Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 12, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,830 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

14/5/12

2 weeks ago

28/5/12

Last week

4/6/12

This week

12/6/12

Liberal

47%

47%

47%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

50%

50%

50%

49%

Labor

38.0%

30%

33%

33%

32%

Greens

11.8%

11%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

7%

7%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

57%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

43%

43%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 4, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,856 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

7/5/12

2 weeks ago

21/5/12

Last week

28/5/12

This week

4/6/12

Liberal

47%

46%

47%

47%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

50%

49%

50%

50%

Labor

38.0%

29%

33%

33%

33%

Greens

11.8%

11%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

8%

7%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

58%

56%

57%

56%

Labor

50.1%

42%

44%

43%

44%

 

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Federal politics – voting intention

May 21, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,918 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

23/4/12

2 weeks ago

7/5/12

Last week

14/5/12

This week

21/5/12

Liberal

45%

47%

47%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

50%

50%

49%

Labor

38.0%

31%

29%

30%

33%

Greens

11.8%

11%

11%

11%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

58%

57%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

42%

43%

44

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Next Election

Apr 30, 2012

Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?

 

5 Sept 11

5 Dec 11

30 Jan 12

5 Mar 12

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Should run to 2013

40%

47%

48%

46%

48%

87%

21%

74%

Should hold election now

48%

41%

41%

44%

42%

7%

75%

20%

Don’t know

12%

12%

10%

10%

10%

5%

5%

6%

 

48% think the Labor Government should run its full term until the 2013 election and 42% think an election should be held now.

10% don’t know.

Opinions have shifted a little toward having an election now since this question was polled in March 2012.

Comments »

More or Less Likely to Vote Labor

Mar 5, 2012

Q. Has the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party made you more or less likely to support the ALP at the next federal election.

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total more likely

13%

33%

5%

18%

Total less likely

47%

21%

64%

38%

Much more likely

6%

17%

1%

5%

A little more likely

7%

16%

4%

13%

A little less likely

10%

11%

7%

16%

Much less likely

37%

10%

57%

22%

Makes no difference

34%

42%

30%

43%

Don’t know

5%

3%

1%

47% say that the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader has made them less likely to support the Labor Party and only 13% say it has made them more likely to support the Labor Party at the next election.

Among Labor voters, 33% say it has made them more likely and 21% less likely to support Labor.

Comments »

Next Election

Mar 5, 2012

Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?

 

5 Sept 11

5 Dec 11

30 Jan 12

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Should run to 2013

40%

47%

48%

46%

90%

17%

80%

Should hold election now

48%

41%

41%

44%

7%

77%

12%

Don’t know

12%

12%

10%

10%

4%

5%

8%

46% think the Labor Government should run its full term until the 2013 election and 44% think an election should be held now.

Opinions have shifted a little toward having an election now since this question was polled in January.

Comments »

Next Election

Jan 30, 2012

Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?

5 Sept 11 5 Dec 11 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Should run to 2013 40% 47% 48% 80% 19% 82%
Should hold election now 48% 41% 41% 12% 73% 11%
Don’t know 12% 12% 10% 8% 8% 7%

48% think that the Labor Government should be allowed to run its full term through to 2013 and 41% think a new election should be held. This is very similar to the results of this question when last asked in early December. Views closely follow voting voting intentions.

Comments »

Federal Election

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you expect that an early Federal election will be held in 2012?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 32% 24% 42% 26%
No 42% 55% 37% 50%
Don’t know 26% 21% 21% 23%

Respondents were more likely to think there will not be a Federal election next year – 32% expect there will be an election and 42% think there will not.

Comments »

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