03 December 2012, 031212, 2PP, first preference vote, Greens, Labor, Liberal
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,799respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 7/11/12 |
2 weeks ago 19/11/12 |
Last week 26/11/12 |
This week 3/12/12 |
| Liberal |
|
43% |
43% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
46% |
46% |
47% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
36% |
36% |
37% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
03 December 2012, 031212, awareness of AWU issue, Julia Gillard
Q. How much have you read or heard about the Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s involvement with the AWU when she was working as a lawyer 20 years ago?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| A lot |
31% |
37% |
35% |
12% |
| Some |
29% |
30% |
33% |
30% |
| A little |
25% |
23% |
22% |
35% |
| Nothing |
12% |
7% |
8% |
22% |
| Don’t know |
3% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
60% said they had read or heard a lot or some about the Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s involvement with the AWU when she was working as a lawyer 20 years ago, 25% said they had read/heard a little and 12% had read/heard nothing.
Those most likely to have read/heard a lot/some were men (65%), aged 55+ (78%) and Liberal/National voters (67%).
Those most likely to have read/heard a little/nothing were women (42%), aged 18-34 (53%) and Greens voters (57%).
03 December 2012, 031212, AWU, AWU issue, Julia Gillard
Q. How would you rate the way each of the following have handled this issue concerning Julia Gillard and the AWU? (based on respondents who have read or heard about the issue)
|
Total good |
Total poor |
|
Very good |
Good |
Neither good nor poor |
Poor |
Very poor |
Don’t know |
|
| Julia Gillard |
39% |
35% |
13% |
26% |
19% |
11% |
24% |
6% |
|
| The Opposition |
20% |
49% |
5% |
15% |
23% |
21% |
28% |
7% |
|
| The media |
20% |
37% |
5% |
15% |
36% |
20% |
17% |
7% |
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Heard a lot |
Heard some |
Heard a little |
|
| Julia Gillard – Good
– Poor |
39% 35% |
71% 7% |
17% 60% |
58% 15% |
39% 49% |
43% 36% |
38% 21% |
| Opposition -Good
– Poor |
20% 49% |
4% 79% |
41% 21% |
5% 75% |
26% 58% |
25% 47% |
11% 45% |
| Media – Good
– Poor |
20% 37% |
7% 49% |
35% 24% |
13% 46% |
25% 43% |
24% 34% |
14% 36% |
39% think Julia Gillard’s handling of the issue has been good and 35% think it has been poor. Among Labor voters, 71% think it has been good and 7% poor and among those who have read/heard a lot about the issue, 39% think it has been good and 49% poor.
20% think the Opposition’s handling of the issue has been good and 49% think it has been poor. Among Liberal/National voters, 41% think it has been good and 21% poor and among those who have read/heard a lot about the issue, 26% think it has been good and 58% poor.
20% think the media’s handling of the issue has been good and 37% think it has been poor. Among those who have read/heard a lot about the issue, 25% think it has been good and 43% poor.
03 December 2012, 031212, Australian Workers Union, AWU, AWU issue, Julia Gillard
Q. How has the issue concerning Julia Gillard and the AWU affected your views on Julia Gillard as Prime Minister?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Heard a lot |
Heard some |
Heard a little |
|
| Total more negative |
38% |
9% |
64% |
20% |
51% |
37% |
23% |
| Total more positive/no difference |
59% |
89% |
35% |
77% |
49% |
62% |
71% |
| A lot more negative |
21% |
1% |
41% |
5% |
37% |
18% |
6% |
| Somewhat more negative |
17% |
8% |
23% |
15% |
15% |
19% |
17% |
| Made little or no difference |
48% |
67% |
31% |
57% |
30% |
54% |
66% |
| Somewhat more positive |
6% |
11% |
2% |
8% |
9% |
5% |
3% |
| A lot more positive |
5% |
11% |
2% |
12% |
10% |
3% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
4% |
2% |
1% |
4% |
– |
1% |
5% |
38% say the issue has made them feel more negative about Julia Gillard as prime Minister while 59% say it has made little or no difference or made them feel more positive.
Among Labor voters 89% say it has made them feel more positive or made little or no difference.
64% of Liberal/National voters say it has made them more negative while 35% say it has made little/no difference or made them more positive.
Those most likely to feel more negative about Julia Gillard were aged 55+ (45%)
03 December 2012, 031212, asylum seekers, Julia Gillard, tony abbott
Q. Regardless of how you vote, what words would you use to describe the positions taken by Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott on the issue of asylum seekers? Choose as many that you think apply.
|
17 Oct 2011 |
3 Dec 2012 |
||||
|
Julia Gillard |
Tony Abbott |
Julia Gillard |
Tony Abbott |
Difference |
|
| Just playing politics |
46% |
47% |
39% |
42% |
-3 |
| Too soft |
21% |
7% |
32% |
9% |
+23 |
| Stubborn |
26% |
20% |
13% |
17% |
-4 |
| Populist |
13% |
14% |
13% |
11% |
+2 |
| Fair |
10% |
15% |
10% |
13% |
-3 |
| Responsible |
11% |
16% |
9% |
14% |
-5 |
| Unethical |
24% |
14% |
9% |
13% |
-4 |
| Balanced |
7% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
-3 |
| Too hard |
10% |
6% |
6% |
11% |
-5 |
| Cruel |
13% |
9% |
5% |
11% |
-6 |
| Principled |
6% |
11% |
5% |
8% |
-3 |
| Visionary |
6% |
5% |
2% |
4% |
-2 |
The most common descriptor for both Julia Gillard (39%) and Tony Abbott (42%) was that they are “just playing politics” over the issue of asylum seekers.
The main difference between the leaders positions on asylum seekers was that Julia Gillard was more likely to be considered “too soft” (32% to 9%).
Since this question was asked in October last year, the proportion describe Julia Gillard’s position as too soft has increased by 11%, stubborn decreased by 13%, unethical decreased by 15% and cruel decreased by 8%. Opinions of Tony Abbott’s position have remained much the same.
03 December 2012, 031212, Christmas spending
Q. Thinking about Christmas spending – compared to last year, do you expect to be spending more on gifts at Christmas, less or much the same?
|
Dec 08 |
Dec 09 |
Nov 10 |
Dec 11 |
Dec 12 |
|
| Will spend more |
3% |
11% |
10% |
13% |
14% |
| Will be spending less |
38% |
38% |
38% |
40% |
24% |
| Spend much the same |
55% |
47% |
48% |
44% |
58% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
4% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
14% say they will spend more on gifts at Christmas this year, 24% will spend less and 58% much the same.
Compared to last year, those spending less has declined by 16% and those spending about the same increased 14%.
21% of those aged under 35 say they will spend more, 60% of those aged 35-54 will spend much the same and 69% of those aged 55+ will spend much the same. There is no significant relationship between changes in spending and income.
03 December 2012, 031212, Christmas spending, online retail, online shopping
Q. How much of your Christmas gift shopping do you expect you will be doing online?
| All or most of it |
4% |
| A bit more than half |
9% |
| About half |
12% |
| A bit less than half |
13% |
| Not much |
32% |
| None of it |
20% |
| Won’t be buying Christmas gifts |
5% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
25% say they will be doing at least half their Christmas gift shopping online and 70% will be doing at least some online.
35% of those aged under 45 say they will be doing at least half their shopping online compared to 16% of those aged 45+.
03 December 2012, 031212, Christmas, Credit Cards, Spending
Q. How much of your Christmas spending will you put on your credit cards?
|
5 Dec 11 |
3 Dec 12 |
|
| All or most of it |
23% |
26% |
| A bit more than half |
7% |
8% |
| About half |
9% |
7% |
| A bit less than half |
5% |
5% |
| Not much |
17% |
10% |
| None of it |
37% |
36% |
| Won’t be buying Christmas gifts |
na |
4% |
| Don’t know |
3% |
4% |
41% say they will put at least half their Christmas spending on credit cards – and a further 15% will put some spending on their credit cards.
Those most likely to use credit cards for at least half their spending were aged 35-44 (54%) and those least likely were aged 18-24 (18%). Those on higher incomes were much more likely to use their credit cards for Christmas spending – 55% of those on incomes over $1,600pw said they would put at least half on credit cards compared to only 20% of those on incomes under $600pw.