02 October 2012, 021012, 2PP, first preference vote, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 2,089 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 3/09/2012
|
2 weeks ago 17/09/2012 |
Last week 24/09/2012 |
This week |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
45% |
45% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
34% |
35% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 3/09/2012 |
2 weeks ago 17/09/2012 |
Last week 24/09/2012 |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
55% |
55% |
53% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
45% |
45% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
02 October 2012, 021012, Carbon Tax, support or oppose
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
|
7 Mar 2011 |
14 June 2011 |
19 Sep 2011 |
21 Nov 2011 |
25 Jun 2012 |
This week |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total support |
35% |
38% |
37% |
38% |
35% |
38% |
65% |
15% |
69% |
| Total oppose |
48% |
49% |
52% |
53% |
54% |
48% |
22% |
76% |
18% |
| Strongly support |
9% |
13% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
12% |
26% |
2% |
25% |
| Support |
26% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
21% |
26% |
39% |
13% |
44% |
| Oppose |
19% |
19% |
17% |
17% |
19% |
22% |
15% |
29% |
16% |
| Strongly oppose |
29% |
30% |
35% |
36% |
35% |
26% |
7% |
47% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
11% |
14% |
13% |
8% |
12% |
Whereas the majority of respondents have opposed the carbon tax since September 2011, this week’s results show that those opposed has fallen 6 points to 48%.
Support for the carbon tax over the same period (since September 2011) has not changed significantly, although since the last time the question was polled in June 2012, support has risen 3 points from 35% to 38%.
Looking at the results by voting intention, Greens voters were the most likely to support the carbon tax (69%), whereas Coalition voters were the most likely to oppose it 76%.
02 October 2012, 021012, Carbon Tax, cost of living, increase in cost
Q. Since the carbon tax was introduced on 1st July, have you noticed any increase in the costs of goods or services?
|
9 July 2012 |
20 Aug 2012 |
This week |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Yes, have noticed an increase in costs |
31% |
52% |
69% |
57% |
83% |
50% |
| No, have not noticed any increase in costs |
54% |
36% |
24% |
38% |
9% |
43% |
| Yes, have noticed a large increase in costs |
– |
– |
22% |
13% |
33% |
12% |
| Yes, have noticed a moderate increase in costs |
– |
– |
27% |
23% |
33% |
17% |
| Yes, have noticed a small increase in costs |
– |
– |
20% |
21% |
20% |
21% |
| No, have not noticed any increase in costs |
– |
– |
24% |
38% |
9% |
43% |
| Don’t know |
15% |
12% |
7% |
5% |
5% |
7% |
Responses to this question were changed for this week’s poll from previous results, by separating out the ‘Yes, have noticed an increase in costs’ into three sub-categories: those who claim to have noticed a large increase, a moderate increase and a small increase.
Combining those respondents who believe they have noticed either a large, moderate or small price increases since the carbon tax was introduced, the total yes figure has shifted 17 points up to 69%, from 52% in August 2012.
Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters are by far the most likely to claim to have noticed an increase in the cost of goods and services (83%), compared to 57% of Labor voters and 50% of Greens voters.
Greens voters are the most likely to have not noticed any increase in costs (43%).
02 October 2012, 021012, Carbon Tax, goods and services, price increase
Q. In respect of the increases to the costs of goods and services that you have noticed, do you believe that they are due to the carbon tax?
|
n=717 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Yes |
62% |
45% |
73% |
46% |
| No |
12% |
22% |
8% |
9% |
| Not sure |
26% |
33% |
19% |
45% |
The 69% of respondents (n=717) that believed they had noticed a price increase were asked whether they believed the increases were due to the carbon tax.
Sixty two per cent (62%) of these respondents believe that it is due to the carbon tax, whilst 12% do not. Twenty six per cent (26%) of respondents were not sure.
Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters were the most likely to attribute price increases to the carbon tax (73%) and 8% did not.
Forty five per cent (45%) of Labor voters believe the increases are due to the carbon tax and 22% do not.
Whilst 46% of Greens voters believe that the increases are due to the carbon tax (46%) an almost equal portion (45%) remain unsure.
02 October 2012, 021012, ADF, defence reforms, dental health scheme, Education, Gonski, National Disability Insurance Scheme, ndis
Q. The federal government has recently announced a number of major spending initiatives on health, education and defence reforms that will involve substantial investment over the next few years. For each of the reforms as they are described below, please indicate whether you believe it should be implemented or not
|
Implement the reform if it means higher taxes (including corporate and mining taxes) and cuts in other areas |
Do not implement the reform if it means higher taxes (including corporate and mining taxes) or cuts in other areas |
No opinion |
|
| National Disability Insurance Scheme to improve care and support for all people in Australia with a significant and permanent disability |
58% |
22% |
20% |
| New dental health scheme to provide free dental care for low-income patients and children |
53% |
29% |
18% |
| Gonski reforms to education to increase funding for each primary and secondary school student across the country |
48% |
30% |
21% |
| Purchase of new advanced submarines for the Australian Defence Force |
24% |
50% |
26% |
The majority of respondents support implementing the NDIS (58%) and the new dental health scheme (53%) if it means higher taxes (including corporate and mining taxes) and cuts in other areas.
A large portion of respondents (48%) also agree with implementing the Gonski reforms if it means higher taxes and cuts in other areas, whereas 30% would prefer to see these reforms not implemented.
On the purchase of new submarines for the ADF, most respondents felt that this reform should not be implemented if it means higher taxes and cuts in other areas (50%), whilst 24% are in favour of implementing the reform.
02 October 2012, 021012, Federal Budget, important for individuals, important for the country, surplus
Q. Thinking about the federal government budget, how important do you believe it is for the budget to be in surplus…?
|
Total important |
Total not important |
Very important |
Quite Important |
Not very important |
Not at all important |
Don’t know |
|
| …for the country as a whole |
68% |
22% |
26% |
42% |
18% |
4% |
10% |
| …for you personally |
46% |
42% |
15% |
31% |
31% |
11% |
11% |
A clear majority of respondents (68%) regard having a federal government budget surplus to be important for the country as a whole, whereas a significantly smaller portion regard to be important for them personally (46%).
Forty two per cent (42%) of respondents believe having a federal government budget surplus was not important for them personally.
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
||||
|
Total important |
Total not important |
Total important |
Total not important |
Total important |
Total not important |
|
| …for the country as a whole |
59% |
31% |
78% |
16% |
58% |
34% |
| …for you personally |
39% |
49% |
59% |
32% |
28% |
65% |
Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters were the most likely to regard a federal budget surplus to be important for the country as a whole (78%) as well as for them personally (59%).
Greens voters were the most likely to regard it as not important for them personally (65%).