Federal politics – voting intention

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,895 respondents

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Next election

Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until later in 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?

51% think the Labor Government should run its full term until later in 2013 and 35% think an election should be held now. 14% don’t know.

Opinions have shifted away having an early election since this question was polled in April 2012.

The Australian economy

Q. Thinking about the state of the world economy, how do you think the Australian economy has performed over the last few years compared to other countries?

70% think that Australia’s economy has performed better than other countries over the last few years, 16% say about the same and 12% think it has been worse. This represents a shift from net +51 to net +58 since this question was previously asked in May last year.

There were no substantial differences across demographic groups although those on lower incomes were a little more likely to believe it has performed worse – for those on income under $600pw, 56% think Australia’s economy has performed better and 20% worse.

Trust to deal with GFC

Q. If there was another Global Financial Crisis, which party would you trust most to deal with it?

If there was another GFC, 40% would trust the Liberal Party more to handle it and 26% would trust the Labor Party more. This represents a slight shift to the Labor Party from net -17% to net -14% since May last year.

The Liberal Party was rated higher than Labor with all demographic groups except for low income earners – 35% of those earning under $600pw would trust the Labor Party more and 29% the Liberal Party. Those most likely to trust the Liberal Party more were aged 55+ (52%), full-time workers (45%) and income over $1,600 pw (44%).

The economy

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?  

Confidence in the economic outlook has improved since August.  The percentage of respondents believing conditions will get better increased 7 points to 29%, while those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped 8 points to 37%.  This is the most positive outlook recorded since October 2010.

Labor voters are optimistic overall – 50% better/22% worse.  Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 51% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 21% better.

There was little difference across demographic groups except for older respondents – of those aged 55+, 27% think conditions will get better and 48% worse.

Pay rates for younger workers

Q. Do you think all workers aged 18-20 should receive the same rates of pay for doing the same work as those aged 21 and over or should 18-20 year-olds be paid lower rates?

52% support adult wages for 18-21 year olds and 37% think they should be paid lower rates.  There was greater support for adult rates across all demographic groups except those aged 65+ where 48% supported lower rates compared to 46% for adult rates.

Support among those aged 18-24 was only a little higher than the average at 59%.

Part-time workers (59%) were more supportive of adult rates that full-time workers (47%).

Climate change

Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

51% agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 40% believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is little changed since this question was previously asked in October last year.

By age groups, those aged under 35 split 62%/29% and those aged 55+ split 38%/57%. People on higher incomes were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those earning under $1,000pw split 46%/47% while those earning over $1,000pw split 56%/38%.

Carbon pricing

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

Support for carbon pricing has not changed significantly since the last time the question was polled in October 2012. Support is down a point to 37% and opposition up 2 points to 50%.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Labor voters (60%) and Greens voters (61%) were the most likely to support carbon pricing, whereas 75% of Coalition voters oppose it.

Younger respondents were more likely to support carbon pricing than older respondents – for those aged under 35, 44% support and 39% oppose while 60% of those aged 55+ oppose and 35% support.