Essential Report

Carbon Pricing

Mar 29, 2011

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

7 March 14 March Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 35% 38% 34% 63% 14% 56%
Total oppose 48% 49% 51% 23% 80% 24%
Strongly support 9% 12% 12% 22% 4% 29%
Support 26% 26% 22% 41% 10% 27%
Oppose 19% 17% 19% 12% 24% 13%
Strongly oppose 29% 32% 32% 11% 56% 11%
Don’t know 18% 13% 15% 14% 7% 19%

Support for the Government’s carbon pricing scheme has fallen over the last 2 weeks. 34% now support the scheme and 51% are opposed.

Opinion has polarized among voters for the major parties. Support among Labor voters has increased from 55% to 63% while opposition from Coalition voters has increased from 73% to 80%.  Support has fallen among Greens voters – 2 weeks ago they split 78% support/11% oppose compared to this week’s 56% support/24% oppose.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 28, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size =1,917

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 42% 45% 44% 43%
National 3% 2% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 45% 47% 46% 46%
Labor 38.0 37% 35% 36% 37%
Greens 11.8 11% 10% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6 7% 8% 8% 7%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 52% 54% 53% 52%
Labor 50.1% 48% 46% 47% 48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Form of Compensation Preferred

Mar 28, 2011

Q. The Federal Government says that the funds raised from the carbon tax will be used to compensate those affected by price increases. Which of the following forms of compensation do you favour?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
A direct payment to households 39% 44% 37% 50%
An income tax cut 33% 36% 34% 26%
A cut to the GST rate 13% 11% 17% 8%
Cuts to corporate taxes 2% 1% 2% 1%
Don’t know 13% 8% 10% 14%

39% favour compensation as a direct payment to households and 33% favour income tax cuts. Greens voters (50%) and Labor voters (44%) are most likely to favour a direct payment while Coalition voters split 37% direct payment/34% tax cut.

Older people strongly favour a direct payment  – among those aged 55+, 51% favour direct payment and 21% a tax cut, while for those aged 18-44, 39% favour a tax cut and 33% favour a direct payment.

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Early Election over Carbon Tax

Mar 28, 2011

Q. Do you think the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 40% 16% 67% 17%
No 44% 72% 20% 69%
Don’t know 17% 11% 13% 13%

40% think that the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax and 44% think they should not. 67% of Coalition voters favour an early election while 72% of Labor voters and 69% of Greens voters do not.

Men favour an early election 47%/41% while women oppose 46%/33%.

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Approval of Kevin Rudd as Foreign Minister

Mar 28, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Foreign Minister?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total approve 61% 83% 47% 74%
Total disapprove 19% 5% 33% 9%
Strongly approve 17% 27% 9% 25%
Approve 44% 56% 38% 49%
Disapprove 11% 4% 18% 7%
Strongly disapprove 8% 1% 15% 2%
Don’t know 21% 12% 21% 18%

61% approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Foreign Minister and 19% disapprove. 83% of Labor voters and 74% of Greens voters approve.

Coalition voters are also more likely to approve than disapprove (47% approve/33% disapprove).

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Military Intervention in Libya

Mar 28, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the military intervention in Libya being undertaken by the US, France, Italy, Canada and others?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total approve 57% 64% 63% 53%
Total disapprove 22% 20% 22% 23%
Strongly approve 18% 20% 22% 14%
Approve 39% 44% 41% 39%
Disapprove 14% 15% 12% 12%
Strongly disapprove 8% 5% 10% 11%
Don’t know 21% 17% 15% 24%

57% approve the military intervention in Libya while 22% disapprove. A majority of all voter groups approve – although Greens voters are more likely to be undecided (24% don’t know).

65% of men approve compared to 49% of women. By age – those aged 55+ approve 69%/18% and aged 18-44 approve 51%/23%

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Importance of Relationships with Other Countries

Mar 28, 2011

Q. How important is it for Australia to have a close relationship with the following nations?

Very important Quite important Not very important Don’t know Very Important 15 Nov Change
New Zealand 69% 24% 4% 3% 54% +15
United States 60% 33% 5% 2% 56% +4
United Kingdom 56% 35% 6% 3% 44% +12
China 48% 42% 6% 4% 45% +3
Japan 39% 47% 9% 4% 30% +9
Indonesia 31% 43% 20% 6% 30% +1
India 26% 42% 26% 5% 24% +2
Germany 23% 42% 29% 6% 15% +8
South Africa 16% 36% 39% 8% 12% +4

More than half the respondents think it is very important to have close relationships with the New Zealand (69%), United States (60%) and the United Kingdom (56%) and just under half think it is very important to have a close relationship with China (48%).

A close relationship with the United States is considered very important by 70% of Liberal/National voters and 57% of Labor voters and 48% of Greens voters.

Since this question was asked in November, there have been substantial increases in the rating of the importance of relations with New Zealand (+15%), United Kingdom (+12%) and Japan (+9%).

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Change in Relationships with Other Countries

Mar 28, 2011

Q. Would you like to see Australia’s relationship with these countries get closer, stay the same or become less close?

Get closer Stay the same Become less close Don’t know Get closer

15 Nov

Change
New Zealand 37% 55% 3% 5% 29% +8
China 32% 52% 9% 7% 30% +2
Japan 26% 59% 8% 7% 21% +5
United Kingdom 25% 62% 7% 5% 20% +5
United States 24% 61% 11% 5% 20% +4
Indonesia 21% 51% 20% 8% 23% -2
India 19% 53% 18% 9% 22% -3
Germany 18% 62% 10% 10% 14% +4
South Africa 13% 59% 17% 11% 11% +2

37% think that Australia’s relationship with New Zealand should get closer and 32% think our relationship with China should get closer.

Labor voters are most likely to favour closer relationships with China (31%) and New Zealand (31%).

Liberal/National voters are most likely to favour closer relationships with New Zealand (42%) and United States (34%).

Greens voters are most likely to favour closer relationships with New Zealand (43%), China (38%) and Japan (34%).

Since this question was asked in November, the percentage wanting a closer relationship with New Zealand has increased 8%, and increased 5% for Japan and the United Kingdom.

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