25 June 2012, 250612, ABC, Julia Gillard, peter lewis, public trust, tony abbott
Peter Lewis spells out how Aussies have little trust in anyone or anything — except maybe the ABC.
Trust is hot property in politics. Everyone wants to claim it while undermining their opponent’s. Broken promises are played hard in the hope of achieving political bingo: irreparable reputational damage.
Labor’s flat-lining polls are widely attributed to Julia Gillard’s ‘trust issues’. Mind you, Tony Abbott isn’t considered to be excelling in the trustworthy stakes either. They barely muster a pass mark between them.
But something even more insidious is beginning to occur, as this week’s Essential Report suggests. Loss of trust is contagious. We’re not just cynical about politicians; we are also losing faith in the institutions that underpin public life.
Read the full article on The Drum.
2 party preferred, 25 June 2012, 250612, 2PP, ALP, Coalition, federal politics voting intention, Greens, Independent, Labor Party, Nationals
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,853 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 28/5/12 |
2 weeks ago 12/6/12 |
Last week 18/6/12 |
This week 25/6/12 |
| Liberal |
|
47% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
50% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
32% |
33% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
25 June 2012, 250612, carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax, Federal Election, public support
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which, from July 2012, will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
|
7 Mar 2011 |
18 Apr |
23 May |
14 Jun |
18 Jul |
1 Aug |
19 Sep |
17 Oct |
21 Nov |
Total 25 Jun 12 |
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total support |
35% |
39% |
41% |
38% |
39% |
39% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
35% |
67% |
13% |
74% |
| Total oppose |
48% |
49% |
44% |
49% |
49% |
51% |
52% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
21% |
81% |
21% |
| Strongly support |
9% |
13% |
14% |
13% |
15% |
15% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
28% |
4% |
38% |
| Support |
26% |
26% |
27% |
25% |
24% |
24% |
23% |
25% |
24% |
21% |
39% |
9% |
36% |
| Oppose |
19% |
15% |
15% |
19% |
16% |
19% |
17% |
17% |
17% |
19% |
12% |
24% |
13% |
| Strongly oppose |
29% |
34% |
29% |
30% |
33% |
32% |
35% |
36% |
36% |
35% |
9% |
57% |
8% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
12% |
15% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
12% |
9% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
7% |
6% |
Support for the carbon pricing scheme has fallen a little since this question was asked in November last year. 35% (down 3%) support the scheme and 54% oppose (up 1%).
All demographic groups were more likely to oppose than support – although younger respondents showed higher support than older respondents. Support/oppose by age was 39%/45% for aged 18-34, 32%/56% for aged 35-54 and 33%/61% for aged 55+.
25 June 2012, 250612, Carbon Tax, cost of living increase
Q. From what you have read and heard, what impact do you expect the carbon tax will have on your cost of living?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Costs will increase a lot |
45% |
24% |
62% |
14% |
| Costs will increase a moderate amount |
26% |
27% |
27% |
30% |
| Costs will increase a little |
20% |
38% |
8% |
37% |
| It will have no impact on costs |
2% |
4% |
* |
9% |
| Don’t know |
6% |
6% |
3% |
10% |
45% believe that their cost of living will increase a lot because of the carbon tax and 26% think it will increase a moderate amount.
55% of those aged 55+, 49% of aged 35-54 and 50% of people not working think their cost of living will increase a lot. There were no substantial differences by income.
25 June 2012, 250612, Carbon Tax, cost of living, energy prices, fresh fruit and vegetable prices, Fuel Prices, grocery prices, Interest rates, unemployment
Q. And what impact do you expect the carbon tax to have on each of the following?
|
Increase a lot |
Increase a little |
Stay much the same |
Decrease a little |
Decrease a lot |
Don’t know |
|
| Energy prices |
67% |
26% |
4% |
* |
– |
3% |
| Fuel prices |
53% |
31% |
11% |
1% |
* |
4% |
| Grocery prices |
41% |
41% |
14% |
1% |
– |
4% |
| Fresh fruit and vegetable prices |
39% |
39% |
18% |
* |
* |
4% |
| Unemployment |
31% |
27% |
32% |
2% |
1% |
8% |
| Interest rates |
22% |
18% |
38% |
8% |
1% |
13% |
A majority expect that energy prices (67%) and fuel prices (53%) will increase a lot due to the carbon tax. 41% expect grocery prices to increase a lot and 39% expect fresh fruit and vegetable prices to increase a lot.
A majority of all demographic groups expect energy prices to increase a lot – even 48% of Labor voters agree.
Those most likely to think fuel prices will increase a lot were women (57%), aged 45-54 (60%) and Liberal/National voters (68%).
Those most likely to think grocery prices will increase a lot were aged 45+ (50%), Liberal/National voters (55%) and those on incomes under $600pw (47%). Opinions about fresh fruit and vegetable prices were similar.
58% also think that unemployment will increase and 40% think interest rates will increase because of the carbon tax.
25 June 2012, 250612, Carbon Tax, Coalition, Federal Election, tony abbott
Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total likely |
44% |
28% |
64% |
42% |
| Total unlikely |
40% |
62% |
22% |
41% |
| Very likely |
17% |
15% |
24% |
14% |
| Quite likely |
27% |
13% |
40% |
28% |
| Not very likely |
24% |
29% |
18% |
24% |
| Not at all likely |
16% |
33% |
4% |
17% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
11% |
14% |
17% |
44% think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax if they won the next election and 40% think it is unlikely.
Views were broadly similar across demographic groups – although those aged 45-64 split 44% likely/44% unlikely.
25 June 2012, 250612, ABC radio, ABC TV, Commercial TV, current affairs, Internet blogs, media, news and opinion, trust in media
Q. How much trust do you have in what you read or hear in the following media?
|
Total a lot/some 15 Mar 10 |
Total a lot /some 25 Jul 11 |
Total a lot /some 12 Dec 11
|
Total a lot/some |
A lot of trust |
Some trust |
Not much trust |
No trust at all |
Don’t know |
Don’t use |
|
| News and opinion in daily newspapers |
62% |
53% |
46% |
52% |
6% |
46% |
30% |
11% |
2% |
6% |
| News and opinion in local newspapers |
– |
54% |
52% |
56% |
7% |
49% |
27% |
10% |
2% |
5% |
| Commercial TV news and current affairs |
64% |
48% |
43% |
46% |
6% |
40% |
33% |
16% |
2% |
3% |
| ABC TV news and current affairs |
70% |
71% |
72% |
74% |
25% |
49% |
15% |
5% |
2% |
5% |
| Commercial radio news and current affairs |
54% |
46% |
45% |
45% |
5% |
40% |
32% |
14% |
3% |
7% |
| ABC radio news and current affairs |
62% |
67% |
67% |
69% |
23% |
46% |
14% |
6% |
3% |
8% |
| Commercial radio talkback programs |
38% |
33% |
33% |
33% |
5% |
28% |
32% |
21% |
3% |
11% |
| ABC radio talkback programs |
45% |
47% |
47% |
50% |
10% |
40% |
25% |
9% |
4% |
12% |
| News and opinion websites |
49% |
41% |
38% |
40% |
5% |
37% |
33% |
14% |
3% |
8% |
| Internet blogs |
20% |
20% |
17% |
20% |
3% |
17% |
36% |
26% |
4% |
14% |
Overall, trust in media has changed little since this question was asked last year. Trust has stayed much the same or increased slightly for all media measured.
The most trusted media were ABC TV news and current affairs (74% a lot/some trust) and ABC radio news and current affairs (69%).
The least trusted were internet blogs (20%) and commercial radio talkback programs (33%).
25 June 2012, 250612, Courier Mail, Herald Sun, Newspapers, Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, The Australian, the telegraph, trust in media
Q. How much trust do you have in what you read in the following newspapers?
|
Total a lot/some 25 Jul 11 |
Total a lot/some |
A lot of trust |
Some trust |
Not much trust |
No trust at all |
Don’t know |
|
| The Australian |
69% |
60% |
15% |
45% |
23% |
12% |
6% |
| The Telegraph (NSW only) |
52% |
49% |
10% |
39% |
30% |
19% |
3% |
| Sydney Morning Herald (NSW only) |
74% |
69% |
19% |
50% |
22% |
6% |
4% |
| The Age (Victoria only) |
79% |
76% |
20% |
56% |
18% |
5% |
1% |
| Herald Sun (Victoria only) |
54% |
51% |
8% |
43% |
32% |
15% |
1% |
| Courier Mail (Queensland only) |
65% |
51% |
6% |
45% |
28% |
13% |
7% |
* Note : Percentages based only on respondents who had read each newspaper.
Among those who have read the newspaper, 20% have a lot of trust in The Age and 19% have a lot of trust in the SMH. 15% of readers of The Australian have a lot of trust in the newspaper but only 10% have a lot of trust in The Telegraph and 8% in The Herald Sun. 49% have not much or no trust in The Telegraph and 47% have not much or no trust in The Herald Sun.
Overall, the most trusted newspapers were The Age (76% a lot/some trust) and the SMH (69%). The least trusted were The Telegraph (49% a lot/some trust), the HeraldSun (51%) and the Courier Mail (51%).
Since this question was asked last year, there have been significant declines in trust in the Courier Mail (down 14%) and The Australian (down 9%).
Liberal/National voters (70%) were more likely than Labor voters (48%) to have a lot or some trust in The Australian.