26 August 2013, 260813, Labor Government, spending cuts
Q. If the Labor Party win Government, how likely do you think it is that they will be able to pay for their policies and election commitments without making more cuts in spending after the election?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Very likely |
7% |
13% |
2% |
8% |
|
| Somewhat likely |
20% |
42% |
3% |
28% |
|
| Somewhat unlikely |
24% |
27% |
18% |
38% |
|
| Very unlikely |
35% |
8% |
67% |
13% |
|
| Don’t know |
14% |
11% |
10% |
14% |
59% think it is unlikely that a Labor Government will be able to pay for their policies and election commitments without making more cuts in spending after the election – only 27% think it is likely.
35% of Labor voters think it is unlikely.
24 June 2013, 240613, age pension, Carbon Tax, dental health scheme, Labor decisions, Labor Government, NBN, Stimulus package, tax free threshold
Q. Thinking about the decisions the Labor Government has made over the last few years, do you think the following decisions were good or bad for Australia?
|
Total good |
Total bad |
Very good |
Good |
Neither good nor bad |
Bad |
Very bad |
Don’t know |
Sep 12 good |
Sep 12 bad |
|
| Expanding dental health services for people on low incomes |
73% |
8% |
28% |
45% |
15% |
4% |
4% |
5% |
77% |
5% |
| Increasing the tax free threshold from $6,000 to $18,200 |
72% |
8% |
34% |
38% |
15% |
5% |
3% |
5% |
75% |
4% |
| Increasing the age pension |
67% |
14% |
27% |
40% |
16% |
10% |
4% |
4% |
70% |
11% |
| Protecting large areas of Australia’s marine environment in a network of marine reserves |
66% |
10% |
27% |
39% |
19% |
6% |
4% |
5% |
67% |
8% |
| Introducing the National Disability Insurance Scheme |
63% |
9% |
26% |
37% |
20% |
5% |
4% |
8% |
58% |
5% |
| Increasing superannuation from 9% to 12% |
62% |
14% |
24% |
38% |
19% |
10% |
4% |
5% |
68% |
9% |
| Stimulus spending to tackle the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) |
50% |
26% |
21% |
29% |
19% |
17% |
9% |
5% |
54% |
22% |
| Introducing a tax on large profits of mining companies |
49% |
27% |
21% |
28% |
20% |
15% |
12% |
5% |
49% |
25% |
| Building the NBN (National Broadband Network) |
48% |
28% |
22% |
26% |
18% |
15% |
13% |
6% |
43% |
28% |
| Paid parental leave |
48% |
22% |
14% |
34% |
24% |
13% |
9% |
5% |
52% |
20% |
| Spending on new school buildings during the GFC |
47% |
26% |
12% |
35% |
20% |
15% |
11% |
6% |
53% |
22% |
| Implementing the recommendations of the Gonski report to increase education funding |
46% |
22% |
17% |
29% |
23% |
12% |
10% |
9% |
54% |
8% |
| Abolished WorkChoices |
42% |
27% |
23% |
19% |
22% |
17% |
10% |
10% |
42% |
27% |
| Introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change |
32% |
48% |
14% |
18% |
16% |
18% |
30% |
4% |
28% |
51% |
The two most popular decisions of the Labor Government are ‘expanding dental health services for people on low incomes’ (73% total good) and ‘increasing the tax free threshold from $6,000 to $18,000 (72% total good). The least popular decisions were ‘Implementing the recommendations of the Gonski report (46% total good), ‘Abolished WorkChoices’ (42% total good) and ‘introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change’ (32% total good).
The only issue which received a net negative response was ‘introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change’, where 48% of respondents believed it to be bad for Australia.
Since this question was previously asked last September, perceptions of most decisions have become a little more negative – with the exceptions of the “carbon tax” which shifted from 28% to 32% ‘good’, the ‘NDIS’ which shifted from 58% to 63% ‘good’ and building the NBN which shifted from 43% to 48% ‘good’.
The largest negative shifts were for the ‘Gonski recommendations’ (down 8% to 46%), increasing super (down 6% to 62%) and spending on schools during the GFC (down 6% to 47%).
06 May 2013, 060513, economic management, Labor Government
Q. How would you rate the government’s management of the Australian economy compared to how governments in other countries around the world have managed their economies?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total good |
39% |
71% |
14% |
62% |
| Total poor |
32% |
4% |
58% |
10% |
| Very good |
11% |
26% |
1% |
18% |
| Good |
28% |
45% |
13% |
44% |
| Neither good nor poor |
24% |
21% |
24% |
22% |
| Poor |
17% |
4% |
31% |
6% |
| Very poor |
15% |
* |
27% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
3% |
3% |
6% |
39% think that government’s management of the Australian economy compared to how governments in other countries around the world have managed their economies has been good/very good and 32% think it has been poor/very poor.
29 January 2013, 290113, date of 2013 election, date of election, Federal Election, Labor Government
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until later in 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
|
5 |
5 |
30 |
5 |
30 |
Total 29 |
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
|
| Should run to later in 2013 |
40% |
47% |
48% |
46% |
48% |
51% |
84% |
25% |
76% |
| Should hold election now |
48% |
41% |
41% |
44% |
42% |
35% |
4% |
66% |
12% |
| Don’t know |
12% |
12% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
14% |
12% |
8% |
12% |
51% think the Labor Government should run its full term until later in 2013 and 35% think an election should be held now. 14% don’t know.
Opinions have shifted away having an early election since this question was polled in April 2012.
03 September 2012, 030912, Labor Government, liberal government, low incomes, people with disabilities, Single parents, Small businesses, unemployed people
Q. Do you think the following groups of people would be better off under a Labor Government or a Liberal Government?
|
Better off under a Labor Government |
Better off under a Liberal Government |
Makes no difference |
Don’t know |
Difference (Labor minus Liberal) |
|
| Pensioners |
36% |
20% |
29% |
15% |
+16 |
| Unemployed people |
41% |
14% |
29% |
15% |
+27 |
| People with disabilities |
36% |
16% |
30% |
17% |
+20 |
| People and families on low incomes |
44% |
17% |
25% |
13% |
+27 |
| People and families on middle incomes |
26% |
33% |
28% |
13% |
-7 |
| People and families on high incomes |
11% |
54% |
21% |
13% |
-43 |
| Single parents |
39% |
16% |
29% |
16% |
+23 |
| Average working people |
32% |
27% |
28% |
13% |
+5 |
| Large corporations |
9% |
57% |
20% |
14% |
-48 |
| Banks and other financial institutions |
9% |
47% |
27% |
16% |
-38 |
| Small businesses |
21% |
37% |
26% |
16% |
-16 |
| Families with children at public school |
38% |
19% |
28% |
15% |
+19 |
| Families with children at private school |
14% |
44% |
27% |
16% |
-30 |
| Recent immigrants to Australia |
35% |
17% |
30% |
17% |
+18 |
| Farmers and other agricultural producers |
19% |
32% |
31% |
19% |
-13 |
Respondents were substantially more likely to think the following groups would be better off under a Labor Government – unemployed, low income families, single parents and people with disabilities.
They were substantially more likely to think the following groups would be better off under a Liberal Government – large corporations, high income families, banks and financial institutions, families with children at private schools.
Groups better off under by Respondent Category
| Respondent category (respondent or family member is in this category) | Groups better or worse off |
Better off under a Labor Government |
Better off under a Liberal Government |
Makes no difference |
Don’t know |
Difference (Labor minus Liberal) |
| Pensioners | Pensioners |
41% |
25% |
26% |
8% |
+16 |
| Unemployed | Unemployed people |
42% |
13% |
30% |
15% |
+29 |
| Have a disability | People with disabilities |
44% |
18% |
31% |
8% |
+26 |
| On low income | People and families on low incomes |
44% |
17% |
26% |
13% |
+27 |
| On middle income | People and families on middle incomes |
25% |
37% |
27% |
11% |
-12 |
| On high income | People and families on high incomes |
16% |
58% |
15% |
11% |
-42 |
| Single parent | Single parents |
38% |
19% |
27% |
16% |
+19 |
| Working | Average working people |
30% |
29% |
29% |
12% |
+1 |
| Work for a large corporation | Large corporations |
11% |
57% |
18% |
14% |
-46 |
| Work for a bank or other financial institution | Banks and other financial institutions |
23% |
45% |
16% |
16% |
-22 |
| Work for a small business | Small businesses |
24% |
37% |
25% |
14% |
-13 |
| Self-employed or own a small business | Small businesses |
24% |
40% |
20% |
17% |
-16 |
| Have children at public school | Families with children at public school |
39% |
17% |
27% |
16% |
+22 |
| Have children at private school | Families with children at private school |
21% |
42% |
22% |
15% |
-21 |
| Recent immigrants to Australia * | Recent immigrants to Australia |
63% |
9% |
20% |
9% |
+54 |
| Farmers and other agricultural producers | Farmers and other agricultural producers |
27% |
38% |
19% |
17% |
-11 |
* small sample – less than 100
This table shows groups affected mainly held views similar to the total sample. The main exceptions were that people with disabilities were more likely to think they would be better off under Labor, people working in banks/finance were more likely to think banks/financial institutions would be better off under Labor and people with children at primary school were more likely to think they would be better off under a Labor Government.
Drew Westen, elections, Julia Gillard, Labor Government, Politics, Ross Gittins, The Empty Suit
If you offer people two options to choose from–vote for a lite version of political ideology or the real thing–most people will vote for the real thing. It’s an emotional reaction–not entirely rationale. And, therein, my friends, lies a big problem faced by Labor.
I thought about Labor’s problem this morning after reading a fine column by Ross Gittins, entitled, “Prejudices rule when judging Labor”. I think Gittins misses, or under-emphasizes, two very important points. But, let’s start with what he gets right:
The conundrum is why so many people could be so dissatisfied when almost all the objective indicators show us travelling well: the economy growing at about its trend rate, low unemployment, low inflation, rising real wages, low government debt – even a low current account deficit.
That is correct. We got it good here (see: US unemployment above 8 percent, for example). Hang on to that thought for a moment…
And:
Similarly, only the one-eyed could believe an Abbott government would have much better policies. It’s likely to be less populist in government than it is opposition but, even so, Tony Abbott is no economic reformer.
Yup. The Empty Suit, leader of the Coalition, is vapid, entirely void of anything to say that is either true, new or useful about the future.
It gets even more bizarre. The Empty Suit, and his shills in business, are so craven, they resort to the Big Lie, as Gittins observes:
So, for instance, a favourite commercial tactic at present is to search for, and give false prominence to, all stories that portray our almost-dead union movement as a threatening monster about to engulf big business.
Boosting productivity equals making industrial relations law more anti-union. End of story. [emphasis added]
Ah, yes, the Big Labor fear campaign. Again, The Empty Suit is fully engaged with the American Disease–the Big Labor threat figures prominently in the US where Republicans use it at every turn, even though “Big Labor” is, representing 7 percent in the private sector and maybe 11 percent overall, more like “Big Labor”.
The Prime Minister also has a host of other issues, not the least of which is sexism in politics–there is always a higher barrier women have to leap over when it comes to the judgement of the chattering media and know-it-alls (see: Hillary Clinton–after all, though she may have actually believed in it, her vote for the Iraq War was, at least, partially driven by the conventional wisdom that, to run for president, she had to look “strong” i.e., appear to be willing to spill blood like a man…well, that didn’t work out too well but I digress).
But, Gittins sidesteps two really fundamental points. First, remember where we started? That given the choice between ideological “lite” and the real thing people opt for the real thing. So, for example, if you run around harping, stupidly, about the need to have a balanced budget, which Labor is doing, you sound just like The Empty Suit.
For the love of God, there is no friggin’ debt crisis or even a serious debt problem–as Gittins points out. The end result of sounding like The Empty Suit–government spends too much and needs to cut back–is that (a) it leads to bad policy and people losing their jobs because of an obsession with cutting public sector jobs and (b) voters actually start believing the nonsense.
And voters are inclined, then, to vote for the real thing–because The Empty Suit, and his chorus of ideological midgets, actually hate government.
Second, and to the bigger point–and a bit wonky. People vote not based on reason, but emotion. It is a huge–fatal–mistake to hang on to polls that say Labor’s actual policies are supported. That is a path to defeat.
May I suggest people read “The Political Brain” by Drew Westen. Here is the upshot:
In politics, when reason and emotion collide, emotion invariably wins. Elections are decided in the marketplace of emotions, a marketplace filled with values, images, analogies, moral sentiments, and moving oratory, in which logic plays only a supporting role. Westen shows, through a whistle-stop journey through the evolution of the passionate brain and a bravura tour through fifty years of American presidential and national elections, why campaigns succeed and fail. The evidence is overwhelming that three things determine how people vote, in this order: their feelings toward the parties and their principles, their feelings toward the candidates, and, if they haven’t decided by then, their feelings toward the candidates’ policy positions.
The political types, and the wonky types, might not like that. But, if you ignore what people emotionally feel, you are dead politically. And, it seems like this is what Labor is banking on to save its bacon–once people focus on how great are policies are (see: carbon pricing), all will be good.
Nope.
Twitter @jonathantasini
28 May 2012, 280512, Australia’s future, Labor Government, Labor Party Attributes, votes, working people
Q. Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which statements do you feel fit the Labor Party?
|
6 Jul 09 |
14 Mar 10
|
27 April 11
|
28 May 12 |
% change |
|
| Divided |
30% |
36% |
66% |
73% |
+7% |
| Will promise to do anything to win votes |
57% |
63% |
72% |
70% |
-2% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
44% |
48% |
61% |
58% |
-3% |
| Moderate |
65% |
63% |
51% |
50% |
-1% |
| Looks after the interests of working people |
|
|
39% |
47% |
+8% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
62% |
54% |
40% |
46% |
+6% |
| Have a vision for the future |
|
|
43% |
41% |
-2% |
| Too close to the big corporate and financial interests |
|
|
46% |
36% |
-10% |
| Extreme |
25% |
26% |
38% |
31% |
-7% |
| Clear about what they stand for |
|
|
28% |
31% |
+3% |
| Has a good team of leaders |
60% |
52% |
34% |
29% |
-5% |
| Keeps its promises |
44% |
33% |
20% |
22% |
+2% |
The Labor Party’s main attributes were – divided (73%), will promise anything to win votes (70%), out of touch with ordinary people (58%) and moderate (50%).
Main changes since last April were – too close to the big corporate and financial interests (down 10% to 36%), looks after the interests of working people (up 8% to 47%), divided (up 7% to 73%), extreme (down 7% to 31%) and understands the problems facing Australia (up 6% to 46%).
21 May 12, 210512, Interest rates, Labor Government
Q. As far as you know, are interest rates currently higher or lower than when the Labor Government was elected in 2007?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total higher |
20% |
17% |
24% |
14% |
| Total lower |
35% |
44% |
36% |
42% |
| A lot higher |
4% |
3% |
6% |
1% |
| A little higher |
16% |
14% |
18% |
13% |
| About the same |
18% |
17% |
22% |
12% |
| A little lower |
25% |
31% |
26% |
31% |
| A lot lower |
10% |
13% |
10% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
21% |
19% |
33% |
20% of respondents think interest rates are currently higher than when the Labor Government was elected in 2007 and 35% think they are lower. 18% think they are about the same.
Respondents most likely to think interest rates are lower were men (44%) and those aged 55+ (51%). 39% of respondents aged under 35 didn’t know.