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  • Jul, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,899

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 45% 46% 47% 46%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6 47% 49% 50% 49%
    Labor 38.0 32% 32% 30% 31%
    Greens 11.8 12% 11% 11% 11%
    Other/Independent 6.6 9% 9% 9% 9%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 55% 56% 57% 56%
    Labor 50.1% 45% 44% 43% 44%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Good or Bad for Australia

    Q. Overall, do you think the Government’s carbon pricing scheme will be good or bad for Australia’s future?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total good 34% 67% 11% 76%
    Total bad 46% 13% 73% 16%
    Very good 11% 26% 1% 31%
    Good 23% 41% 10% 45%
    Bad 20% 9% 29% 9%
    Very bad 26% 4% 44% 7%
    It will make no difference 8% 8% 10%
    Don’t know 12% 13% 7% 7%

    34% think the carbon pricing scheme will be good for Australia and 46% think it will be bad.

    By age, those aged under 35 split 42% good/36% bad, and those aged 55+ split 31% good/52% bad.

    For those who consider themselves very well or somewhat informed about the carbon pricing scheme, 42% think it will be good for Australia and 48% bad.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Most Cost Effective Policy

    Q.Which approach do you think would be the most cost effective – the Government’s carbon pricing scheme or the Coalition’s proposal to pay companies to reduce emissions?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Government carbon pricing scheme 33% 69% 10% 60%
    Coalition’s proposal to pay companies 27% 3% 51% 6%
    Don’t know 40% 27% 39% 34%

    33% think that the Government’s carbon pricing scheme would be the most cost effective and 27% think the Coalition’s proposal would be more cost effective.

    Strongest support for the Government’s scheme was shown by men (38%) and those aged under 35 (38%).

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,899

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 44% 45% 46% 47%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 48% 49% 50%
    Labor 38.0 34% 32% 32% 30%
    Greens 11.8 12% 11% 11% 11%
    Other/Independent 6.6 8% 9% 9% 9%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 55% 56% 57%
    Labor 50.1% 46% 45% 44% 43%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

    18 Jan

    2010

    29 Mar 5 Jul 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June 11 July
    Total approve 37% 33% 37% 43% 39% 42% 38% 38% 36% 42% 38% 39%
    Total disapprove 37% 50% 47% 37% 39% 37% 46% 47% 48% 44% 48% 49%
    Strongly approve 5% 8% 8% 12% 9% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 6% 6%
    Approve 32% 25% 29% 31% 30% 35% 30% 31% 29% 34% 32% 33%
    Disapprove 20% 28% 23% 21% 21% 22% 24% 24% 25% 25% 25% 24%
    Strongly disapprove 17% 22% 24% 16% 18% 15% 22% 23% 23% 19% 23% 25%
    Don’t know 26% 16% 16% 19% 22% 20% 16% 16% 17% 14% 15% 11%

    39% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 49% (up 1%) disapprove – no change in net rating (-10%) over the last 4 weeks.

    73% of Coalition voters approve and 19% disapprove.

    By gender – men 44% approve/48% disapprove, women 35% approve/51% disapprove.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

    5 Jul 2010 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June 11 July Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

    21 Jun 10

    Julia Gillard 53% 47% 48% 44% 42% 43% 41% 37% 85% 6% 68% 47%
    Tony Abbott 26% 32% 31% 33% 33% 35% 36% 39% 5% 75% 9% 30%
    Don’t know 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 22% 24% 24% 10% 19% 24% 23%

    37% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% prefer Tony Abbott – the first time that Tony Abbott has been preferred over Julia Gillard – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 7% on last month’s figures (from +5% to -2%).

    Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/36% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/36%.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Voluntary Voting

    Q. If voting at elections was voluntary (i.e. not compulsory) – how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total definitely/probably vote 82% 85% 89% 78%
    Total definitely/probably not vote 14% 12% 9% 19%
    Would definitely vote 59% 62% 65% 61%
    Would probably vote 23% 23% 24% 17%
    Probably wouldn’t vote 10% 8% 7% 18%
    Definitely wouldn’t vote 4% 4% 2% 1%
    Don’t know 4% 3% 1% 3%

    82% said they would definitely or probably vote if voting was voluntary. 14% said they definitely or probably would not vote.

    Coalition and Labor voters were more likely to vote and Greens voters somewhat less likely.

    By age, 73% of those aged under 35 said they would vote compared to 82% of those aged 35-54 and 91% of those aged 55+.

    The estimated vote excluding those who would probably or definitely not vote produces a first preference vote of 52% Liberal/National, 30% Labor, 11% Greens and 7% other. The two-party preferred estimate is 58% Liberal/National and 42% Labor (compared to the current estimate of 57%/43%) – suggesting that voluntary voting would only very slightly advantage the Coalition.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Party Interests – Labor Party

    Q. Do you think the Labor Party is more concerned about the interests of big business or voters – or do they balance the interests of both?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    More concerned about big business 33% 18% 41% 30%
    More concerned about voters 22% 18% 29% 20%
    Balance interests of both 23% 50% 10% 27%
    Don’t know 22% 14% 20% 23%

    33% think the Labor Party are more concerned about the interests of big business and 22% think they are more concerned about voters’ interests. 23% think they balance the interests of both.

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