Essential Report

Angry Punter’s NSW Election Form Guide

Mar 25, 2011

Tomorrow voters across NSW will be lining up to take a punt on their next government.  Who are the favourites, who are the outsiders, and where are the value bets?  The Angry Punter has cast his eye over the political horse flesh and provided his tips exclusively for The Unspun.

Race 1 – Premier of NSW Cup

This is supposedly a two-horse race, but the burly stallion Bazza O’Fazza will start at shorter odds than Black Caviar.  Little value for punters in this one.

Bazza O’Fazza – Long considered to be little more than a plodder, Bazza O’Fazza has developed into a genuine stayer with a wily sense of timing.  Has been set for this race, and will be very hard to beat.

Nobody’s Puppet – The imported glamour filly from has always been highly regarded, but has been hampered by a terrible preparation this time around.  A number of her ALP stable mates have been very frisky in the mounting yards, and this has caused endless distractions for young trainer Sam Dastyari.  Nobody’s Puppet has earned respect for simply getting to the starting gates under the circumstances.  Anything better than last by 15 lengths will be considered a success.

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Updated: NSW State Voting Intention

Mar 23, 2011

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

First preference /leaning to Total Men Women Sydney Other NSW Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Sample 971 481 490 622 349 309 391 271
Labor 23% 23% 24% 20% 29% 21% 24% 25%
Liberal/National 55% 56% 53% 60% 46% 55% 54% 55%
Greens 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 14% 9% 9%
Independent/Other 11% 10% 12% 10% 15% 10% 13% 11%
2PP
Labor 34% 33% 35% 29% 42% 32% 35% 34%
Liberal/National 66% 67% 65% 71% 58% 68% 65% 66%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by separately distributing the votes of the Greens and the Independents/other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. This calculation excludes exhausted votes.

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Nuclear boosters now in meltdown

Mar 22, 2011

First published on The Drum: 22/03/2011

Beyond its gob-smacking human tragedy and the looming economic catastrophe, the Japanese tsunami has thrown a radioactive wildcard into the global debate over climate change.

The fallout from the meltdown of Japanese nuclear reactors will undermine the until-now successful attempts by the nuclear industry to reposition itself as part of the global warming solution.

As this week’s Essential Report shows, the public had been coming around to the idea that developing nuclear power in Australia was acceptable. This has changed dramatically over the past seven days with one quarter of all Australians changing their position.

Q. Do you support or oppose Australia developing nuclear power plants for the generation of electricity?


27 Jan 09 20 Dec 10 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 43% 43% 35% 29% 46% 18%
Total oppose 35% 37% 53% 58% 43% 78%
Strongly support 14% 16% 12% 10% 17% 7%
Support 29% 27% 23% 19% 29% 11%
Oppose 21% 21% 21% 23% 22% 15%
Strongly oppose 14% 16% 32% 35% 21% 63%
Don’t know 22% 19% 13% 13% 11% 5%

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To tax or not to tax, that is the question

Mar 21, 2011

First published on The Drum: 15/03/2011

Context is everything. All of a sudden Labor’s political predicament does not seem as dire; no-one is dead or missing; nuclear reactors aren’t melting down; the only after-shocks are electoral.

The enormity of the Japan catastrophe wipes everything else from public consciousness, allowing a wounded prime minister and her team to step back from the limelight, reflect and regroup.

As this week’s Essential Report shows, there is a path to repairing the damage the government has suffered and a way of setting up a debate that could, in the long-term, see it regain the political initiative.

Like so much in politics, the secret lies in the questions you ask. Ask whether people support a price on carbon and the answer is a decisive ‘no’.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 21, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,947

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 40% 44% 45% 44%
National 3% 3% 2% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 43% 47% 47% 46%
Labor 38.0 39% 36% 35% 36%
Greens 11.8 11% 10% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6 7% 7% 8% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 49% 53% 54% 53%
Labor 50.1% 51% 47% 46% 47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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The Carbon Tax

Mar 21, 2011

Q. Thinking about the proposed carbon tax, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

Total agree Total disagree Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
A carbon tax will substantially increase the cost of electricity 79% 8% 47% 32% 6% 2% 13%
The cost of electricity will increase substantially even without a carbon tax 78% 11% 26% 52% 10% 1% 11%
A carbon tax is an effective way to force large polluting companies to reduce their carbon pollution 42% 43% 13% 29% 21% 22% 14%
A carbon tax will increase investment in renewable energy 41% 38% 14% 27% 20% 18% 22%

79% agree that a carbon tax will substantially increase the cost of electricity but 78% agree that the cost of electricity will increase substantially even without a carbon tax.

Respondents were evenly divided over whether a carbon tax is an effective way to force large polluting companies to reduce their carbon pollution (42% agreer/43% disagree) and whether a carbon tax will increase investment in renewable energy (41% agree/38% disagree).

Males (84%) were more likely than females (74%) to agree or strongly agree that ‘a carbon tax will substantially increase the costs of electricity.’

Females (53%) were more likely than males (41%) to agree or strongly agree that ‘a carbon tax is an effective way to force large polluting companies to reduce their carbon pollution.’

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Tony Abbott and Climate Change

Mar 21, 2011

Q. As far as you know, do Tony Abbott and the Coalition support action to address climate change or are they opposed to taking any action?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Support action to address climate change 36% 27% 59% 31%
Are opposed to any action to address climate change 33% 47% 17% 48%
Don’t know 29% 26% 24% 21%

Overall, respondents were divided over the position of Tony Abbott and the Coalition on climate change – 36% believe they support action to address climate change and 33% think are they opposed to taking any action.

Those that intend to vote Lib/Nat were far more likely to believe that Tony Abbott and the Coalition support action to address climate change (59%).

Those that intend to vote for Labor (47%) or the Green (48%) were more likely to state that Tony Abbott and the Coalition are opposed to any action to address climate change.

Males (42%) were more likely than females (34%) to state that Tony Abbott and the Coalition support action to address climate change.

Females (39%) were more likely than males (19%) to state ‘Don’t know.’

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Troops in Afghanistan

Mar 21, 2011

Q.  Thinking about the Australian troops in Afghanistan, do you think Australia should –

25 Oct 2010 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Increase the number of troops in Afghanistan 10% 5% 7% 6% 1%
Keep the same number of troops in Afghanistan 30% 30% 26% 39% 16%
Withdraw our troops from Afghanistan 47% 56% 62% 48% 74%
Don’t know 14% 9% 5% 7% 9%

35% think that the Australian troops in Afghanistan should be increased or maintained and 56% think Australia should withdraw its troops. This is a significant shift (+9%) in favour of withdrawal since this question was last asked in October 2010.

62% of Labor voters and 74% of Greens voters support withdrawal. Liberal/National voters are split – 48% support withdrawal and 45 support increasing/maintaining troop numbers.

Males were more likely than females to state that Australia should increase the number of troops in Afghanistan (9% compared to 2% of females) or keep the same number of troops in Afghanistan (36% compared to 24% of females).

However, the majority of both males (49%) and females (63%) think Australia should withdraw troops from Afghanistan.

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