050312, 2PP, 5 March 2012, ER, Federal Government, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Politics, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,891 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
45% |
46% |
47% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
48% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
33% |
32% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
55% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
45% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
050312, 5 March 2012, ALP, Labor Government, Labor leadership, Labor Party, Labor voters, Leadership Challenge, Polling, polls, voters
Q. Do you think the recent leadership challenge has been good or bad for the Labor Government?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total good |
13% |
30% |
7% |
16% |
| Total bad |
62% |
39% |
80% |
50% |
| Very good |
4% |
10% |
2% |
4 |
| Good |
9% |
20% |
5% |
12% |
| Neither good nor bad |
18% |
26% |
12% |
28% |
| Bad |
24% |
25% |
22% |
28% |
| Very bad |
38% |
14% |
58% |
22% |
| Don’t know |
6% |
4% |
2% |
6% |
62% think that the recent leadership challenge was bad for the Labor Party and only 13% think it was good.
Labor voters were split – 39% think it was bad, 30% good and 26% neither good nor bad.
050312, 5 March 2012, ALP, Federal Election, Julia Gillard, Labor, Labor Party, Labor voters, Polling, polls, re-election, voters
Q. Has the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party made you more or less likely to support the ALP at the next federal election.
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total more likely |
13% |
33% |
5% |
18% |
| Total less likely |
47% |
21% |
64% |
38% |
| Much more likely |
6% |
17% |
1% |
5% |
| A little more likely |
7% |
16% |
4% |
13% |
| A little less likely |
10% |
11% |
7% |
16% |
| Much less likely |
37% |
10% |
57% |
22% |
| Makes no difference |
34% |
42% |
30% |
43% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
3% |
1% |
– |
47% say that the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader has made them less likely to support the Labor Party and only 13% say it has made them more likely to support the Labor Party at the next election.
Among Labor voters, 33% say it has made them more likely and 21% less likely to support Labor.
050312, 5 March 2012, ALP, kevin rudd, Labor Party, Polling, polls, rudd
Q. What do you think Kevin Rudd should do now?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Stay in Parliament and challenge again |
29% |
30% |
28% |
29% |
| Stay in Parliament and not challenge again |
28% |
44% |
17% |
46% |
| Resign from Parliament |
30% |
17% |
44% |
20% |
| Don’t know |
13% |
8% |
10% |
5% |
Respondents were divided about what Kevin Rudd should do – 30% say he should resign from parliament, 29% think he should stay and challenge again and 28% think he should stay and not challenge again.
Among Labor voters, 44% think he should stay and not challenge, while 44% of Liberal/National voters think he should resign from Parliament. 46% of Greens voters think he should stay in Parliament and not challenge again.
050312, 2013 election, 5 March 2012, Election, Federal Election, Federal Government, Labor Government, Next Election, Polling, polls
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
|
5 Sept 11 |
5 Dec 11 |
30 Jan 12 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Should run to 2013 |
40% |
47% |
48% |
46% |
90% |
17% |
80% |
| Should hold election now |
48% |
41% |
41% |
44% |
7% |
77% |
12% |
| Don’t know |
12% |
12% |
10% |
10% |
4% |
5% |
8% |
46% think the Labor Government should run its full term until the 2013 election and 44% think an election should be held now.
Opinions have shifted a little toward having an election now since this question was polled in January.
050312, 5 March 2012, ALP, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor Party, Leadership Challenge, party leadership, Polling, polls, the media, tony abbott
Q. How would you rate the performance of the following during the Labor leadership challenge?
|
Total good |
Total poor |
Very good |
Good |
Average |
Poor |
Very poor |
Don’t know |
|
| Julia Gillard |
23% |
49% |
10% |
13% |
24% |
17% |
32% |
4% |
| Kevin Rudd |
33% |
35% |
12% |
21% |
27% |
16% |
19% |
4% |
| Labor Party Ministers |
10% |
52% |
2% |
8% |
30% |
25% |
27% |
8% |
| Tony Abbott |
25% |
40% |
9% |
16% |
27% |
18% |
22% |
8% |
| The media |
14% |
43% |
3% |
11% |
35% |
20% |
23% |
6% |
Apart from Kevin Rudd, the performance of all parties to the leadership challenge were rated poorly.
33% thought the performance of Kevin Rudd was good and 35% poor. For Julia Gillard the rating was 23% good and 49% poor. Labor Party Ministers were rated most negatively – 10% good and 52% poor.
However, Julia Gillard was rated a little better than Kevin Rudd by Labor voters – their rating of Julia Gillard was 50% good/15% poor compared to 49% good/22% poor for Kevin Rudd.
050312, 5 March 2012, elect, Election, elections, Parliament, party elections, party leader, party leaders, Polling, polls
Q. Do you think party leaders should be elected mainly based on who voters favour or who the members of Parliament believe is the best person to lead their party?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The person the voters favour |
56% |
52% |
62% |
40% |
| The person members of Parliament believe best to lead the party |
30% |
35% |
28% |
49% |
| Don’t know |
14% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
A majority of 56% think that party leaders should be elected mainly based on who voters favour and 30% think that the leadership should go to the person the members of Parliament believe is to lead their party.
Liberal/National voters are more likely to think the leader should be the person the voters favour (62%) while Greens voters tended to favour the person members of Parliament believe best (49%).
Older voters (aged 55+) were a little more likely to leave the judgment to the Parliamentarians although still prefer the person the voters favour 53% to 39%.
050312, 5 March 2012, Australian system, elect, Election, party elections, party leader, party leaders, Polling, polls, US system
Q. Which of the following do you think would be the best way to elect national party leaders?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The Australian system where the leader is elected by the Members of Parliament |
36% |
45% |
36% |
45% |
| The US system where registered voters in primaries elect the party’s candidate for President |
31% |
25% |
36% |
23% |
| The UK system where MPs, party members (and in Labour’s case, union members from affiliated unions) all get to vote for the party leader |
11% |
10% |
8% |
15% |
| Don’t know |
23% |
19% |
19% |
17% |
36% prefer the Australian system of electing the party leader – 31% prefer the US system and 11% the UK system.
Labor and Greens voters were more likely to prefer the Australian system (45%) and Liberal/National voters the US system (36%).
45% of people aged 55+ and 45% of those on income of $1,600+ pw favoured the Australian system.