Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,837 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 2/7/12 |
2 weeks ago 16/7/12 |
Last week 23/7/12 |
This week 30/7/12 |
| Liberal |
45% |
46% |
45% |
45% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
31% |
33% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
57% |
56% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,876 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 12/6/12 |
2 weeks ago 25/6/12 |
Last week 2/7/12 |
This week 9/7/12 |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
46% |
45% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
33% |
32% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,853 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 28/5/12 |
2 weeks ago 12/6/12 |
Last week 18/6/12 |
This week 25/6/12 |
| Liberal |
|
47% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
50% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
32% |
33% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Updated: NSW State Voting Intention
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| First preference /leaning to | Total | Men | Women | Sydney | Other NSW | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ |
| Sample | 971 | 481 | 490 | 622 | 349 | 309 | 391 | 271 |
| Labor | 23% | 23% | 24% | 20% | 29% | 21% | 24% | 25% |
| Liberal/National | 55% | 56% | 53% | 60% | 46% | 55% | 54% | 55% |
| Greens | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 9% |
| Independent/Other | 11% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 15% | 10% | 13% | 11% |
| 2PP | ||||||||
| Labor | 34% | 33% | 35% | 29% | 42% | 32% | 35% | 34% |
| Liberal/National | 66% | 67% | 65% | 71% | 58% | 68% | 65% | 66% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by separately distributing the votes of the Greens and the Independents/other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. This calculation excludes exhausted votes.
NSW State Voting Intention
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| First preference /leaning to | Total | Men | Women | Sydney | Other NSW | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ |
| Sample | 967 | 483 | 484 | 615 | 352 | 300 | 396 | 271 |
| Labor | 24% | 24% | 23% | 21% | 27% | 25% | 23% | 23% |
| Liberal/National | 54% | 54% | 53% | 57% | 47% | 50% | 53% | 58% |
| Greens | 12% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 9% |
| Independent/Other | 11% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 11% | 11% |
| 2PP | ||||||||
| Labor | 35% | 35% | 35% | 31% | 41% | 38% | 35% | 32% |
| Liberal/National | 65% | 65% | 65% | 69% | 59% | 62% | 65% | 68% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by separately distributing the votes of the Greens and the Independents/other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. This calculation excludes exhausted votes.
NSW State Voting Intention – Demographic Analysis
| First preference /leaning to | Total | Men | Women | Sydney | Other NSW | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ |
| Sample | 1248 | 625 | 623 | 799 | 449 | 404 | 491 | 353 |
| Labor | 27% | 27% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 20% |
| Liberal/National | 51% | 49% | 53% | 54% | 46% | 46% | 48% | 59% |
| Greens | 12% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 9% | 15% | 12% | 8% |
| Independent/Other | 11% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 15% | 7% | 11% | 13% |
| 2PP | ||||||||
| Labor | 41% | 42% | 40% | 39% | 44% | 46% | 43% | 32% |
| Liberal/National | 59% | 58% | 60% | 61% | 56% | 54% | 57% | 68% |
Federal politics – voting intention
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?
Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?
1,850 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 32% | 41% | 39% | 38% | 38% |
| National | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 35% | 43% | 41% | 40% | 41% |
| Labor | 46% | 38% | 39% | 37% | 35% |
| Greens | 10% | 10% | 9% | 12% | 14% |
| Family First | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 8 |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 42% | 50% | 49% | 48% | 49% |
| Labor | 58% | 50% | 51% | 52% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.
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