Reflection of JobKeeper surplus
Q. Last Friday the Federal Government announced that, due to an accounting error, the number of people on JobKeeper is around half what the Treasury estimated it to be. The current cost of JobKeeper has consequently been reduced from $130b to $70b.
How do you think this reflects on the government’s credibility?
| Federal Voting Intention | |||||
| Total | Labor | Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | |
| Very poorly | 18% | 30% | 6% | 24% | 22% |
| Quite poorly | 23% | 28% | 16% | 37% | 27% |
| Quite well | 11% | 12% | 14% | 8% | 5% |
| Very well | 5% | 4% | 5% | 0% | 10% |
| Does not affect the Government’s credibility | 43% | 26% | 59% | 31% | 37% |
| TOTAL: Poorly | 41% | 58% | 21% | 61% | 49% |
| TOTAL: Well | 16% | 16% | 19% | 8% | 15% |
| Base (n) | 1,059 | 299 | 413 | 95 | 136 |
- 43% of the public do not think the error causing the re-estimation of the JobKeeper cost affects the Government’s credibility, 41% think it reflects Very or Quite poorly.
- Most Coalition voters do not think the issue has affected the credibility of the Government (59%), while the majority of Labor (58%) and Greens (61%) voters think it reflects poorly.
Alternative spending options for JobKeeper surplus
Q. On which of the following would you prefer the Government use the $60B it has previously allocated to the JobKeeper program?
| Federal Voting Intention | |||||||
| Total | Labor | Coalition | Greens | TOTAL: Other | |||
| Extend financial schemes supporting those affected by the Covid-19 pandemic (JobSeeker increases, JobKeeper and free early learning childcare) beyond their current end dates | 35% | 40% | 28% | 48% | 29% | ||
| Broaden JobKeeper scheme to include universities, migrant workers and employees of companies owned by foreign governments | 20% | 23% | 15% | 25% | 24% | ||
| Put money towards reducing national debt accumulate during the Covid-19 pandemic | 45% | 37% | 57% | 27% | 47% | ||
| Base (n) | 1,059 | 299 | 413 | 95 | 136 | ||
- A third of people would prefer the JobKeeper budget to be spent on extending the scheme beyond its current end date, with a further 20% preferring the scheme to be broadened to include more workers. 45% want the money to be put towards reducing the national debt.
- Younger people (aged 18-34) are more likely to want the money extending (42%) or broadening the scheme (29%) compared to those over 55 (25% and 16%).
- Over half of Coalition voters (57%) and retired people (58%) prefer using the money to reduce National debt, rather than providing more support for those who have lost work due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Returning to budget surplus
Q. Before the 2019 Federal election, the Government promised the 2019-2020 budget would return to surplus. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about achieving a budget surplus?
| NET: Agree | NET: Disagree | Strongly agree | Somewhat agree | Somewhat disagree | Strongly disagree | Unsure | |
| It’s more important to spend money on bushfire recovery than fund the surplus | 79% | 11% | 50% | 30% | 7% | 5% | 9% |
| It’s understandable with the coronavirus impacting trade with China that the surplus won’t be achieved | 65% | 18% | 25% | 40% | 12% | 6% | 17% |
| The government was wrong to announce the budget ‘was back in the black’ before the last election | 57% | 24% | 25% | 32% | 17% | 7% | 19% |
- Four in five (79%) agree that it’s more important to spend money on bushfire recovery than fund the surplus; 65% agree that it’s understandable with the coronavirus impacting trade on China that the surplus won’t be achieved; and over half (57%) agree that the government was wrong to announce the budget ‘was back in the black’ before the last election.
- Coalition voters are least likely to agree that the government was wrong to announce the budget ‘was back in the black’ before the last election (44%); while Labor (70%) and Greens (68%) voters are most likely to agree.
Budget compared to last year’s
Q. Do you think this budget is better or worse than last year’s budget?
| Total
|
Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | ||
| Total better | 45% | 39% | 65% | 28% | 43% | |
| Total worse | 15% | 21% | 6% | 33% | 20% | |
| Much better | 11% | 7% | 23% | 1% | 4% | |
| A little better | 34% | 32% | 42% | 27% | 39% | |
| About the same | 31% | 35% | 25% | 31% | 30% | |
| A little worse | 10% | 12% | 5% | 21% | 14% | |
| Much worse | 5% | 9% | 1% | 12% | 6% | |
| Don’t know | 9% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 7% |
45% think this year’s budget is better than last year’s and 15% think it is worse. 31% think it is about the same.
Those most likely to think it is better were Liberal/National voters (65%) and respondents aged 55+ (63%).
Impact of Federal Budget
Q. In general, do you think the Federal Budget, announced on Tuesday 12th May 2015 will be good or bad for?
| Total good | Total bad
|
Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | 2014 good | 2014 bad | |||
| You personally | 15% | 28% | 3% | 12% | 48% | 19% | 9% | 9% | 13% | 52% | ||
| Average working people | 22% | 27% | 3% | 19% | 41% | 20% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 59% | ||
| Australian business | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 36% | 23% | ||
| Small businesses | 66% | 6% | 22% | 44% | 18% | 4% | 2% | 11% | – | – | ||
| Big businesses | 34% | 10% | 12% | 22% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 16% | – | – | ||
| The economy over all | 30% | 22% | 5% | 25% | 37% | 16% | 6% | 11% | 40% | 32% | ||
| People who are well off | 36% | 14% | 13% | 23% | 39% | 12% | 2% | 11% | 45% | 16% | ||
| People on lower incomes | 22% | 34% | 3% | 19% | 33% | 21% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 66% | ||
| Australian families | 29% | 27% | 5% | 24% | 34% | 19% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 62% | ||
| Older Australians | 20% | 34% | 3% | 17% | 35% | 23% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 66% | ||
| Younger Australians | 21% | 29% | 3% | 18% | 37% | 20% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 55% |
Two thirds (66%) of respondents think the budget will be good for small businesses.
Respondents also thought the budget was more likely to be good for big businesses (34% good/10% bad), the economy overall (30%/22%) and people who are well off (36%/14%).
Compared to last year’s budget, this year’s budget was considered better (or less bad) for all groups except the economy overall where good has dropped from 40% to 30% – and bad has dropped similarly, from 32% to 22%. For all groups, those who say the budget will be neither good nor bad has increased.
Statements about the budget
Q. Please indicate whether – in general – you agree with the following statements about the Federal budget that was handed down on Tuesday 12th May.
| Total agree | Total dis-
agree
|
Strongly agree | Agree | Neither | Dis-
agree |
Strongly dis-
agree |
Don’t know | ||
| Overall, the budget is fair and balanced | 28% | 32% | 4% | 24% | 28% | 21% | 11% | 12% | |
| This budget does not do enough to reduce the deficit | 37% | 18% | 10% | 27% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 14% | |
| This was the budget Australia needs at this time | 28% | 31% | 4% | 24% | 28% | 19% | 12% | 14% | |
| This budget favours businesses over workers | 47% | 12% | 16% | 31% | 28% | 10% | 2% | 13% | |
| This budget fixes the problems in last year’s budget | 20% | 37% | 3% | 17% | 29% | 26% | 11% | 14% | |
| This budget is more about improving the Government’s popularity than improving the economy | 50% | 19% | 22% | 28% | 20% | 13% | 6% | 11% |
About half the respondents agree that the budget is “more about improving the Government’s popularity than improving the economy” (50%) and that the budget “favours businesses over workers” (47%). They were also more likely to think that the budget “does not do enough to reduce the deficit” (37% agree/18% disagree).
They were more likely to disagree that “this budget fixes the problems in last year’s budget” (20% agree/37% disagree) but split over whether the budget is “fair and balanced” or is “the budget Australia needs at this time”.
Budget Emergency
Q. Some people say that there is a “budget emergency” in Australia. Which of the following is closest to your view?
| Total
|
Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | May 2014 | |||
| I agree that there is a ‘budget emergency’ in Australia, and I believe that the recently announced budget changes will help bring the budget back into line. | 19% | 9% | 39% | 1% | 8% | 32% | ||
| I agree that there is a ‘budget emergency’ in Australia, but I don’t think the recently announced budget changes will help bring the budget back into line. | 32% | 34% | 32% | 26% | 42% | 24% | ||
| I do not believe we have a budget emergency in Australia | 30% | 40% | 19% | 54% | 31% | 32% | ||
| Don’t know | 19% | 17% | 10% | 19% | 19% | 11% |
Overall, 51% of Australians agree that there is a budget emergency – down 5% since this time last year.
19% agree that there is a budget emergency and that the recent budget will help bring the budget back into line – down 13%. 32% (up 8%) agree that there is a budget emergency, but that the recent budget will not bring the budget back into line.
30% (down 2%) do not believe there is a budget emergency.
Labor (40%) and Greens (54%) voters were more likely to think that we do not have a budget emergency in Australia.
Government financial actions
Q. The government is considering savings and taxing options to pay for the war in Iraq, lower commodity prices and its inability to pass savings from its May budget this year. Would you approve or disapprove of the following actions it might take?
|
|
Total approve |
Total dis-approve |
|
Strongly approve |
Approve |
Dis-approve |
Strongly dis-approve |
Don’t know |
| Higher corporate tax |
68% |
22% |
26% |
42% |
15% |
7% |
10% |
|
| Abandon its paid parental leave scheme |
56% |
31% |
31% |
25% |
17% |
14% |
12% |
|
| Cuts to tax concessions in areas like superannuation |
21% |
67% |
4% |
17% |
33% |
34% |
13% |
|
| Higher income taxes |
21% |
69% |
5% |
16% |
31% |
38% |
10% |
|
| Cuts to social services, health or education |
12% |
81% |
2% |
10% |
26% |
55% |
7% |
A majority approve of higher corporate tax (68%) and abandoning the paid parental leave scheme (56%) to pay for the war in Iraq, lower commodity prices and the Government’s inability to pass savings from its May budget this year.
A majority would disapprove of cuts to social services, health or education (81%), higher income taxes (69%) and cuts to tax concessions in areas like superannuation (67%).
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