2PP, Election, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size =1,860
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 44% | 43% | 43% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 47% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 36% | 36% | 37% | 36% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 7% | 8% | 7% | 8% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 53% | 53% | 52% | 53% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 47% | 47% | 48% | 47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Australian economy, economy, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, State of the Economy
Q. Compared to other developed countries (e.g. USA, UK, Japan, European nations) how would you rate the current state of the Australian economy?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total good | 69% | 82% | 66% | 75% |
| Total poor | 7% | 2% | 9% | 1% |
| Very good | 24% | 37% | 15% | 38% |
| Good | 45% | 45% | 51% | 37% |
| Average | 21% | 14% | 24% | 21% |
| Poor | 4% | 2% | 5% | 1% |
| Very poor | 3% | – | 4% | – |
| Don’t know | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
69% believe that, compared to other developed countries, the current state of the Australian economy is good and 7% think it is poor. 82% of Labor voters think it is good compared to 75% of Greens voters and 66% of Liberal/National voters.
Those on higher incomes are more likely to think it is good – 75% of those on $1,600+ per week compared to 66% of those under $600 per week.
budget, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Federal Budget, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, spending on programs, spending on services
Q. Thinking about the next Federal Budget, overall do you think the Government should increase, maintain or cut spending on services and programs?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Increase spending | 15% | 16% | 13% | 20% |
| Maintain spending | 49% | 58% | 46% | 54% |
| Cut spending | 22% | 14% | 31% | 15% |
| Don’t know | 14% | 12% | 10% | 11% |
49% think the Government should maintain spending in the next Federal Budget, 22% think spending should be cut and 15% think it should be increased.
By voting intention, 74% of Labor voters and Greens voters think spending should be maintained or increased compared to 59% of Liberal/National voters. 31% of Liberal/National voters think spending should be cut.
Budget Surplus, cutting services, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Federal Budget Surplus, Greens, invest in infrastructure, Labor, Liberal, maintain services, Nationals, Polling, polls, raising taxes, return to surplus
Q. Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Return to surplus by 2012/13 | 14% | 16% | 16% | 9% |
| Delay return to surplus | 69% | 72% | 70% | 72% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 12% | 13% | 19% |
69% support delaying the return to surplus if it means cutting services and raising taxes – while 14% think it is more important to return to surplus by 2012/13.
78% of those aged 45+ support delaying the return to surplus.
economics, economy, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, finances, Greens, Labor, Liberal, money, Nationals, Polling, polls, the economy
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
| 1 Dec 08 | 15 Jun 09 | 5 Oct 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 4 April 11 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total better | 21% | 43% | 66% | 53% | 54% | 33% | 40% | 27% | 38% | 25% | 23% |
| Total worse | 61% | 37% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 31% | 30% | 37% | 26% | 48% | 33% |
| Get a lot better | 2% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
| Get a little better | 19% | 38% | 58% | 44% | 45% | 28% | 34% | 23% | 31% | 22% | 20% |
| Get a little worse | 45% | 28% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 23% | 20% | 27% | 22% | 33% | 27% |
| Get a lot worse | 16% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 4% | 15% | 6% |
| Stay much the same | 13% | 17% | 15% | 24% | 22% | 30% | 24% | 27% | 32% | 23% | 35% |
| No opinion | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 5% | 8% |
Optimism about Australia’s economic outlook has declined substantially in the last 6 months. 27% think economic conditions in Australia will get better over the next 12 months and 37% think they will get worse – a net decline of 20% since this question was last asked in October. This is the most negative result recorded since December 2008.
Younger people are more optimistic than older people – of those aged under 35, 34% think conditions will get better and 27% worse.
38% of Labor voters think conditions will get better and 26% worse while 25% of Coalition voters think conditions will get better and 48% worse.
EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, finances, financial situation, Greens, Labor, Liberal, money, Nationals, Personal financial situation, Polling, polls
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
| 29 Mar 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 4 April 11 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total better | 40% | 29% | 33% | 32% | 37% | 29% | 40% |
| Total worse | 23% | 31% | 29% | 31% | 28% | 35% | 21% |
| Get a lot better | 8% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Get a little better | 32% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 30% | 22% | 33% |
| Get a little worse | 17% | 21% | 21% | 22% | 21% | 24% | 16% |
| Get a lot worse | 6% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 5% |
| Stay much the same | 33% | 37% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 33% | 34% |
| No opinion | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 6% |
32% think their own personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months and 31% worse – 32% think they will stay much the same.
This is a little less optimistic than the October result – a decrease from net +4% to +1%.
Among full-time workers, 40% think their situation will get better and 27% worse while those who are not working are more pessimistic – 25% better/32% worse/36% much the same.
For those aged 55+, 15% expect their financial situation to get better and 39% worse while for those aged under 35, 48% expect it to get better and 24% worse.
EMC, employment, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, job loss, job security, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?
| 16 Feb 09 | 27 Apr 09 | 8 Jun 09 | 5 Oct 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 4 April 11 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total concerned | 62% | 67% | 52% | 49% | 45% | 39% | 43% | 40% | 43% | 39% | 46% | 42% |
| Very concerned | 22% | 24% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 7% |
| Somewhat concerned | 40% | 43% | 39% | 35% | 33% | 29% | 34% | 29% | 32% | 30% | 34% | 35% |
| Not at all concerned | 29% | 23% | 35% | 40% | 40% | 45% | 38% | 42% | 43% | 43% | 44% | 53% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 2% |
| No employees in the immediate family | 5% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 5% | 3% |
43% were concerned that they or some member of their immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so and 43% were not at all concerned – a net negative movement of 2% since the last survey in June.
Those on higher incomes (40% concerned/54% not concerned for incomes of $1,600+) were more optimistic than those on lower incomes (46% concerned/40% not concerned for incomes of $600-$1,000).
carbon pollution, carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax, Carbon Tax Compensation, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. If the Government compensated households by cutting income tax and increasing welfare payments, would you be more likely or less likely to support the proposed carbon tax?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| Total more likely | 38% | 58% | 26% | 49% | 37% | 40% | 43% | 38% | 34% |
| Total less likely | 16% | 10% | 23% | 14% | 20% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 15% |
| Much more likely | 14% | 26% | 7% | 20% | 15% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 12% |
| Somewhat more likely | 24% | 32% | 19% | 29% | 22% | 25% | 27% | 23% | 22% |
| Somewhat less likely | 5% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 4% |
| Much less likely | 11% | 4% | 17% | 10% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
| Makes no difference | 35% | 24% | 46% | 26% | 35% | 35% | 26% | 36% | 46% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 8% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 10% | 6% |
38% of respondents agreed they would be more likely to support the proposed carbon tax if the Government compensated households by cutting income tax and increasing welfare payments, 16% said they would be less likely to support it and 35% said it would make no difference.
Those most likely to support the tax were Labor voters (58%), Greens voters (49%) and younger respondents (43% of people aged 18-34). 46% of Coalition voters and 46% of those aged 55+ said it would make no difference to their view.