2PP, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, Independent, Labor, Liberal, NSW, NSW 2PP, NSW Election, NSW vote, NSW voting intention, Polling, polls, Voting intention
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| First preference /leaning to | Total | Men | Women | Sydney | Other NSW | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ |
| Sample | 967 | 483 | 484 | 615 | 352 | 300 | 396 | 271 |
| Labor | 24% | 24% | 23% | 21% | 27% | 25% | 23% | 23% |
| Liberal/National | 54% | 54% | 53% | 57% | 47% | 50% | 53% | 58% |
| Greens | 12% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 9% |
| Independent/Other | 11% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 11% | 11% |
| 2PP | ||||||||
| Labor | 35% | 35% | 35% | 31% | 41% | 38% | 35% | 32% |
| Liberal/National | 65% | 65% | 65% | 69% | 59% | 62% | 65% | 68% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by separately distributing the votes of the Greens and the Independents/other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. This calculation excludes exhausted votes.
Election, EMC, Labor, Liberal, NSW, Voting intention
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| First preference/leaning to
(sample) |
Jan/Feb 2011
(1,247) |
Sept/Oct 10
(1,953) |
Election
Mar 07 |
Change |
| Liberal/National | 51% | 50% | 37.0% | +14.0% |
| Labor | 27% | 29% | 39.0% | -12.0% |
| Greens | 12% | 11% | 9.0% | +3.0% |
| Other/Independent | 11% | 10% | 15.0% | -4.0% |
| 2PP | Jan/Feb 2011 | Sept/Oct 10 | Election
Mar 07 |
Change |
| Liberal/National | 59% | 58% | 47.7% | +11.3% |
| Labor | 41% | 42% | 52.3% | -11.3% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 4-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election.
2PP, demographic, Greens, Independent, Labor, Liberal, National, NSW, voting
| First preference /leaning to | Total | Men | Women | Sydney | Other NSW | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ |
| Sample | 1248 | 625 | 623 | 799 | 449 | 404 | 491 | 353 |
| Labor | 27% | 27% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 20% |
| Liberal/National | 51% | 49% | 53% | 54% | 46% | 46% | 48% | 59% |
| Greens | 12% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 9% | 15% | 12% | 8% |
| Independent/Other | 11% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 15% | 7% | 11% | 13% |
| 2PP | ||||||||
| Labor | 41% | 42% | 40% | 39% | 44% | 46% | 43% | 32% |
| Liberal/National | 59% | 58% | 60% | 61% | 56% | 54% | 57% | 68% |
2PP, Election, New South Wales, NSW, NSW State Election, State Election, Voting intention
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,953
| First preference/leaning to | Total | Election
Mar 07 |
Change |
| Liberal | 47% | 26.9% | |
| National | 3% | 10.1% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 50% | 37.0% | +13.0% |
| Labor | 29% | 39.0% | -10.0% |
| Greens | 11% | 9.0% | +2.0% |
| Other/Independent | 10% | 15.0% | -5.0% |
| 2PP | Total | Election
Mar 07 |
Change |
| Total Lib/Nat | 58% | 47.7% | +10.3% |
| Labor | 42% | 52.3% | -10.3% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 6-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. Comments »
2PP, Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, NSW, QLD, SA, Victoria, Voting intention, WA
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
First preference
| Total | NSW | Victoria | Queensland | SA | WA | |
| Liberal | 40% | 42% | 37% | 42% | 39% | 47% |
| National | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | – | 2% |
| Coalition | 43% | 46% | 40% | 46% | 40% | 49% |
| Labor | 40% | 38% | 43% | 36% | 39% | 37% |
| Greens | 10% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 10% |
| Others | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 5% |
2PP
| Total | NSW | Victoria | Queensland | SA | WA | |
| Liberal/National | 49% | 52% | 45% | 53% | 46% | 53% |
| Labor | 51% | 48% | 55% | 47% | 54% | 47% |
| Labor 2PP 2007 election | 52.7% | 53.7% | 54.3% | 50.4% | 52.4% | 46.7% |
| Shift in Labor vote since 2007 election | -1.7 | -5.7 | +0.7 | -3.4 | +1.6 | +0.3 |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.