Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,842 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 25/3/14 |
2 weeks ago 8/4/14 |
Last week 15/4/14 |
This week 22/4/14 |
| Liberal |
|
41% |
40% |
40% |
39% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
45.6% |
44% |
42% |
42% |
41% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
37% |
38% |
37% |
37% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
11% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
4% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
7% |
8% |
7% |
6% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 25/3/14 |
2 weeks ago 8/4/14 |
Last week 15/4/14 |
This week 22/4/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
51% |
49% |
50% |
49% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
49% |
51% |
50% |
51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,933 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
Last week 21/1/14 |
This week 28/1/14 |
| Liberal |
|
40% |
40% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
||
| Total Lib/Nat |
45.6% |
43% |
42% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
37% |
36% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
9% |
9% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
4% |
4% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
7% |
9% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
Last week 21/1/14 |
This week 28/1/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
51% |
50% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
49% |
50% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,799respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 7/11/12 |
2 weeks ago 19/11/12 |
Last week 26/11/12 |
This week 3/12/12 |
| Liberal |
|
43% |
43% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
46% |
46% |
47% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
36% |
36% |
37% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,832 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 29/10/12 |
2 weeks ago 12/11/12 |
Last week 19/11/12 |
This week |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
42% |
43% |
44% |
| National |
|
4% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
45% |
46% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
37% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
52% |
53% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,888 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 24/9/12 |
2 weeks ago 8/10/12 |
Last week 15/10/12 |
This week 22/10/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
35% |
37% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
7% |
8% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,924 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 17/9/12 |
2 weeks ago 1/10/12 |
Last week 8/10/12 |
This week 15/10/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
36% |
37% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
7% |
7% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 2,089 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 3/09/2012
|
2 weeks ago 17/09/2012 |
Last week 24/09/2012 |
This week |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
45% |
45% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
34% |
35% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 3/09/2012 |
2 weeks ago 17/09/2012 |
Last week 24/09/2012 |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
55% |
55% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
45% |
45% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1992 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 27/08/12 |
2 weeks ago 10/9/2012 |
Last week 17/09/2012 |
This week |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
44% |
45% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
47% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
34% |
34% |
35% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 27/08/12 |
2 weeks ago 10/9/2012 |
This week 17/09/2012 |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
55% |
55% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
45% |
45% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.
Essential Report
In this week's report:
- Federal voting intention
- Leader attributes: Scott Morrison
- Federal government response to Covid-19
- State government response to Covid-19
- Uptake of a Covid-19 vaccine
- Reason those who would get vaccinated against Covid-19 have not been vaccinated yet
- Speed of NSW lockdown
- Time for Covid-19 milestones to occur for NSW
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