2PP, Essential Report, Federal Government, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,899
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 45% | 46% | 47% | 46% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 47% | 49% | 50% | 49% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 32% | 32% | 30% | 31% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 12% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 55% | 56% | 57% | 56% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 45% | 44% | 43% | 44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax, climate change, Essential Report, federal politics, future
Q. Overall, do you think the Government’s carbon pricing scheme will be good or bad for Australia’s future?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total good | 34% | 67% | 11% | 76% |
| Total bad | 46% | 13% | 73% | 16% |
| Very good | 11% | 26% | 1% | 31% |
| Good | 23% | 41% | 10% | 45% |
| Bad | 20% | 9% | 29% | 9% |
| Very bad | 26% | 4% | 44% | 7% |
| It will make no difference | 8% | 8% | 10% | – |
| Don’t know | 12% | 13% | 7% | 7% |
34% think the carbon pricing scheme will be good for Australia and 46% think it will be bad.
By age, those aged under 35 split 42% good/36% bad, and those aged 55+ split 31% good/52% bad.
For those who consider themselves very well or somewhat informed about the carbon pricing scheme, 42% think it will be good for Australia and 48% bad.
carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax, climate change, Essential Report, federal politics, Labor, Liberal, Polling, polls
Q.Which approach do you think would be the most cost effective – the Government’s carbon pricing scheme or the Coalition’s proposal to pay companies to reduce emissions?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Government carbon pricing scheme | 33% | 69% | 10% | 60% |
| Coalition’s proposal to pay companies | 27% | 3% | 51% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 40% | 27% | 39% | 34% |
33% think that the Government’s carbon pricing scheme would be the most cost effective and 27% think the Coalition’s proposal would be more cost effective.
Strongest support for the Government’s scheme was shown by men (38%) and those aged under 35 (38%).
2PP, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,899
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 45% | 46% | 47% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 48% | 49% | 50% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 34% | 32% | 32% | 30% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 12% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 55% | 56% | 57% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 45% | 44% | 43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Approval of opposition leader, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
29 Mar | 5 Jul | 20 Sep | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | |
| Total approve | 37% | 33% | 37% | 43% | 39% | 42% | 38% | 38% | 36% | 42% | 38% | 39% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 50% | 47% | 37% | 39% | 37% | 46% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 48% | 49% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 32% | 25% | 29% | 31% | 30% | 35% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 34% | 32% | 33% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 28% | 23% | 21% | 21% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 24% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 22% | 24% | 16% | 18% | 15% | 22% | 23% | 23% | 19% | 23% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 16% | 19% | 22% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 11% |
39% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 49% (up 1%) disapprove – no change in net rating (-10%) over the last 4 weeks.
73% of Coalition voters approve and 19% disapprove.
By gender – men 44% approve/48% disapprove, women 35% approve/51% disapprove.
Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, preferred PM, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 37% | 85% | 6% | 68% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 39% | 5% | 75% | 9% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 10% | 19% | 24% | 23% |
37% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% prefer Tony Abbott – the first time that Tony Abbott has been preferred over Julia Gillard – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 7% on last month’s figures (from +5% to -2%).
Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/36% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/36%.
Election, Essential Report, federal politics, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, voting, voting system
Q. If voting at elections was voluntary (i.e. not compulsory) – how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total definitely/probably vote | 82% | 85% | 89% | 78% |
| Total definitely/probably not vote | 14% | 12% | 9% | 19% |
| Would definitely vote | 59% | 62% | 65% | 61% |
| Would probably vote | 23% | 23% | 24% | 17% |
| Probably wouldn’t vote | 10% | 8% | 7% | 18% |
| Definitely wouldn’t vote | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
82% said they would definitely or probably vote if voting was voluntary. 14% said they definitely or probably would not vote.
Coalition and Labor voters were more likely to vote and Greens voters somewhat less likely.
By age, 73% of those aged under 35 said they would vote compared to 82% of those aged 35-54 and 91% of those aged 55+.
The estimated vote excluding those who would probably or definitely not vote produces a first preference vote of 52% Liberal/National, 30% Labor, 11% Greens and 7% other. The two-party preferred estimate is 58% Liberal/National and 42% Labor (compared to the current estimate of 57%/43%) – suggesting that voluntary voting would only very slightly advantage the Coalition.
business, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, voter interests
Q. Do you think the Labor Party is more concerned about the interests of big business or voters – or do they balance the interests of both?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| More concerned about big business | 33% | 18% | 41% | 30% |
| More concerned about voters | 22% | 18% | 29% | 20% |
| Balance interests of both | 23% | 50% | 10% | 27% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 14% | 20% | 23% |
33% think the Labor Party are more concerned about the interests of big business and 22% think they are more concerned about voters’ interests. 23% think they balance the interests of both.