02 July 2012, 020712, 2 party preferred, 2PP, Federal Election, first preference vote, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,846 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 4/6/12 |
2 weeks ago 18/6/12 |
Last week 25/6/12 |
This week 2/7/12 |
| Liberal |
|
47% |
46% |
46% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
50% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
33% |
33% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
25 June 2012, 250612, carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax, Federal Election, public support
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which, from July 2012, will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
|
7 Mar 2011 |
18 Apr |
23 May |
14 Jun |
18 Jul |
1 Aug |
19 Sep |
17 Oct |
21 Nov |
Total 25 Jun 12 |
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total support |
35% |
39% |
41% |
38% |
39% |
39% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
35% |
67% |
13% |
74% |
| Total oppose |
48% |
49% |
44% |
49% |
49% |
51% |
52% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
21% |
81% |
21% |
| Strongly support |
9% |
13% |
14% |
13% |
15% |
15% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
28% |
4% |
38% |
| Support |
26% |
26% |
27% |
25% |
24% |
24% |
23% |
25% |
24% |
21% |
39% |
9% |
36% |
| Oppose |
19% |
15% |
15% |
19% |
16% |
19% |
17% |
17% |
17% |
19% |
12% |
24% |
13% |
| Strongly oppose |
29% |
34% |
29% |
30% |
33% |
32% |
35% |
36% |
36% |
35% |
9% |
57% |
8% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
12% |
15% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
12% |
9% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
7% |
6% |
Support for the carbon pricing scheme has fallen a little since this question was asked in November last year. 35% (down 3%) support the scheme and 54% oppose (up 1%).
All demographic groups were more likely to oppose than support – although younger respondents showed higher support than older respondents. Support/oppose by age was 39%/45% for aged 18-34, 32%/56% for aged 35-54 and 33%/61% for aged 55+.
25 June 2012, 250612, Carbon Tax, Coalition, Federal Election, tony abbott
Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total likely |
44% |
28% |
64% |
42% |
| Total unlikely |
40% |
62% |
22% |
41% |
| Very likely |
17% |
15% |
24% |
14% |
| Quite likely |
27% |
13% |
40% |
28% |
| Not very likely |
24% |
29% |
18% |
24% |
| Not at all likely |
16% |
33% |
4% |
17% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
11% |
14% |
17% |
44% think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax if they won the next election and 40% think it is unlikely.
Views were broadly similar across demographic groups – although those aged 45-64 split 44% likely/44% unlikely.
12 June 2012, 120612, 2 party preferred, 2PP, ALP, Federal Election, Liberal, polls, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,830 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 14/5/12 |
2 weeks ago 28/5/12 |
Last week 4/6/12 |
This week 12/6/12 |
| Liberal |
|
47% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
30% |
33% |
33% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
7% |
7% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
57% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
04 June 2012, 040612, Federal Election, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,856 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 7/5/12 |
2 weeks ago 21/5/12 |
Last week 28/5/12 |
This week 4/6/12 |
| Liberal |
|
47% |
46% |
47% |
47% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
50% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
29% |
33% |
33% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
58% |
56% |
57% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
42% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
21 May 12, 210512, Federal Election, federal politics voting intention, Independents, Labor Party, Liberal Party, The Greens
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,918 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 23/4/12 |
2 weeks ago 7/5/12 |
Last week 14/5/12 |
This week 21/5/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
29% |
30% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
58% |
57% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
42% |
43% |
44 |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
2013, 2013 election, 30 April 2012, 300412, Election, Federal Election, Labor Government, Next Election, Polling, polls
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
|
5 Sept 11 |
5 Dec 11 |
30 Jan 12 |
5 Mar 12 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Should run to 2013 |
40% |
47% |
48% |
46% |
48% |
87% |
21% |
74% |
| Should hold election now |
48% |
41% |
41% |
44% |
42% |
7% |
75% |
20% |
| Don’t know |
12% |
12% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
48% think the Labor Government should run its full term until the 2013 election and 42% think an election should be held now.
10% don’t know.
Opinions have shifted a little toward having an election now since this question was polled in March 2012.
050312, 5 March 2012, ALP, Federal Election, Julia Gillard, Labor, Labor Party, Labor voters, Polling, polls, re-election, voters
Q. Has the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party made you more or less likely to support the ALP at the next federal election.
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total more likely |
13% |
33% |
5% |
18% |
| Total less likely |
47% |
21% |
64% |
38% |
| Much more likely |
6% |
17% |
1% |
5% |
| A little more likely |
7% |
16% |
4% |
13% |
| A little less likely |
10% |
11% |
7% |
16% |
| Much less likely |
37% |
10% |
57% |
22% |
| Makes no difference |
34% |
42% |
30% |
43% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
3% |
1% |
– |
47% say that the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader has made them less likely to support the Labor Party and only 13% say it has made them more likely to support the Labor Party at the next election.
Among Labor voters, 33% say it has made them more likely and 21% less likely to support Labor.