and China while non-permanent seats are held by other countries for a two year period. How much of a benefit, if any, do you think there is for Australia in having a seat on the UN Security Council?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total a lot/some benefit |
45% |
67% |
33% |
61% |
| Total little/no benefit |
36% |
16% |
55% |
22% |
| A lot of benefit |
14% |
27% |
7% |
17% |
| Some benefit |
31% |
40% |
26% |
44% |
| Little benefit |
20% |
13% |
29% |
16% |
| No benefit |
16% |
3% |
26% |
6% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
17% |
45% think there is a lot or some benefit in Australia having a seat on the UN Security Council and 36% think there is little or no benefit.
67% of Labor voters and 61% of Greens voters think there is a lot/some benefit but 55% of Liberal/National voters think there is little/no benefit.
Younger respondents were a little more likely to see a benefit for Australia – 50% of respondents aged 18-35 think there is a lot/some benefit compared to 40% of those aged 55+.
29 October 2012, 291012, export of uranium, India, uranium export
Q. Do you support or oppose the proposal for Australia to export uranium to India?
| 21 Nov 11 |
Total 29 Oct 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total support |
30% |
28% |
28% |
36% |
12% |
| Total oppose |
45% |
40% |
41% |
36% |
67% |
| Strongly support |
7% |
6% |
5% |
8% |
2% |
| Support |
23% |
22% |
23% |
28% |
10% |
| Oppose |
24% |
22% |
27% |
19% |
32% |
| Strongly oppose |
21% |
18% |
14% |
17% |
35% |
| Don’t know |
25% |
32% |
30% |
29% |
22% |
28% support the proposal for Australia to export uranium to India and 40% oppose – 32% had no opinion. Both support and opposition have dropped a little since this question was asked last year – those who “don’t know” have increased from 25% to 32%.
Labor and Greens voters were more likely to oppose while Liberal/National voters were split 36% support/36% oppose.
All age groups were more likely to oppose the proposal although support was strongest with older people – 36% of those aged 55+ support compared to only 23% of those aged 18-34.
Men split 39% support to 36% oppose, compared to women 17% support/43% oppose.
29 October 2012, 291012, China, Germany, importance of international relationships, India, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, United Kingdom, USA
Q. How important is it for Australia to have a close relationship with the following nations?
|
|
Very important |
Quite important |
Not very important |
Don’t know |
|
Very Important 28 Mar 11 |
Very Important 14 Nov 11 |
Change |
| United States |
55% |
36% |
5% |
3% |
60% |
55% |
– |
|
| New Zealand |
54% |
36% |
7% |
3% |
69% |
61% |
-7 |
|
| United Kingdom |
47% |
44% |
6% |
3% |
56% |
47% |
– |
|
| China |
45% |
44% |
6% |
4% |
48% |
48% |
-3 |
|
| Indonesia |
33% |
43% |
18% |
5% |
31% |
27% |
+6 |
|
| Japan |
31% |
52% |
12% |
5% |
39% |
32% |
-1 |
|
| India |
26% |
45% |
22% |
6% |
26% |
23% |
+3 |
|
| Germany |
20% |
44% |
29% |
7% |
23% |
18% |
+2 |
|
| South Africa |
14% |
35% |
43% |
8% |
16% |
12% |
+2 |
More than half the respondents think it is very important to have close relationships with the New Zealand (54%) and the United States (55%) and just under half think it is very important to have a close relationship with the China (45%) and the United Kingdom (47%).
A close relationship with the United States is considered very important by 60% of Liberal/National voters, 60% of Labor voters and 43% of Greens voters.
Since this question was asked last November, there have been decreases in the rating of the importance of relations with New Zealand (-7%) and an increase in the rating of the importance of relations with Indonesia (+6%).
29 October 2012, 291012, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, International relationships, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, United Kingdom, United States
Q. Would you like to see Australia’s relationship with these countries get closer, stay the same or become less close?
|
|
Get closer |
Stay the same |
Become less close |
Don’t know |
|
Get closer 28 Mar 11 |
Get closer 14 Nov 11 |
Change |
| China |
29% |
50% |
9% |
12% |
|
32% |
35% |
-6 |
| New Zealand |
26% |
59% |
4% |
11% |
|
37% |
33% |
-7 |
| Indonesia |
25% |
47% |
16% |
12% |
|
21% |
23% |
+2 |
| India |
24% |
47% |
15% |
14% |
|
19% |
23% |
+1 |
| Japan |
22% |
59% |
7% |
13% |
|
26% |
24% |
-2 |
| United Kingdom |
21% |
62% |
6% |
10% |
|
25% |
19% |
+2 |
| United States |
21% |
59% |
10% |
10% |
|
24% |
18% |
+3 |
| Germany |
18% |
59% |
7% |
16% |
|
18% |
20% |
-2 |
| South Africa |
12% |
57% |
14% |
16% |
|
13% |
14% |
-2 |
29% favour closer relations with China, 26% with New Zealand, 25% with Indonesia and 24% with India.
Liberal/National voters are more likely to favour closer relationships with United States (25%).
Greens voters are more likely to favour closer relationships with Indonesia (34%), Japan (34%) and India (44%),
Since this question was asked last year, the percentages wanting a closer relationship with the China (-7%) and the New Zealand (-6%) have declined.
29 October 2012, 291012, Australian economy, current state
Q. How would you rate the current state of Australia’s economy?
|
28 May 12 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total good |
35% |
41% |
64% |
27% |
57% |
| Total poor |
29% |
23% |
7% |
38% |
7% |
| Very good |
6% |
6% |
9% |
3% |
8% |
| Good |
29% |
35% |
55% |
24% |
49% |
| Neither good nor poor |
33% |
33% |
26% |
33% |
34% |
| Poor |
20% |
16% |
6% |
26% |
7% |
| Very poor |
9% |
7% |
1% |
12% |
– |
| Don’t know |
2% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
1% |
41% described the economy as good or very good and 23% poor/very poor – 33% said it was neither. This is a substantial positive change from a net +6 in May to net +18.
Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were aged 18-34 (46%).
Those most likely to think the economy was poor/very poor were aged 65+ (33%) and respondents from Queensland (44%).
29 October 2012, 291012, economy, job losses, public sector cuts, spending cuts, surplus
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s intention to return the budget to surplus this financial year, even if it means making more spending cuts?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
52% |
31% |
43% |
| Total disapprove |
43% |
32% |
54% |
35% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
5% |
7% |
| Approve |
32% |
44% |
26% |
36% |
| Disapprove |
31% |
26% |
38% |
26% |
| Strongly disapprove |
12% |
6% |
16% |
9% |
| Don’t know |
19% |
17% |
16% |
23% |
37% approve of returning the budget to surplus even if it means spending cuts and 43% disapprove.
Labor voters (52%) and Greens voters (43%) are more likely to approve but 54% Liberal/National voters disapprove. There were no substantial differences across demographics.