12 June 2012, 120612, australian polling, EMC Director, peter lewis, trends
EMC Director Peter Lewis runs the ruler over the first six months of polling and comes out wondering where all the bad vibes are coming from. When politics is toxic, he argues, the progressive side of politics loses.
12 June 2012, 120612, 2 party preferred, 2PP, ALP, Federal Election, Liberal, polls, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,830 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 14/5/12 |
2 weeks ago 28/5/12 |
Last week 4/6/12 |
This week 12/6/12 |
| Liberal |
|
47% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
30% |
33% |
33% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
7% |
7% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
57% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
12 June 2012, 120612, Approval of Julia Gillard, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
16 Apr |
14 May |
12 Jun |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
37% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
31% |
32% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
54% |
52% |
53% |
61% |
58% |
60% |
56% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
7% |
5% |
6% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
31% |
30% |
24% |
25% |
26% |
26% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
27% |
26% |
29% |
31% |
26% |
22% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
29% |
25% |
27% |
32% |
27% |
34% |
34% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
10% |
12% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has improved a little since last month. 32% (up 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 56% (down 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -29 to -24 over the last 4 weeks.
74% of Labor voters approve (up 5%) and 16% disapprove (down 8%).
By gender – men 32% approve/57% disapprove, women 32% approve/54% disapprove.
12 June 2012, 120612, Abbott approval, Approval of Tony Abbott, Opposition leader
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
16 Apr |
14 May |
12 Jun |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
35% |
35% |
36% |
38% |
36% |
32% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
51% |
53% |
52% |
50% |
53% |
54% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
6% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
28% |
29% |
29% |
31% |
29% |
26% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
23% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
26% |
30% |
29% |
27% |
29% |
30% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
13% |
11% |
13% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has declined a little over the last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 54% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -22 over the last 4 weeks.
67% (down 4%) of Coalition voters approve and 22% (up 3%) disapprove.
By gender – men 35% approve/56% disapprove, women 30% approve/52% disapprove.
12 June 2012, 120612, Better Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, Tony abbot
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
16 Apr |
14 May |
12 Jun |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
39% |
41% |
40% |
38% |
38% |
37% |
83% |
4% |
66% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
36% |
34% |
37% |
36% |
37% |
37% |
3% |
78% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
24% |
26% |
14% |
18% |
30% |
37% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 38%/35% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/35%.
12 June 2012, 120612, Australian workers, Federal Government, Gina Rinehart, mining company, mining industry, overseas workers, public opinion
Q. The Federal Government recently gave approval to Gina Rinehart’s mining company to bring in 1,700 overseas workers. Do you approve or disapprove of overseas workers being brought in to work in Australia’s mining industry?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
16% |
20% |
19% |
10% |
| Total disapprove |
60% |
55% |
61% |
58% |
| Strongly approve |
3% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
| Approve |
13% |
17% |
16% |
5% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove |
20% |
23% |
18% |
30% |
| Disapprove |
25% |
27% |
25% |
30% |
| Strongly disapprove |
35% |
28% |
36% |
28% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
16% approve of the Government’s approval for Gina Rinehart’s mining company to bring in 1,700 overseas workers and 60% disapprove.
A majority of all voter groups disapproved.
Highest approval came from men (20%), full-time workers (20%) and respondents aged 65+ (21%).
12 June 2012, 120612, mining companies, overseas workers, reduce costs, skilled workers
Q. Why do you think mining companies would bring in overseas workers for Australia’s mines?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Australia doesn’t have enough skilled workers |
18% |
20% |
18% |
19% |
| Australians don’t want to work in the mining industry |
17% |
17% |
18% |
18% |
| It is cheaper to bring in overseas workers |
59% |
60% |
58% |
58% |
| Don’t know |
6% |
3% |
5% |
5% |
59% think that mining companies bring in overseas workers because it is cheaper, 18% think Australia doesn’t have enough skilled workers and 17% think Australians don’t want to work in the mining industry.
Views were similar across all voter and demographic groups.
12 June 2012, 120612, australian resources, labour costs, mining companies, taxes, threat to mining
Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Labour costs and taxes threaten the future of mining investment in Australia |
32% |
19% |
47% |
16% |
| Mining companies want Australian resources and they will continue to invest here despite labour costs and taxes |
49% |
62% |
39% |
69% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
19% |
14% |
15% |
49% agree with the statement that mining companies want Australian resources and they will continue to invest here despite labour costs and taxes and 32% agree that labour costs and taxes threaten the future of mining investment in Australia.
Those most likely to agree that labour costs and taxes threaten the future of mining investment in Australia were Liberal/National voters (47%) and residents of Queensland (41%).